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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Más / Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Atlético Madrid II Atlético Madrid II ✔ Correct
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1 4-3 ✖ Incorrect
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "45b35e91a36ab738dd77deee4f49efedff355fb0c4ec8ddb06f09bc25d820ec7",
"decision_algo_version": "2.0.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.25,
"away_win_prob": null,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": null,
"fair_odds_away": null,
"fair_odds_draw": null,
"fair_odds_home": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.45,
"home_win_prob": null,
"prediction_confidence": "none"
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Sabadell",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Sabadell"
},
"away_xg": 1.25,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Atl\u00e9tico Madrid II",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.019,
"edge_gap": 0.092,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3987,
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 32.6,
"draw": 25.7,
"home": 41.8
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": null
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 21,
"away_failed_to_score": 11,
"away_played": 35,
"away_score_rate": 68.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 13,
"home_failed_to_score": 8,
"home_played": 35,
"home_score_rate": 77.1,
"no_prob": 47.1,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 52.9,
"source": "stats",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 52.9
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.25,
"home_expected": 1.1,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 11.9
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
}
],
"source": "avg"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Atl\u00e9tico Madrid II or Draw",
"prob": 55.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Atl\u00e9tico Madrid II or Sabadell",
"prob": 55.0
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Sabadell",
"prob": 90.0
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Sabadell",
"pick_prob": 90.0
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 45.0,
"draw_pct": 45.0,
"home_pct": 10.0,
"lean_key": "draw",
"lean_label": "Draw"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.35,
"away_avg_scored": 1.4,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.6,
"over_prob": 41.7,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 58.3,
"source": "avg",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 2.35,
"under_prob": 58.3
},
"prob_source": null,
"value_bet_enhanced": null
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.1
}
},
"home_xg": 1.45,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1475,
"ev_yes": 0.058,
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.058,
"no_prob": 47.1,
"sort_key": 10202.2,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 52.9
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0617,
"ev_under": -0.0555,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": -0.0555,
"over_prob": 41.7,
"sort_key": 1786.125,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"under_prob": 58.3,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev": -0.064,
"ev_available": true,
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3987,
"max_ev": -0.0638,
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"side_label": "Atl\u00e9tico Madrid II",
"sort_key": 1784.05,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 819.3,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 13.1
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 9593,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/9593.webp",
"away_team_name": "Sabadell",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
"country_name": "Spain",
"fixture_id": 1431480,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 9570,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/9570.webp",
"home_team_name": "Atl\u00e9tico Madrid II",
"league_country": "Spain",
"league_id": 436,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/436.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Group 2",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-10 16:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2901,
"best_odd": 3.02,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0064,
"ev": -0.0638,
"implied_prob": 0.3036,
"model_prob": 0.3257,
"p_final": 0.31
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2815,
"best_odd": 3.08,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0115,
"ev": -0.1186,
"implied_prob": 0.2977,
"model_prob": 0.2567,
"p_final": 0.2862
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4372,
"best_odd": 2.3,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0083,
"ev": -0.064,
"implied_prob": 0.3987,
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"p_final": 0.407
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.81,
"best_yes_odd": 2.0,
"edge_no": -0.0471,
"edge_yes": 0.0471,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1475,
"ev_yes": 0.058,
"implied_no": 0.5181,
"implied_yes": 0.4819,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 2.25,
"best_under_odd": 1.62,
"edge_over": -0.0022,
"edge_under": 0.0022,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0617,
"ev_under": -0.0555,
"implied_over": 0.4192,
"implied_under": 0.5808,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.0.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.058,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"score": 5.0
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.529,
"draw_prob": 0.2567,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4177,
"over_prob": 0.417,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"under_prob": 0.583,
"xg_diff": 0.2
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0083,
"ev": -0.064,
"implied_prob": 0.3987,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Atl\u00e9tico Madrid II"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0471,
"ev": 0.058,
"implied_prob": 0.4819,
"model_prob": 0.529,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": 0.0022,
"ev": -0.0555,
"implied_prob": 0.5808,
"model_prob": 0.583,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1431480,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.058,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3257,
"draw": 0.2567,
"home": 0.4177
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Sabadell",
"home": "Atl\u00e9tico Madrid II"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.030682,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.058,
"implied_prob": 0.4819,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.529,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1
}
},
"fixture_id": 1431480,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-10T16:00:31.379434+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
- Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
- No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
- Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.
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Primera División RFEF - Group 2 — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eldense | 37 | 19 | 12 | 6 | 69 |
| 2 | Sabadell | 37 | 17 | 14 | 6 | 65 |
| 3 | Atlético Madrid II | 37 | 18 | 10 | 9 | 64 |
| 4 | Villarreal II | 37 | 16 | 14 | 7 | 62 |
| 5 | Europa Fc | 37 | 15 | 12 | 10 | 57 |
| 6 | FC Cartagena | 37 | 15 | 11 | 11 | 56 |
| 7 | Algeciras | 37 | 15 | 10 | 12 | 55 |
| 8 | Hércules | 37 | 14 | 11 | 12 | 53 |
| 9 | Antequera | 37 | 15 | 8 | 14 | 53 |
| 10 | Ibiza | 37 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 50 |
| 11 | Alcorcon | 37 | 12 | 14 | 11 | 50 |
| 12 | Real Murcia | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 49 |
| 13 | Teruel | 37 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 49 |
| 14 | Juventud Torremolinos | 37 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 46 |
| 15 | Gimnastic | 37 | 13 | 7 | 17 | 46 |
| 16 | Tarazona | 37 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 45 |
| 17 | Real Betis II | 37 | 12 | 8 | 17 | 44 |
| 18 | Marbella | 37 | 8 | 7 | 22 | 31 |
| 19 | Sanluqueño | 37 | 7 | 9 | 21 | 30 |
| 20 | Sevilla Atletico | 37 | 5 | 12 | 20 | 27 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atlético Madrid II | 37 | 61 | 43 | +18 | 64 |
| 2 | Eldense | 37 | 57 | 36 | +21 | 69 |
| 3 | Villarreal II | 37 | 53 | 31 | +22 | 62 |
| 4 | Europa Fc | 37 | 52 | 48 | +4 | 57 |
| 5 | Sabadell | 37 | 51 | 27 | +24 | 65 |
| 6 | Real Betis II | 37 | 46 | 57 | -11 | 44 |
| 7 | Antequera | 37 | 44 | 43 | +1 | 53 |
| 8 | Juventud Torremolinos | 37 | 44 | 48 | -4 | 46 |
| 9 | Alcorcon | 37 | 43 | 37 | +6 | 50 |
| 10 | Ibiza | 37 | 42 | 35 | +7 | 50 |
| 11 | Hércules | 37 | 42 | 40 | +2 | 53 |
| 12 | Real Murcia | 37 | 40 | 40 | 0 | 49 |
| 13 | Algeciras | 37 | 39 | 38 | +1 | 55 |
| 14 | Gimnastic | 37 | 39 | 48 | -9 | 46 |
| 15 | FC Cartagena | 37 | 35 | 36 | -1 | 56 |
| 16 | Marbella | 37 | 33 | 54 | -21 | 31 |
| 17 | Tarazona | 37 | 31 | 38 | -7 | 45 |
| 18 | Teruel | 37 | 26 | 30 | -4 | 49 |
| 19 | Sanluqueño | 37 | 26 | 52 | -26 | 30 |
| 20 | Sevilla Atletico | 37 | 20 | 43 | -23 | 27 |
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