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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Más / Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk ✔ Correct
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 2-0 3-1 ✖ Incorrect
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "bbc5b93259f38d4722cfa4989401d2551ab1120ef0bb93402ca815a1cce6c52b",
"decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 0.74,
"away_win_prob": 0.0882,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.1849,
"fair_odds_away": 11.34,
"fair_odds_draw": 5.41,
"fair_odds_home": 1.38,
"home_predicted_xg": 2.37,
"home_win_prob": 0.7269,
"prediction_confidence": "high"
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Winner : Shakhtar Donetsk",
"main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"percent_away": "0%",
"percent_draw": "50%",
"percent_home": "50%",
"winner_name": "Shakhtar Donetsk"
},
"away_xg": 0.74,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Shakhtar Donetsk",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"edge": -0.0615,
"edge_gap": 0.5411,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.7879,
"model_prob": 0.7263,
"pick_type": "no_value",
"probabilities": {
"away": 8.8,
"draw": 18.5,
"home": 72.6
},
"reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.18
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.18,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Shakhtar Donetsk Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 1.27,
"market_odds": 1.18,
"model_odds": 1.38,
"overround": 7.6,
"prob_edge": -12.3,
"value_pct": -14.5,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 6,
"away_failed_to_score": 11,
"away_played": 26,
"away_score_rate": 52.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 17,
"home_failed_to_score": 2,
"home_played": 27,
"home_score_rate": 90.7,
"no_prob": 51.6,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 51.6,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 48.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 0.74,
"home_expected": 2.37,
"scores": [
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.6
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 3,
"label": "3-0",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 7.8
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Shakhtar Donetsk or Draw",
"prob": 91.2
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Shakhtar Donetsk or Obolon\u0027-Brovar",
"prob": 81.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Obolon\u0027-Brovar",
"prob": 27.3
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Shakhtar Donetsk or Draw",
"pick_prob": 91.2
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 8.8,
"draw_pct": 18.5,
"home_pct": 72.7,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Shakhtar Donetsk"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.11,
"away_avg_scored": 0.8,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 2.4,
"over_prob": 60.1,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 60.1,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 3.11,
"under_prob": 39.9
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 23.0,
"implied_prob": 15.0,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 18.5,
"odds": 6.65
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Obolon\u0027-Brovar",
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Shakhtar Donetsk",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 78.79,
"gap_pp": -6.15,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 72.63
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 13.98,
"gap_pp": 4.55,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 18.53
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 7.23,
"gap_pp": 1.6,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 8.84
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 60.77,
"gap_pp": -0.67,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 60.1
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 39.23,
"gap_pp": 0.67,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 39.9
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.18,
"early": 1.18,
"implied_closing_pct": 78.79,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 78.79,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 6.65,
"early": 6.65,
"implied_closing_pct": 13.98,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 13.98,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 12.85,
"early": 12.85,
"implied_closing_pct": 7.23,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 7.23,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.53,
"early": 1.53,
"implied_closing_pct": 60.77,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 60.77,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.37,
"early": 2.37,
"implied_closing_pct": 39.23,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 39.23,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 4.5,
"kind": "1x2_d"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 12.5
}
},
"home_xg": 2.37,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1486,
"ev_yes": 0.1616,
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1616,
"no_prob": 51.6,
"sort_key": 10295.44,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 48.4
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev": -0.1099,
"ev_available": true,
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.7879,
"max_ev": -0.014,
"model_prob": 0.7263,
"side_label": "Shakhtar Donetsk",
"sort_key": 1796.5,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0384,
"ev_under": -0.0424,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": -0.0384,
"over_prob": 60.1,
"sort_key": 1790.4,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"under_prob": 39.9,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "2-0",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 3630,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3630.webp",
"away_team_name": "Obolon\u0027-Brovar",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ua.svg",
"country_name": "Ukraine",
"fixture_id": 1396812,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 550,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/550.webp",
"home_team_name": "Shakhtar Donetsk",
"league_country": "Ukraine",
"league_id": 333,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/333.webp",
"league_name": "Premier League",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-16 15:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 9.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1952,
"best_odd": 12.85,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0031,
"ev": -0.0301,
"implied_prob": 0.0723,
"model_prob": 0.0884,
"p_final": 0.0755
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1864,
"best_odd": 6.65,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0085,
"ev": -0.014,
"implied_prob": 0.1398,
"model_prob": 0.1853,
"p_final": 0.1483
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5446,
"best_odd": 1.18,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0335,
"ev": -0.1099,
"implied_prob": 0.7879,
"model_prob": 0.7263,
"p_final": 0.7543
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.65,
"best_yes_odd": 2.4,
"edge_no": -0.0794,
"edge_yes": 0.0794,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1486,
"ev_yes": 0.1616,
"implied_no": 0.5954,
"implied_yes": 0.4046,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.6,
"best_under_odd": 2.4,
"edge_over": 0.0001,
"edge_under": -0.0001,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0384,
"ev_under": -0.0424,
"implied_over": 0.6009,
"implied_under": 0.3991,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.11,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.1.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1616,
"confidence": 7.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)"
],
"score": 7.0
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.484,
"draw_prob": 0.1853,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.7263,
"over_prob": 0.601,
"total_xg": 3.11,
"under_prob": 0.399,
"xg_diff": 1.63
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0335,
"ev": -0.1099,
"implied_prob": 0.7879,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.7263,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Shakhtar Donetsk"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0794,
"ev": 0.1616,
"implied_prob": 0.4046,
"model_prob": 0.484,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": 0.0001,
"ev": -0.0384,
"implied_prob": 0.6009,
"model_prob": 0.601,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1396812,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1616,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.0884,
"draw": 0.1853,
"home": 0.7263
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Obolon\u0027-Brovar",
"home": "Shakhtar Donetsk"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.078214,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1616,
"implied_prob": 0.4046,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.484,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1
}
},
"fixture_id": 1396812,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-16T14:57:44.457369+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
- Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
- No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
- Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.
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Premier League — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 28 | 21 | 6 | 1 | 69 |
| 2 | LNZ Cherkasy | 28 | 17 | 6 | 5 | 57 |
| 3 | Polessya | 28 | 17 | 4 | 7 | 55 |
| 4 | Dynamo Kyiv | 29 | 16 | 6 | 7 | 54 |
| 5 | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | 29 | 12 | 12 | 5 | 48 |
| 6 | Kryvbas KR | 28 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 47 |
| 7 | Kolos Kovalivka | 28 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 46 |
| 8 | Zorya Luhansk | 28 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 42 |
| 9 | Karpaty | 28 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 38 |
| 10 | Veres Rivne | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 31 |
| 11 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 29 | 8 | 7 | 14 | 31 |
| 12 | Obolon'-Brovar | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 28 |
| 13 | Kudrivka | 28 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 25 |
| 14 | Ruh Lviv | 28 | 6 | 3 | 19 | 21 |
| 15 | Oleksandria | 28 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 13 |
| 16 | SK Poltava | 29 | 2 | 6 | 21 | 12 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 28 | 68 | 18 | +50 | 69 |
| 2 | Dynamo Kyiv | 29 | 63 | 34 | +29 | 54 |
| 3 | Kryvbas KR | 28 | 50 | 42 | +8 | 47 |
| 4 | Polessya | 28 | 49 | 21 | +28 | 55 |
| 5 | Zorya Luhansk | 28 | 40 | 35 | +5 | 42 |
| 6 | LNZ Cherkasy | 28 | 38 | 16 | +22 | 57 |
| 7 | Karpaty | 28 | 37 | 29 | +8 | 38 |
| 8 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 29 | 36 | 45 | -9 | 31 |
| 9 | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | 29 | 35 | 19 | +16 | 48 |
| 10 | Kolos Kovalivka | 28 | 29 | 23 | +6 | 46 |
| 11 | Kudrivka | 28 | 29 | 45 | -16 | 25 |
| 12 | Veres Rivne | 28 | 26 | 37 | -11 | 31 |
| 13 | Obolon'-Brovar | 28 | 26 | 48 | -22 | 28 |
| 14 | SK Poltava | 29 | 23 | 74 | -51 | 12 |
| 15 | Oleksandria | 28 | 20 | 56 | -36 | 13 |
| 16 | Ruh Lviv | 28 | 19 | 46 | -27 | 21 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dynamo Kyiv | 29 | 30.7 | 10.1 | +20.6 | 54 |
| 2 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 28 | 29.8 | 9.8 | +20.0 | 69 |
| 3 | Polessya | 28 | 35.3 | 17.0 | +18.3 | 55 |
| 4 | LNZ Cherkasy | 28 | 27.3 | 12.2 | +15.1 | 57 |
| 5 | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | 29 | 22.0 | 12.7 | +9.3 | 48 |
| 6 | Karpaty | 28 | 24.4 | 20.0 | +4.4 | 38 |
| 7 | Kolos Kovalivka | 28 | 22.6 | 22.2 | +0.4 | 46 |
| 8 | Zorya Luhansk | 28 | 21.1 | 21.2 | -0.1 | 42 |
| 9 | Veres Rivne | 28 | 12.6 | 16.5 | -3.9 | 31 |
| 10 | Ruh Lviv | 28 | 16.1 | 21.5 | -5.4 | 21 |
| 11 | Obolon'-Brovar | 28 | 17.2 | 23.2 | -6.0 | 28 |
| 12 | Kryvbas KR | 28 | 21.4 | 27.8 | -6.4 | 47 |
| 13 | Kudrivka | 28 | 14.9 | 27.4 | -12.5 | 25 |
| 14 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 29 | 18.9 | 32.2 | -13.3 | 31 |
| 15 | Oleksandria | 28 | 10.5 | 25.0 | -14.5 | 13 |
| 16 | SK Poltava | 29 | 10.1 | 36.0 | -25.9 | 12 |