The model missed the final outcome (Racing de Ferrol win 1–0).
The model had projected Barakaldo CF at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Barakaldo CF Racing de Ferrol ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing de Ferrol | 31.9% | 49.2% | -17.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 28.0% | +1.6 pp | Aligned |
| Barakaldo CF | 38.5% | 22.8% | +15.7 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Racing de Ferrol's win probability at 49.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.9%, a difference of 17.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Racing de Ferrol win 1–0.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Racing de Ferrol than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Barakaldo CF by 17.3 percentage points (55.8% vs model 38.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Racing de Ferrol 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Barakaldo CF 38.5%
- xG · Racing de Ferrol 1.23 — Barakaldo CF 1.37
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 14:21 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE10
- 1X2 odds · Racing de Ferrol 1.85 · Draw 3.25 · Barakaldo CF 4.00
- Implied 1X2 · Racing de Ferrol 49.2% · Draw 28.0% · Barakaldo CF 22.8%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Racing de Ferrol 1.85 · Draw 3.25 · Barakaldo CF 4.00
- Implied 1X2 · Racing de Ferrol 49.2% · Draw 28.0% · Barakaldo CF 22.8%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Racing de Ferrol win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
54/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (17 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
4/100
Monitoring Confidence
19/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.85
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Racing de Ferrol win · Racing de Ferrol 1–0 Barakaldo CF
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
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"api_prediction": {
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
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},
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},
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"pick": "Yes",
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"correct_score": {
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{
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{
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{
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{
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],
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{
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{
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],
"pick_key": "12",
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"match_winner": {
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"over_under": {
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"prob_source": "poisson",
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},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 14:30:20",
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"has_data": true,
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"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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]
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{
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},
"ev_available": true,
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},
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},
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{
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"raw_edge_pp": 5.2,
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"under": {
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"edge": -0.0119,
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},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1086,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 10.9,
"text": "+10.9%"
},
"ev_under": -0.166,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.6,
"text": "-16.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1086,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10097.74,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Barakaldo CF, but the model still strongly favours Barakaldo CF.",
"consensus_odds": 4.0,
"decision": "small_edge",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.0066,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.7,
"text": "+0.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2276,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0066,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.7,
"text": "+0.7%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+15.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5384,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+53.8%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Barakaldo CF",
"sort_key": 5205.28,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/5",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/5 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +42.9%",
"alert_team": "Barakaldo CF",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 17.3,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -17.28,
"hero_label": "Racing de Ferrol",
"market_prob_pct": 22.8,
"market_team": "Racing de Ferrol",
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"model_team": "Barakaldo CF",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 89,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 17.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.3,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Barakaldo CF, but the model still strongly favours Barakaldo CF."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 17.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.3,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Barakaldo CF, but the model still strongly favours Barakaldo CF."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1424,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5385,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Barakaldo CF at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 22.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Barakaldo CF as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 15.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Barakaldo CF, but the model still strongly favours Barakaldo CF.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Barakaldo CF",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Barakaldo CF \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.83 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +54% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1570751 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.83 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +14.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Barakaldo CF, but the model still strongly favours Barakaldo CF.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +54% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Barakaldo CF, but the model still strongly favours Barakaldo CF.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0066,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.7%",
"consensus_odds": 4.0,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2276,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+15.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.25,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5384,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+53.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "5/5",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (17 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 16.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 57,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 17.28,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 17.28,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.37,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.23,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.37,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.23 \u00b7 Away xG 1.37 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 42.9,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +42.9%",
"steam_team": "Barakaldo CF",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 7,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 7,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Barakaldo CF, but the model still strongly favours Barakaldo CF.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 17.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.3,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Barakaldo CF, but the model still strongly favours Barakaldo CF."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 17.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.3,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Barakaldo CF, but the model still strongly favours Barakaldo CF."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1424,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5385,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Barakaldo CF at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 22.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Barakaldo CF as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 15.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Barakaldo CF, but the model still strongly favours Barakaldo CF.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Barakaldo CF",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Barakaldo CF \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.83 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +54% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1570751 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.83 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +14.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Barakaldo CF, but the model still strongly favours Barakaldo CF.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +54% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Barakaldo CF, but the model still strongly favours Barakaldo CF.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0066,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.7%",
"consensus_odds": 4.0,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2276,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+15.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.25,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5384,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+53.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Barakaldo CF, but the model still strongly favours Barakaldo CF.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Racing de Ferrol 1.23 xG vs Barakaldo CF 1.37 \u2192 Barakaldo CF 38.5%",
"Market: Racing de Ferrol ~22.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Barakaldo CF odds \u2191 +42.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Barakaldo CF, but the market has moved away from Barakaldo CF.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -17.28,
"fair_prob": 31.94,
"label": "Racing de Ferrol",
"market_prob": 49.22,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.55,
"fair_prob": 29.57,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.02,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 15.73,
"fair_prob": 38.49,
"label": "Barakaldo CF",
"market_prob": 22.76,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.74,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.46,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.74,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.54,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.35,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 47.05,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.35,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 52.95,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -17.28,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Racing de Ferrol",
"market_prob_pct": 49.22,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Barakaldo CF"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Racing de Ferrol\u0027s win probability at 49.2%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 31.9%, a difference of 17.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 17.28,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Barakaldo CF",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 22.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+15.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 15.7,
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+15.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 15.7,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 57,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Barakaldo CF, but the model still strongly favours Barakaldo CF. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 7,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 7,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Racing de Ferrol 1.23 xG vs Barakaldo CF 1.37 \u2192 Barakaldo CF 38.5%",
"Market: Racing de Ferrol ~22.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Barakaldo CF odds \u2191 +42.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Barakaldo CF, but the market has moved away from Barakaldo CF.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -17.28,
"hero_label": "Racing de Ferrol",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Barakaldo CF odds lengthened \u2191 +42.9%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Barakaldo CF has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 42.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Racing de Ferrol than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from Barakaldo CF \u2014 odds lengthened by 42.9% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Racing de Ferrol than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Barakaldo CF has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 42.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Barakaldo CF \u2014 odds lengthened by 42.9% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Racing de Ferrol more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Barakaldo CF has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 42.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (5/5) supports the current market view on Barakaldo CF."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 17.28,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 6.6 pp (at 38.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 6.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Racing de Ferrol",
"largest_gap_pp": -17.3,
"lead": "The closing market prices Racing de Ferrol higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 17.3,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -17.28,
"edge_pp": -17.28,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Racing de Ferrol",
"market_prob_pct": 49.22,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.55,
"edge_pp": 1.55,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.57,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.02,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 15.73,
"edge_pp": 15.73,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.49,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Barakaldo CF",
"market_prob_pct": 22.76,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Barakaldo CF \u2014 odds lengthened by 42.9% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Racing de Ferrol (22.8%).",
"However, Barakaldo CF has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +42.9%, 5/5) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Barakaldo CF, Market \u2192 Racing de Ferrol, while Barakaldo CF odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 54.05,
"closing_odds": 1.85,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 54.05,
"entry_odds": 1.85,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +42.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 42.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +30.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 30.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +20.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +19.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 19.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +17.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.9
}
],
"books_total": 5,
"breadth_display": "5/5",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.0,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +42.9%",
"move_pct_abs": 42.9,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 22h 14m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"5/5 books lengthened Barakaldo CF together (42.9% drift, score 89) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Broad multi-book drift \u2014 odds lengthened across sportsbooks (market fade)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 42.9,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.00",
"3.40",
"2.80"
],
"display": "4.00 \u2192 2.73 \u2192 4.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 22h 14m",
"pick_team": "Barakaldo CF",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.00"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.73"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.8,
4.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.8,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Barakaldo CF odds \u2191 +42.9% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Barakaldo CF",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Barakaldo CF odds \u2191 +42.9% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.0,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +42.9%",
"open_odds": 2.8,
"summary": "Market moved away from Barakaldo CF while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Barakaldo CF",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 89,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/5",
"current_odds": 4.0,
"move_display": "\u2191 +42.9%",
"open_odds": 2.8,
"pick_team": "Barakaldo CF",
"steam_score": 89,
"steam_team_name": "Barakaldo CF",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 17.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "barakaldo",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Barakaldo CF",
"away_team_id": 5251,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/5251.webp",
"away_team_name": "Barakaldo CF",
"away_team_public_id": "3lqL3xlh6LsVCA",
"away_team_slug": "barakaldo",
"country_code": "ES",
"country_display_name": "Spain",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
"country_id": 145,
"country_name": "Spain",
"fixture_id": 1570751,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Spain",
"home_team_display_name": "Racing de Ferrol",
"home_team_id": 9409,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/9409.webp",
"home_team_name": "Racing de Ferrol",
"home_team_public_id": "592EsJqTENDpWl",
"home_team_slug": "racing-ferrol",
"ht.home_team_slug": "racing-ferrol",
"league_country": "Spain",
"league_country_display": "Spain",
"league_display_name": "Primera Federaci\u00f3n - Grupo 1",
"league_id": 435,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/435.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Federaci\u00f3n - Grupo 1",
"league_public_id": "2rWGCckC2HCYNB",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 14:30:00",
"public_id": "3E5wKB5CGng2IB",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Ferrol",
"venue_name": "Estadio Municipal da Malata"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1529,
"best_odd": 4.0,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.024,
"ev": 0.0066,
"implied_prob": 0.2276,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2276,
"draw": 0.2802,
"home": 0.4922
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"p_final": 0.2516
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2929,
"best_odd": 3.25,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0046,
"ev": -0.0745,
"implied_prob": 0.2802,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2276,
"draw": 0.2802,
"home": 0.4922
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.2848
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4446,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0768,
"ev": -0.2315,
"implied_prob": 0.4922,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2276,
"draw": 0.2802,
"home": 0.4922
},
"model_prob": 0.3195,
"p_final": 0.4154
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.0,
"edge": 0.1346,
"ev": 0.5385,
"implied_prob": 0.25,
"model_prob": 0.3846
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.25,
"edge": -0.0118,
"ev": -0.0384,
"implied_prob": 0.3077,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": -0.221,
"ev": -0.4089,
"implied_prob": 0.5405,
"model_prob": 0.3195
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2223,
"alpha_yes": 0.202,
"best_no_odd": 1.8,
"best_yes_odd": 2.1,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0735,
"edge_yes": 0.0735,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1792,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1171,
"ev_yes": 0.1424,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0646,
"implied_no": 0.5295,
"implied_yes": 0.4705,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2223,
"best_odd": 1.735,
"edge": -0.0151,
"ev": -0.1171,
"implied_prob": 0.524,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5089
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.202,
"best_odd": 1.91,
"edge": 0.0137,
"ev": -0.0646,
"implied_prob": 0.476,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4897
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.5089,
"p_final_yes": 0.4897,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2074,
"alpha_under": 0.2281,
"best_over_odd": 2.3,
"best_under_odd": 1.61,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.13,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.605,
"edge_over": 0.0574,
"edge_under": -0.0574,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1086,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0616,
"ev_under": -0.166,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1038,
"implied_over": 0.4246,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4297,
"implied_under": 0.5754,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5703,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2074,
"best_odd": 2.13,
"edge": 0.0108,
"ev": -0.0616,
"implied_prob": 0.4297,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4406
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2281,
"best_odd": 1.605,
"edge": -0.0119,
"ev": -0.1038,
"implied_prob": 0.5703,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5584
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4406,
"p_final_under": 0.5584,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1424,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5385,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1424,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.9
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 17.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.3,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Barakaldo CF, but the model still strongly favours Barakaldo CF."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1424,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5385,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Barakaldo CF at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 22.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Barakaldo CF as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 15.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Barakaldo CF, but the model still strongly favours Barakaldo CF.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Barakaldo CF",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Barakaldo CF \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.83 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +54% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1570751 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.83 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +14.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Barakaldo CF, but the model still strongly favours Barakaldo CF.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +54% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Barakaldo CF, but the model still strongly favours Barakaldo CF.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0066,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.7%",
"consensus_odds": 4.0,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2276,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+15.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.25,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5384,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+53.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3846,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.14
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 4.0,
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.024,
"ev": 0.0066,
"implied_prob": 0.2276,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Barakaldo CF"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.202,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"edge": 0.0137,
"market_prob": 0.476,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2223,
"best_odd": 1.735,
"edge": -0.0151,
"ev": -0.1171,
"implied_prob": 0.524,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5089
},
"p_final": 0.4897,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0646,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.202,
"best_odd": 1.91,
"edge": 0.0137,
"ev": -0.0646,
"implied_prob": 0.476,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4897
}
},
"edge": 0.0735,
"ev": 0.1424,
"implied_prob": 0.4705,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2074,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"edge": 0.0108,
"market_prob": 0.4297,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2074,
"best_odd": 2.13,
"edge": 0.0108,
"ev": -0.0616,
"implied_prob": 0.4297,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4406
},
"p_final": 0.4406,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0616,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2281,
"best_odd": 1.605,
"edge": -0.0119,
"ev": -0.1038,
"implied_prob": 0.5703,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5584
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0574,
"ev": 0.1086,
"implied_prob": 0.4246,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1570751,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1424,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3846,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3195
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1086,
"implied_prob": 0.4246,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1086,
"implied_prob": 0.4246,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Barakaldo CF",
"home": "Racing de Ferrol"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.077466,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1424,
"implied_prob": 0.4705,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0066,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.7%",
"consensus_odds": 4.0,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2276,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+15.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.25,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5384,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+53.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1570751,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T14:30:24.212597+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Primera Federación - Grupo 1 — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lugo | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 2 | Athletic Club B | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 3 | UD Logroñés | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 4 | Cacereño | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 5 | Deportivo La Coruña B | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 6 | Cultural Leonesa | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 7 | Real Unión | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | Mirandés | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Pontevedra | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Ponferradina | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | Zamora CF | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 12 | Racing de Ferrol | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 13 | CD Coria | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 14 | Real Avilés | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 15 | Barakaldo CF | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 16 | Mérida AD | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 17 | Extremadura 1924 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 18 | Unionistas de Salamanca | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 19 | Arenas de Getxo | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| 20 | UD Ourense | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Unión | 5 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 7 |
| 2 | Athletic Club B | 5 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 11 |
| 3 | UD Logroñés | 4 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 10 |
| 4 | Mirandés | 4 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 7 |
| 5 | CD Coria | 5 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 5 |
| 6 | Lugo | 5 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 13 |
| 7 | Deportivo La Coruña B | 5 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 8 |
| 8 | Pontevedra | 4 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 7 |
| 9 | Unionistas de Salamanca | 4 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3 |
| 10 | Cacereño | 4 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 10 |
| 11 | Zamora CF | 5 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | Racing de Ferrol | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 7 |
| 13 | Real Avilés | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| 14 | Cultural Leonesa | 5 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 8 |
| 15 | Mérida AD | 4 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 3 |
| 16 | Ponferradina | 4 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 7 |
| 17 | Arenas de Getxo | 5 | 3 | 13 | -10 | 1 |
| 18 | Barakaldo CF | 4 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 4 |
| 19 | Extremadura 1924 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3 |
| 20 | UD Ourense | 4 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 0 |
