Estadísticas / Fútbol / Hungary. NB III - Northwest / Pápai Perutz vs Budaörs

Pápai Perutz vs Budaörs Statistics & Analysis

May 10, 2026 - 15:00
0 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 55%
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Más / Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Pápai Perutz Budaörs ✖ Incorrect
  • Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.

View technical JSON
{
  "bundle_version": 1,
  "content_hash": "0857887481f22634ef7f1fb135264106d46cf411ecb93554d46eead01007140e",
  "decision_algo_version": "2.0.0",
  "facts": {
    "ai_fp": {
      "away_predicted_xg": 1.25,
      "away_win_prob": null,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": null,
      "fair_odds_away": null,
      "fair_odds_draw": null,
      "fair_odds_home": null,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.45,
      "home_win_prob": null,
      "prediction_confidence": "none"
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Buda\u00f6rs and +1.5 goals",
      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "45%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "10%",
      "winner_name": "Buda\u00f6rs"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.25,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "P\u00e1pai Perutz",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
        "edge": 0.2178,
        "edge_gap": 0.092,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.1998,
        "model_prob": 0.4177,
        "pick_type": "no_strong",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 32.6,
          "draw": 25.7,
          "home": 41.8
        },
        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [],
      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": null
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 5,
        "away_failed_to_score": 8,
        "away_played": 27,
        "away_score_rate": 70.4,
        "home_clean_sheet": 2,
        "home_failed_to_score": 7,
        "home_played": 27,
        "home_score_rate": 74.1,
        "no_prob": 47.9,
        "pick": "No",
        "pick_prob": 52.1,
        "source": "stats",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 52.1
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 2.3,
        "home_expected": 1.75,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-2",
            "prob": 8.1
          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-2",
            "prob": 7.1
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 7.0
          },
          {
            "away": 3,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-3",
            "prob": 6.2
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 6.1
          }
        ],
        "source": "avg"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "P\u00e1pai Perutz or Draw",
            "prob": 55.0
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "P\u00e1pai Perutz or Buda\u00f6rs",
            "prob": 55.0
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Buda\u00f6rs",
            "prob": 90.0
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "X2",
        "pick_label": "Draw or Buda\u00f6rs",
        "pick_prob": 90.0
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 45.0,
        "draw_pct": 45.0,
        "home_pct": 10.0,
        "lean_key": "draw",
        "lean_label": "Draw"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": "+1.5",
        "avg_total": 4.05,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.7,
        "confidence": "high",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.6,
        "over_prob": 76.9,
        "pick": "Over 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 76.9,
        "source": "avg",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 4.05,
        "under_prob": 23.1
      },
      "prob_source": null,
      "value_bet_enhanced": null
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-2",
        "prob": 8.1
      }
    },
    "home_xg": 1.45,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": 0.4609,
        "ev_yes": -0.3175,
        "featured": true,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": 0.4609,
        "no_prob": 47.9,
        "sort_key": 10564.81,
        "tier": "best",
        "value_side": "no",
        "yes_prob": 52.1
      },
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": 0.0458,
        "ev_under": -0.307,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": 0.0458,
        "over_prob": 76.9,
        "sort_key": 10041.22,
        "tier": "best",
        "under_prob": 23.1,
        "value_side": "over"
      },
      {
        "decision": "small_edge",
        "ev": 0.0175,
        "ev_available": true,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.1998,
        "max_ev": 0.0175,
        "model_prob": 0.4177,
        "side_label": "P\u00e1pai Perutz",
        "sort_key": 5214.0,
        "tier": "lean"
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 804.3,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "1-2",
        "top_prob": 8.1
      }
    ],
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 10162,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/10162.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Buda\u00f6rs",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/hu.svg",
      "country_name": "Hungary",
      "fixture_id": 1414958,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 5129,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/5129.webp",
      "home_team_name": "P\u00e1pai Perutz",
      "league_country": "Hungary",
      "league_id": 635,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/635.webp",
      "league_name": "NB III - Northwest",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-10 15:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
          "pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
          "Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.3746,
            "best_odd": 1.54,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0938,
            "ev": -0.2573,
            "implied_prob": 0.5761,
            "model_prob": 0.3257,
            "p_final": 0.4823
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2853,
            "best_odd": 3.96,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0093,
            "ev": -0.0759,
            "implied_prob": 0.224,
            "model_prob": 0.2567,
            "p_final": 0.2334
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.1346,
            "best_odd": 4.44,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0293,
            "ev": 0.0175,
            "implied_prob": 0.1998,
            "model_prob": 0.4177,
            "p_final": 0.2292
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 3.05,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.31,
          "edge_no": 0.1758,
          "edge_yes": -0.1758,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": 0.4609,
          "ev_yes": -0.3175,
          "implied_no": 0.3032,
          "implied_yes": 0.6968,
          "n_bookmakers": 2,
          "reliability": "low"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 1.36,
          "best_under_odd": 3.0,
          "edge_over": 0.0854,
          "edge_under": -0.0854,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": 0.0458,
          "ev_under": -0.307,
          "implied_over": 0.6836,
          "implied_under": 0.3164,
          "n_bookmakers": 4,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.7,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.0.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.4609,
      "confidence": 6.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
        "scoring_type": "neutral",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.521,
          "draw_prob": 0.2567,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.4177,
          "over_prob": 0.769,
          "total_xg": 2.7,
          "under_prob": 0.231,
          "xg_diff": 0.2
        },
        "type": "neutral",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "small_edge",
          "edge": 0.0293,
          "ev": 0.0175,
          "implied_prob": 0.1998,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.4177,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "P\u00e1pai Perutz"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1758,
          "ev": 0.4609,
          "implied_prob": 0.3032,
          "model_prob": 0.479,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0854,
          "ev": 0.0458,
          "implied_prob": 0.6836,
          "model_prob": 0.769,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1414958,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.4609,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.3257,
        "draw": 0.2567,
        "home": 0.4177
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "high_total_goals"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Buda\u00f6rs",
        "home": "P\u00e1pai Perutz"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.194279,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.4609,
        "implied_prob": 0.3032,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.479,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "no",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1414958,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-10T14:59:44.034675+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
  • Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
  • No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
  • Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.

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Volver a Estadísticas
NB III - Northwest NB III - NorthwestClasificación
# EQUIPO PJ G E P Pts
1 Gyirmot SE 28 25 1 2 76
2 Tatabánya 28 18 2 8 56
3 Dorogi FC 28 17 4 7 55
4 Puskás II 28 16 3 9 51
5 Komárom 28 14 6 8 48
6 Haladás VSE 28 14 5 9 47
7 MTE 1904 28 13 5 10 44
8 Veszprém 28 11 8 9 41
9 Bicskei 28 10 6 12 36
10 Budaörs 28 10 5 13 35
11 Gyori ETO II 28 9 4 15 31
12 Újpest II 28 8 7 13 31
13 SC Sopron 28 8 7 13 31
14 Pápai Perutz 28 6 3 19 21
15 Balatonfüredi 28 4 6 18 18
16 Zsámbéki SK 28 3 4 21 13
# EQUIPO PJ GF GC +/- Pts
1 Gyirmot SE 28 101 20 +81 76
2 Tatabánya 28 60 37 +23 56
3 Komárom 28 56 41 +15 48
4 Puskás II 28 55 33 +22 51
5 Bicskei 28 49 47 +2 36
6 Budaörs 28 47 50 -3 35
7 Dorogi FC 28 45 32 +13 55
8 Gyori ETO II 28 43 58 -15 31
9 MTE 1904 28 42 31 +11 44
10 Újpest II 28 42 48 -6 31
11 Pápai Perutz 28 42 79 -37 21
12 Haladás VSE 28 41 31 +10 47
13 SC Sopron 28 39 54 -15 31
14 Zsámbéki SK 28 34 100 -66 13
15 Veszprém 28 33 31 +2 41
16 Balatonfüredi 28 20 57 -37 18