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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Más / Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Bourg-en-bresse 01 Bourg-en-bresse 01 ✔ Correct
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1 1-0 ✖ Incorrect
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "dea22de4fd5a506a6835926fe70db461d503e19f9aba4397f0f58765bb87a463",
"decision_algo_version": "2.0.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.25,
"away_win_prob": null,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": null,
"fair_odds_away": null,
"fair_odds_draw": null,
"fair_odds_home": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.45,
"home_win_prob": null,
"prediction_confidence": "none"
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Bourg-en-bresse 01 or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Bourg-en-bresse 01"
},
"away_xg": 1.25,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Bourg-en-bresse 01",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0045,
"edge_gap": 0.0,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4545,
"model_prob": 0.45,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 10.0,
"draw": 45.0,
"home": 45.0
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": null
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 7,
"away_failed_to_score": 8,
"away_played": 29,
"away_score_rate": 72.4,
"home_clean_sheet": 6,
"home_failed_to_score": 13,
"home_played": 31,
"home_score_rate": 58.1,
"no_prob": 58.0,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 58.0,
"source": "stats",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 42.0
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.25,
"home_expected": 1.05,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
}
],
"source": "avg"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Bourg-en-bresse 01 or Draw",
"prob": 90.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Bourg-en-bresse 01 or Valenciennes",
"prob": 55.0
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Valenciennes",
"prob": 55.0
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Bourg-en-bresse 01 or Draw",
"pick_prob": 90.0
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 10.0,
"draw_pct": 45.0,
"home_pct": 45.0,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Bourg-en-bresse 01"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.3,
"away_avg_scored": 1.1,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 0.8,
"over_prob": 40.4,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 59.6,
"source": "avg",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.3,
"under_prob": 59.6
},
"prob_source": null,
"value_bet_enhanced": null
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.2
}
},
"home_xg": 1.45,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1194,
"ev_yes": -0.2314,
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1194,
"no_prob": 58.0,
"sort_key": 10257.46,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 42.0
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1516,
"ev_under": 0.043,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.043,
"over_prob": 40.4,
"sort_key": 10038.7,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 59.6,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev": -0.0679,
"ev_available": true,
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4545,
"max_ev": 0.0953,
"model_prob": 0.45,
"side_label": "Bourg-en-bresse 01",
"sort_key": 5276.24,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 819.6,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 13.2
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 105,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/105.webp",
"away_team_name": "Valenciennes",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/fr.svg",
"country_name": "France",
"fixture_id": 1423090,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 430,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/430.webp",
"home_team_name": "Bourg-en-bresse 01",
"league_country": "France",
"league_id": 63,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/63.webp",
"league_name": "National 1",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-08 17:30:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2113,
"best_odd": 3.15,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0417,
"ev": -0.195,
"implied_prob": 0.2972,
"model_prob": 0.1,
"p_final": 0.2555
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2092,
"best_odd": 3.77,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0422,
"ev": 0.0953,
"implied_prob": 0.2483,
"model_prob": 0.45,
"p_final": 0.2905
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.447,
"best_odd": 2.06,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.002,
"ev": -0.0679,
"implied_prob": 0.4545,
"model_prob": 0.45,
"p_final": 0.4525
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.93,
"best_yes_odd": 1.83,
"edge_no": 0.0923,
"edge_yes": -0.0923,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1194,
"ev_yes": -0.2314,
"implied_no": 0.4877,
"implied_yes": 0.5123,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 2.1,
"best_under_odd": 1.75,
"edge_over": -0.0576,
"edge_under": 0.0576,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1516,
"ev_under": 0.043,
"implied_over": 0.4616,
"implied_under": 0.5384,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.0.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1194,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.42,
"draw_prob": 0.45,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.45,
"over_prob": 0.404,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"under_prob": 0.596,
"xg_diff": 0.2
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.002,
"ev": -0.0679,
"implied_prob": 0.4545,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.45,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Bourg-en-bresse 01"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0923,
"ev": 0.1194,
"implied_prob": 0.4877,
"model_prob": 0.58,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0576,
"ev": 0.043,
"implied_prob": 0.5384,
"model_prob": 0.596,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1423090,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1194,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.1,
"draw": 0.45,
"home": 0.45
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Valenciennes",
"home": "Bourg-en-bresse 01"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.069252,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1194,
"implied_prob": 0.4877,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.58,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3
}
},
"fixture_id": 1423090,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-08T17:29:09.056431+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
- Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
- No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
- Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.
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National 1 — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dijon | 32 | 18 | 11 | 3 | 65 |
| 2 | Sochaux | 32 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 58 |
| 3 | Rouen | 32 | 14 | 13 | 5 | 55 |
| 4 | Fleury 91 | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 54 |
| 5 | Versailles | 32 | 15 | 8 | 9 | 53 |
| 6 | Orleans | 32 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 51 |
| 7 | Le Puy Foot | 32 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 47 |
| 8 | Caen | 32 | 8 | 16 | 8 | 40 |
| 9 | Concarneau | 32 | 8 | 14 | 10 | 38 |
| 10 | Valenciennes | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 37 |
| 11 | Aubagne | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 37 |
| 12 | Villefranche | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 37 |
| 13 | Quevilly | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 33 |
| 14 | Gobelins | 32 | 7 | 11 | 14 | 32 |
| 15 | Bourg-en-bresse 01 | 32 | 8 | 7 | 17 | 31 |
| 16 | Chateauroux | 32 | 6 | 13 | 13 | 30 |
| 17 | Stade Briochin | 32 | 5 | 12 | 15 | 27 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dijon | 32 | 52 | 25 | +27 | 65 |
| 2 | Sochaux | 32 | 51 | 26 | +25 | 58 |
| 3 | Fleury 91 | 32 | 47 | 30 | +17 | 54 |
| 4 | Versailles | 32 | 46 | 34 | +12 | 53 |
| 5 | Le Puy Foot | 32 | 45 | 38 | +7 | 47 |
| 6 | Rouen | 32 | 43 | 29 | +14 | 55 |
| 7 | Orleans | 32 | 42 | 42 | 0 | 51 |
| 8 | Caen | 32 | 39 | 34 | +5 | 40 |
| 9 | Aubagne | 32 | 38 | 46 | -8 | 37 |
| 10 | Valenciennes | 32 | 35 | 44 | -9 | 37 |
| 11 | Chateauroux | 32 | 35 | 49 | -14 | 30 |
| 12 | Stade Briochin | 32 | 35 | 50 | -15 | 27 |
| 13 | Villefranche | 32 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 37 |
| 14 | Quevilly | 32 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 33 |
| 15 | Concarneau | 32 | 32 | 37 | -5 | 38 |
| 16 | Gobelins | 32 | 26 | 41 | -15 | 32 |
| 17 | Bourg-en-bresse 01 | 32 | 25 | 44 | -19 | 31 |
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