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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Arenas de Getxo Arenas de Getxo ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-0 ✔ Correcto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.93
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Arenas de Getxo win · Arenas de Getxo 1–0 Zamora CF
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
B-
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): +37.5%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
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"decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
"facts": {
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"away_win_prob": null,
"btts_no_prob": 0.438,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.562,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": null,
"fair_odds_away": null,
"fair_odds_draw": null,
"fair_odds_home": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.45,
"home_win_prob": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.506,
"prediction_confidence": "none",
"under_25_prob": 0.494
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Zamora CF",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Zamora CF"
},
"away_xg": 1.25,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Arenas de Getxo",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.1143,
"edge_gap": 0.092,
"market": "1X2",
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"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 25.7,
"home": 41.8
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": null
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 9,
"away_played": 37,
"away_score_rate": 75.7,
"home_clean_sheet": 6,
"home_failed_to_score": 13,
"home_played": 37,
"home_score_rate": 64.9,
"no_prob": 50.9,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 50.9,
"source": "stats",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 49.1
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"correct_score": {
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"home_expected": 1.15,
"scores": [
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"label": "1-1",
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{
"away": 1,
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"label": "0-1",
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{
"away": 2,
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{
"away": 0,
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{
"away": 2,
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"label": "0-2",
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],
"source": "avg"
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"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Arenas de Getxo or Draw",
"prob": 55.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Arenas de Getxo or Zamora CF",
"prob": 55.0
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Zamora CF",
"prob": 90.0
}
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"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Zamora CF",
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"match_winner": {
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"draw_pct": 45.0,
"home_pct": 10.0,
"lean_key": "draw",
"lean_label": "Draw"
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"over_under": {
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"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.4,
"confidence": "low",
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"pick": "Over 2.5",
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"source": "avg",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": null,
"value_bet_enhanced": null
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Zamora CF",
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Arenas de Getxo",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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{
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"movement": [
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{
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{
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"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
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"correct_score_insight": {
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"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
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},
"home_xg": 1.45,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
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"ev_over": 0.0459,
"ev_over_display": {
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"raw_pct": 4.6,
"text": "+4.6%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1194,
"ev_under_display": {
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"raw_pct": -11.9,
"text": "-11.9%"
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"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"over_prob": 48.2,
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"tier": "best",
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{
"decision": "small_edge",
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"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
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{
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"ev_no_display": {
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"ev_yes": -0.0622,
"ev_yes_display": {
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"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
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"tier": "bad_ev",
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{
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"tier": "risk",
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],
"match": {
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"away_team_id": 9418,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/9418.webp",
"away_team_name": "Zamora CF",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
"country_name": "Spain",
"fixture_id": 1431879,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 9578,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/9578.webp",
"home_team_name": "Arenas de Getxo",
"league_country": "Spain",
"league_id": 435,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/435.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Federaci\u00f3n - Grupo 1",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-24 16:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
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"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
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"away": {
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"best_odd": 2.22,
"calibration": {
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"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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"ev": -0.1775,
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"ev": -0.1447,
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"home": {
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},
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"best_yes_odd": 1.91,
"edge_no": 0.011,
"edge_yes": -0.011,
"ev_available": true,
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"implied_no": 0.498,
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"n_bookmakers": 8,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
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"edge_over": 0.0379,
"edge_under": -0.0379,
"ev_available": true,
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"implied_over": 0.4441,
"implied_under": 0.5559,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.1.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0459,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
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"breakdown_resolved": [
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],
"score": 4.0
},
"execution": {
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"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
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"draw_prob": 0.2567,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4177,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.2
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
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"ev": 0.0459,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4441,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "over",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
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"edge": 0.0426,
"ev": 0.0137,
"implied_prob": 0.3034,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Arenas de Getxo"
},
"btts": {
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"edge": 0.011,
"ev": -0.0482,
"implied_prob": 0.498,
"model_prob": 0.509,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
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"edge": 0.0379,
"ev": 0.0459,
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"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1431879,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0459,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3257,
"draw": 0.2567,
"home": 0.4177
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Zamora CF",
"home": "Arenas de Getxo"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1
}
},
"fixture_id": 1431879,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-24T19:07:08.218947+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Primera Federación - Grupo 1 — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tenerife | 38 | 22 | 10 | 6 | 76 |
| 2 | Celta de Vigo II | 38 | 18 | 11 | 9 | 65 |
| 3 | Zamora CF | 38 | 17 | 10 | 11 | 61 |
| 4 | Ponferradina | 38 | 17 | 9 | 12 | 60 |
| 5 | Real Madrid U21 | 36 | 16 | 8 | 12 | 56 |
| 5 | Real Madrid Castilla | 38 | 16 | 10 | 12 | 58 |
| 6 | Pontevedra | 38 | 14 | 16 | 8 | 58 |
| 7 | Barakaldo CF | 38 | 15 | 13 | 10 | 58 |
| 8 | Unionistas de Salamanca | 38 | 15 | 11 | 12 | 56 |
| 9 | Lugo | 38 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 53 |
| 10 | Mérida AD | 38 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 52 |
| 11 | Arenas de Getxo | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 52 |
| 12 | Racing de Ferrol | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 49 |
| 13 | Athletic Club B | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 49 |
| 14 | Real Avilés | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 44 |
| 15 | Cacereño | 38 | 10 | 14 | 14 | 44 |
| 16 | CF Talavera | 38 | 11 | 10 | 17 | 43 |
| 17 | Ourense CF | 38 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 43 |
| 18 | Guadalajara | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 41 |
| 19 | Osasuna Promesas | 38 | 10 | 10 | 18 | 40 |
| 20 | CD Arenteiro | 38 | 6 | 10 | 22 | 28 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tenerife | 38 | 62 | 24 | +38 | 76 |
| 2 | Celta de Vigo II | 38 | 61 | 48 | +13 | 65 |
| 3 | Real Madrid Castilla | 38 | 61 | 52 | +9 | 58 |
| 4 | Real Madrid U21 | 36 | 56 | 47 | +9 | 56 |
| 5 | Real Avilés | 38 | 55 | 67 | -12 | 44 |
| 6 | Zamora CF | 38 | 53 | 42 | +11 | 61 |
| 7 | Unionistas de Salamanca | 38 | 53 | 49 | +4 | 56 |
| 8 | Barakaldo CF | 38 | 51 | 38 | +13 | 58 |
| 9 | Pontevedra | 38 | 49 | 31 | +18 | 58 |
| 10 | Mérida AD | 38 | 47 | 53 | -6 | 52 |
| 11 | Arenas de Getxo | 38 | 46 | 55 | -9 | 52 |
| 12 | Ourense CF | 38 | 44 | 47 | -3 | 43 |
| 13 | Guadalajara | 38 | 44 | 58 | -14 | 41 |
| 14 | Ponferradina | 38 | 43 | 33 | +10 | 60 |
| 15 | Cacereño | 38 | 42 | 49 | -7 | 44 |
| 16 | Racing de Ferrol | 38 | 41 | 47 | -6 | 49 |
| 17 | Athletic Club B | 38 | 38 | 46 | -8 | 49 |
| 18 | CF Talavera | 38 | 38 | 47 | -9 | 43 |
| 19 | Lugo | 38 | 36 | 40 | -4 | 53 |
| 20 | CD Arenteiro | 38 | 29 | 53 | -24 | 28 |
| 21 | Osasuna Promesas | 38 | 28 | 42 | -14 | 40 |
