Marumo Gallants vs Richards Bay Statistics & Analysis

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      "away_win_prob": 0.3148,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.376,
      "fair_odds_away": 3.18,
      "fair_odds_draw": 2.66,
      "fair_odds_home": 3.23,
      "home_predicted_xg": 0.84,
      "home_win_prob": 0.3092,
      "prediction_confidence": "high"
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Richards Bay and -3.5 goals",
      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "45%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "10%",
      "winner_name": "Richards Bay"
    },
    "away_xg": 0.85,
    "betting_insight": {
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        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
        "edge": 0.076,
        "edge_gap": 0.0615,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.3,
        "model_prob": 0.3759,
        "pick_type": "no_strong",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 31.4,
          "draw": 37.6,
          "home": 31.0
        },
        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
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        "away_failed_to_score": 10,
        "away_played": 27,
        "away_score_rate": 57.3,
        "home_clean_sheet": 2,
        "home_failed_to_score": 13,
        "home_played": 27,
        "home_score_rate": 56.8,
        "no_prob": 65.8,
        "pick": "No",
        "pick_prob": 65.8,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 34.2
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        "home_expected": 0.84,
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            "away": 0,
            "home": 0,
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            "prob": 18.5
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          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-1",
            "prob": 15.7
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            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
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            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
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            "prob": 13.2
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          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-2",
            "prob": 6.7
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Marumo Gallants or Draw",
            "prob": 68.5
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Marumo Gallants or Richards Bay",
            "prob": 62.4
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Richards Bay",
            "prob": 69.1
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "X2",
        "pick_label": "Draw or Richards Bay",
        "pick_prob": 69.1
      },
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        "away_pct": 31.5,
        "draw_pct": 37.6,
        "home_pct": 30.9,
        "lean_key": "draw",
        "lean_label": "Draw"
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        "avg_total": 1.69,
        "away_avg_scored": 0.8,
        "confidence": "high",
        "home_avg_scored": 0.7,
        "over_prob": 24.0,
        "pick": "Under 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 76.0,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 1.69,
        "under_prob": 76.0
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": 22.2,
        "implied_prob": 25.8,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Away",
        "market": "Richards Bay Win",
        "model_prob": 31.5,
        "odds": 3.88
      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": {
        "best_bookmaker": "BetVictor",
        "best_odds": 7.0,
        "edge": 4.2,
        "ev": 29.2,
        "label": "0-0",
        "probability": 18.5
      },
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "0-0",
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    "home_xg": 0.84,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
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        "decision": "value_bet",
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        "ev_under": 0.1476,
        "featured": true,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
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        "ev_yes": -0.2305,
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        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.3,
        "max_ev": 0.0232,
        "model_prob": 0.3759,
        "side_label": "draw",
        "sort_key": 5218.56,
        "tier": "lean"
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        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 835.5,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "0-0",
        "top_prob": 18.5
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    ],
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 10567,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/10567.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Richards Bay",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/za.svg",
      "country_name": "South-Africa",
      "fixture_id": 1429691,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 2682,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2682.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Marumo Gallants",
      "league_country": "South-Africa",
      "league_id": 288,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/288.webp",
      "league_name": "Premier Soccer League",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-09 13:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
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          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
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          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
          "pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
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          "Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
          "Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
        ],
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      },
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              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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          "home": {
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            "best_odd": 2.09,
            "calibration": {
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              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "implied_prob": 0.455,
            "model_prob": 0.3096,
            "p_final": 0.4038
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          "best_yes_odd": 2.25,
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          "edge_yes": -0.0918,
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          "implied_yes": 0.4338,
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          "reliability": "medium"
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          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
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        "scoring_type": "defensive",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.342,
          "draw_prob": 0.3759,
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          "xg_diff": 0.01
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          "market": "1x2",
          "model_prob": 0.3145,
          "not_dominant": true,
          "risk_band": "speculative",
          "risk_tier": "longshot",
          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "Richards Bay",
          "slot": "longshot"
        }
      ],
      "markets": {
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          "side": "draw",
          "side_label": "draw"
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          "decision": "value_bet",
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          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
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        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
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        "max_valid_ev": 0.1476,
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        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
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      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.3145,
        "draw": 0.3759,
        "home": 0.3096
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "model_summary",
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      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Richards Bay",
        "home": "Marumo Gallants"
      },
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        "side": "under",
        "slot": "primary",
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  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-09T13:00:21.019167+00:00",
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