Estadísticas / Fútbol / Ukraine. Premier League / Shakhtar Donetsk vs Obolon'-Brovar

Shakhtar Donetsk vs Obolon'-Brovar Statistics & Analysis

May 13, 2026 - 15:00
3 2.37
1 0.74
xG Accuracy: 78%
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Más / Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk ✔ Correct
  • Perspectivas de marcador exacto 2-0 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.

View technical JSON
{
  "bundle_version": 1,
  "content_hash": "bbc5b93259f38d4722cfa4989401d2551ab1120ef0bb93402ca815a1cce6c52b",
  "decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
  "facts": {
    "ai_fp": {
      "away_predicted_xg": 0.74,
      "away_win_prob": 0.0882,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.1849,
      "fair_odds_away": 11.34,
      "fair_odds_draw": 5.41,
      "fair_odds_home": 1.38,
      "home_predicted_xg": 2.37,
      "home_win_prob": 0.7269,
      "prediction_confidence": "high"
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Winner : Shakhtar Donetsk",
      "main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
      "percent_away": "0%",
      "percent_draw": "50%",
      "percent_home": "50%",
      "winner_name": "Shakhtar Donetsk"
    },
    "away_xg": 0.74,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Shakhtar Donetsk",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
        "edge": -0.0615,
        "edge_gap": 0.5411,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.7879,
        "model_prob": 0.7263,
        "pick_type": "no_value",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 8.8,
          "draw": 18.5,
          "home": 72.6
        },
        "reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 1.18
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 1.18,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Shakhtar Donetsk Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 1.27,
        "market_odds": 1.18,
        "model_odds": 1.38,
        "overround": 7.6,
        "prob_edge": -12.3,
        "value_pct": -14.5,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 6,
        "away_failed_to_score": 11,
        "away_played": 26,
        "away_score_rate": 52.3,
        "home_clean_sheet": 17,
        "home_failed_to_score": 2,
        "home_played": 27,
        "home_score_rate": 90.7,
        "no_prob": 51.6,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 51.6,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 48.4
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 0.74,
        "home_expected": 2.37,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-0",
            "prob": 12.5
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 10.6
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 3,
            "label": "3-0",
            "prob": 9.9
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 9.3
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 7.8
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Shakhtar Donetsk or Draw",
            "prob": 91.2
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Shakhtar Donetsk or Obolon\u0027-Brovar",
            "prob": 81.5
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Obolon\u0027-Brovar",
            "prob": 27.3
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "1X",
        "pick_label": "Shakhtar Donetsk or Draw",
        "pick_prob": 91.2
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 8.8,
        "draw_pct": 18.5,
        "home_pct": 72.7,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "Shakhtar Donetsk"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 3.11,
        "away_avg_scored": 0.8,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "home_avg_scored": 2.4,
        "over_prob": 60.1,
        "pick": "Over 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 60.1,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "total_expected": 3.11,
        "under_prob": 39.9
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": 23.0,
        "implied_prob": 15.0,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Draw",
        "market": "Draw",
        "model_prob": 18.5,
        "odds": 6.65
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Obolon\u0027-Brovar",
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE5",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "Shakhtar Donetsk",
      "largest_move_kind": null,
      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
      "model_vs_closing": [
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 78.79,
          "gap_pp": -6.15,
          "kind": "1x2_h",
          "model_pct": 72.63
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 13.98,
          "gap_pp": 4.55,
          "kind": "1x2_d",
          "model_pct": 18.53
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 7.23,
          "gap_pp": 1.6,
          "kind": "1x2_a",
          "model_pct": 8.84
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 60.77,
          "gap_pp": -0.67,
          "kind": "ou_o",
          "model_pct": 60.1
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 39.23,
          "gap_pp": 0.67,
          "kind": "ou_u",
          "model_pct": 39.9
        }
      ],
      "movement": [
        {
          "closing": 1.18,
          "early": 1.18,
          "implied_closing_pct": 78.79,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 78.79,
          "kind": "1x2_h"
        },
        {
          "closing": 6.65,
          "early": 6.65,
          "implied_closing_pct": 13.98,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 13.98,
          "kind": "1x2_d"
        },
        {
          "closing": 12.85,
          "early": 12.85,
          "implied_closing_pct": 7.23,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 7.23,
          "kind": "1x2_a"
        },
        {
          "closing": 1.53,
          "early": 1.53,
          "implied_closing_pct": 60.77,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 60.77,
          "kind": "ou_o"
        },
        {
          "closing": 2.37,
          "early": 2.37,
          "implied_closing_pct": 39.23,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 39.23,
          "kind": "ou_u"
        }
      ],
      "movement_negligible": true,
      "same_bookmaker": true,
      "top_value_gap": {
        "gap_pp": 4.5,
        "kind": "1x2_d"
      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "2-0",
        "prob": 12.5
      }
    },
    "home_xg": 2.37,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": -0.1486,
        "ev_yes": 0.1616,
        "featured": true,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": 0.1616,
        "no_prob": 51.6,
        "sort_key": 10295.44,
        "tier": "best",
        "value_side": "yes",
        "yes_prob": 48.4
      },
      {
        "decision": "no_bet",
        "ev": -0.1099,
        "ev_available": true,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.7879,
        "max_ev": -0.014,
        "model_prob": 0.7263,
        "side_label": "Shakhtar Donetsk",
        "sort_key": 1796.5,
        "tier": "bad_ev"
      },
      {
        "decision": "lean",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": -0.0384,
        "ev_under": -0.0424,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": -0.0384,
        "over_prob": 60.1,
        "sort_key": 1790.4,
        "tier": "bad_ev",
        "under_prob": 39.9,
        "value_side": "over"
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 817.5,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "2-0",
        "top_prob": 12.5
      }
    ],
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 3630,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3630.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Obolon\u0027-Brovar",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/ua.svg",
      "country_name": "Ukraine",
      "fixture_id": 1396812,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 550,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/550.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Shakhtar Donetsk",
      "league_country": "Ukraine",
      "league_id": 333,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/333.webp",
      "league_name": "Premier League",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-16 15:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 9.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.1952,
            "best_odd": 12.85,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0031,
            "ev": -0.0301,
            "implied_prob": 0.0723,
            "model_prob": 0.0884,
            "p_final": 0.0755
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.1864,
            "best_odd": 6.65,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0085,
            "ev": -0.014,
            "implied_prob": 0.1398,
            "model_prob": 0.1853,
            "p_final": 0.1483
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.5446,
            "best_odd": 1.18,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0335,
            "ev": -0.1099,
            "implied_prob": 0.7879,
            "model_prob": 0.7263,
            "p_final": 0.7543
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 1.65,
          "best_yes_odd": 2.4,
          "edge_no": -0.0794,
          "edge_yes": 0.0794,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.1486,
          "ev_yes": 0.1616,
          "implied_no": 0.5954,
          "implied_yes": 0.4046,
          "n_bookmakers": 9,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 1.6,
          "best_under_odd": 2.4,
          "edge_over": 0.0001,
          "edge_under": -0.0001,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": -0.0384,
          "ev_under": -0.0424,
          "implied_over": 0.6009,
          "implied_under": 0.3991,
          "n_bookmakers": 9,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 3.11,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.1.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.1616,
      "confidence": 7.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)"
        ],
        "score": 7.0
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": true,
        "1x2_open_contest": false,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "strong_signal",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.484,
          "draw_prob": 0.1853,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.7263,
          "over_prob": 0.601,
          "total_xg": 3.11,
          "under_prob": 0.399,
          "xg_diff": 1.63
        },
        "type": "strong_signal",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": -0.0335,
          "ev": -0.1099,
          "implied_prob": 0.7879,
          "max_ev_side": "draw",
          "model_prob": 0.7263,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Shakhtar Donetsk"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0794,
          "ev": 0.1616,
          "implied_prob": 0.4046,
          "model_prob": 0.484,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "lean",
          "edge": 0.0001,
          "ev": -0.0384,
          "implied_prob": 0.6009,
          "model_prob": 0.601,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1396812,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.1616,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.0884,
        "draw": 0.1853,
        "home": 0.7263
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2",
        "high_total_goals"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Obolon\u0027-Brovar",
        "home": "Shakhtar Donetsk"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.078214,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1616,
        "implied_prob": 0.4046,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.484,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "yes",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 1
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1396812,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-16T14:57:44.457369+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
  • Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
  • No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
  • Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.

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Volver a Estadísticas
Premier League Premier LeagueClasificación
# EQUIPO PJ G E P PTS
1 Shakhtar Donetsk 28 21 6 1 69
2 LNZ Cherkasy 28 17 6 5 57
3 Polessya 28 17 4 7 55
4 Dynamo Kyiv 29 16 6 7 54
5 Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 29 12 12 5 48
6 Kryvbas KR 28 13 8 7 47
7 Kolos Kovalivka 28 12 10 6 46
8 Zorya Luhansk 28 11 9 8 42
9 Karpaty 28 9 11 8 38
10 Veres Rivne 28 7 10 11 31
11 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 29 8 7 14 31
12 Obolon'-Brovar 28 6 10 12 28
13 Kudrivka 28 6 7 15 25
14 Ruh Lviv 28 6 3 19 21
15 Oleksandria 28 2 7 19 13
16 SK Poltava 29 2 6 21 12
# EQUIPO PJ GS GC +/- PTS
1 Shakhtar Donetsk 28 68 18 +50 69
2 Dynamo Kyiv 29 63 34 +29 54
3 Kryvbas KR 28 50 42 +8 47
4 Polessya 28 49 21 +28 55
5 Zorya Luhansk 28 40 35 +5 42
6 LNZ Cherkasy 28 38 16 +22 57
7 Karpaty 28 37 29 +8 38
8 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 29 36 45 -9 31
9 Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 29 35 19 +16 48
10 Kolos Kovalivka 28 29 23 +6 46
11 Kudrivka 28 29 45 -16 25
12 Veres Rivne 28 26 37 -11 31
13 Obolon'-Brovar 28 26 48 -22 28
14 SK Poltava 29 23 74 -51 12
15 Oleksandria 28 20 56 -36 13
16 Ruh Lviv 28 19 46 -27 21
# EQUIPO PJ xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Dynamo Kyiv 29 30.7 10.1 +20.6 54
2 Shakhtar Donetsk 28 29.8 9.8 +20.0 69
3 Polessya 28 35.3 17.0 +18.3 55
4 LNZ Cherkasy 28 27.3 12.2 +15.1 57
5 Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 29 22.0 12.7 +9.3 48
6 Karpaty 28 24.4 20.0 +4.4 38
7 Kolos Kovalivka 28 22.6 22.2 +0.4 46
8 Zorya Luhansk 28 21.1 21.2 -0.1 42
9 Veres Rivne 28 12.6 16.5 -3.9 31
10 Ruh Lviv 28 16.1 21.5 -5.4 21
11 Obolon'-Brovar 28 17.2 23.2 -6.0 28
12 Kryvbas KR 28 21.4 27.8 -6.4 47
13 Kudrivka 28 14.9 27.4 -12.5 25
14 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 29 18.9 32.2 -13.3 31
15 Oleksandria 28 10.5 25.0 -14.5 13
16 SK Poltava 29 10.1 36.0 -25.9 12