Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow Statistics & Analysis

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  "decision_algo_version": "2.0.0",
  "facts": {
    "ai_fp": {
      "away_predicted_xg": 1.13,
      "away_win_prob": 0.2999,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.3043,
      "fair_odds_away": 3.33,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.29,
      "fair_odds_home": 2.53,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.33,
      "home_win_prob": 0.3958,
      "prediction_confidence": "high"
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : draw or CSKA Moscow",
      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "45%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "10%",
      "winner_name": "CSKA Moscow"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.13,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Nizhny Novgorod",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
        "edge": 0.1134,
        "edge_gap": 0.0914,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.2821,
        "model_prob": 0.3955,
        "pick_type": "no_strong",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 30.0,
          "draw": 30.4,
          "home": 39.5
        },
        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 3.43
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 3.43,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Nizhny Novgorod Win",
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 3.55,
        "market_odds": 3.43,
        "model_odds": 2.53,
        "overround": 3.4,
        "prob_edge": 10.4,
        "value_pct": 35.6,
        "value_rating": "strong_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 7,
        "away_failed_to_score": 8,
        "away_played": 28,
        "away_score_rate": 67.7,
        "home_clean_sheet": 5,
        "home_failed_to_score": 14,
        "home_played": 28,
        "home_score_rate": 73.6,
        "no_prob": 48.5,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 51.5,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "yes_prob": 51.5
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.13,
        "home_expected": 1.33,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 12.8
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 11.4
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-1",
            "prob": 9.7
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-0",
            "prob": 8.5
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 8.5
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Nizhny Novgorod or Draw",
            "prob": 70.0
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Nizhny Novgorod or CSKA Moscow",
            "prob": 69.6
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or CSKA Moscow",
            "prob": 60.4
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "1X",
        "pick_label": "Nizhny Novgorod or Draw",
        "pick_prob": 70.0
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 30.0,
        "draw_pct": 30.4,
        "home_pct": 39.6,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "Nizhny Novgorod"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 2.46,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.4,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "home_avg_scored": 0.8,
        "over_prob": 44.6,
        "pick": "Under 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 55.4,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 2.46,
        "under_prob": 55.4
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": 35.8,
        "implied_prob": 29.2,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Home",
        "market": "Nizhny Novgorod Win",
        "model_prob": 39.6,
        "odds": 3.43
      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
        "prob": 12.8
      }
    },
    "home_xg": 1.33,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": -0.1169,
        "ev_under": 0.0858,
        "featured": true,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": 0.0858,
        "over_prob": 44.6,
        "sort_key": 10227.22,
        "tier": "best",
        "under_prob": 55.4,
        "value_side": "under"
      },
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.0644,
        "ev_available": true,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.2821,
        "max_ev": 0.0644,
        "model_prob": 0.3955,
        "side_label": "Nizhny Novgorod",
        "sort_key": 10057.96,
        "tier": "best"
      },
      {
        "decision": "lean",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": -0.0106,
        "ev_yes": -0.1193,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": -0.0106,
        "no_prob": 48.5,
        "sort_key": 1797.35,
        "tier": "bad_ev",
        "value_side": "no",
        "yes_prob": 51.5
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 818.4,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "1-1",
        "top_prob": 12.8
      }
    ],
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 555,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/555.webp",
      "away_team_name": "CSKA Moscow",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/ru.svg",
      "country_name": "Russia",
      "fixture_id": 1400259,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 2011,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2011.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Nizhny Novgorod",
      "league_country": "Russia",
      "league_id": 235,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/235.webp",
      "league_name": "Premier League",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-11 12:15:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
          "pred_conf_md_xg_borderline",
          "pred_conf_md_draw_above_30",
          "pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
          "Total xG in borderline band (high variance) (\u22121.5)",
          "Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
          "Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
        ],
        "score": 4.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.3586,
            "best_odd": 2.22,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0486,
            "ev": -0.1402,
            "implied_prob": 0.4358,
            "model_prob": 0.3004,
            "p_final": 0.3873
          },
          "draw": {
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            "best_odd": 3.43,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0064,
            "ev": -0.0105,
            "implied_prob": 0.2821,
            "model_prob": 0.3041,
            "p_final": 0.2885
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.249,
            "best_odd": 3.43,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0282,
            "ev": 0.0644,
            "implied_prob": 0.2821,
            "model_prob": 0.3955,
            "p_final": 0.3103
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        },
        "btts": {
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          "best_yes_odd": 1.71,
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          "edge_yes": -0.0278,
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          "implied_yes": 0.5428,
          "n_bookmakers": 2,
          "reliability": "low"
        },
        "ou25": {
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          "best_under_odd": 1.96,
          "edge_over": -0.0521,
          "edge_under": 0.0521,
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          "ev_over": -0.1169,
          "ev_under": 0.0858,
          "implied_over": 0.4981,
          "implied_under": 0.5019,
          "n_bookmakers": 4,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.46,
      "variance_flag": true
    },
    "unified_decision": {
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      "algorithm": {
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      "best_tracked_ev": 0.0858,
      "confidence": 5.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
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        "breakdown_resolved": [
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          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 5.0
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
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      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.515,
          "draw_prob": 0.3041,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.3955,
          "over_prob": 0.446,
          "total_xg": 2.46,
          "under_prob": 0.554,
          "xg_diff": 0.2
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0282,
          "ev": 0.0644,
          "implied_prob": 0.2821,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.3955,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Nizhny Novgorod"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "lean",
          "edge": 0.0278,
          "ev": -0.0106,
          "implied_prob": 0.4572,
          "model_prob": 0.485,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0521,
          "ev": 0.0858,
          "implied_prob": 0.5019,
          "model_prob": 0.554,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1400259,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.0858,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.3004,
        "draw": 0.3041,
        "home": 0.3955
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "variance_medium"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "CSKA Moscow",
        "home": "Nizhny Novgorod"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.02928,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.0858,
        "implied_prob": 0.5019,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.554,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1400259,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-11T12:14:04.141385+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}