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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Más / Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 GIL Vicente Arouca ✖ Incorrect
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-0 1-3 ✖ Incorrect
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "7edaccd95331168362348e6d97794f3b368ca3d4ec4bb0c6af174c1b304aaae1",
"decision_algo_version": "2.0.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 0.99,
"away_win_prob": 0.2275,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2876,
"fair_odds_away": 4.4,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.48,
"fair_odds_home": 2.06,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.54,
"home_win_prob": 0.4849,
"prediction_confidence": "high"
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : GIL Vicente or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"percent_away": "30%",
"percent_draw": "35%",
"percent_home": "35%",
"winner_name": "GIL Vicente"
},
"away_xg": 0.99,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "GIL Vicente",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"edge": -0.0702,
"edge_gap": 0.1981,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.5556,
"model_prob": 0.4854,
"pick_type": "no_value",
"probabilities": {
"away": 22.7,
"draw": 28.7,
"home": 48.5
},
"reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.7
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.7,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "GIL Vicente Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 1.8,
"market_odds": 1.7,
"model_odds": 2.06,
"overround": 5.9,
"prob_edge": -10.3,
"value_pct": -17.5,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 7,
"away_failed_to_score": 9,
"away_played": 32,
"away_score_rate": 62.8,
"home_clean_sheet": 12,
"home_failed_to_score": 8,
"home_played": 32,
"home_score_rate": 78.6,
"no_prob": 49.0,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 50.9,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 50.9
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 0.99,
"home_expected": 1.54,
"scores": [
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 12.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.1
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "GIL Vicente or Draw",
"prob": 77.3
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "GIL Vicente or Arouca",
"prob": 71.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Arouca",
"prob": 51.6
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "GIL Vicente or Draw",
"pick_prob": 77.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 22.8,
"draw_pct": 28.8,
"home_pct": 48.5,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "GIL Vicente"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.53,
"away_avg_scored": 1.3,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.4,
"over_prob": 46.4,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 53.6,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.53,
"under_prob": 53.6
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 11.7,
"implied_prob": 25.8,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 28.8,
"odds": 3.88
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 12.3
}
},
"home_xg": 1.54,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.123,
"ev_under": 0.0934,
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0934,
"over_prob": 46.4,
"sort_key": 10234.06,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 53.6,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev": -0.1195,
"ev_available": true,
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5556,
"max_ev": -0.0077,
"model_prob": 0.4854,
"side_label": "GIL Vicente",
"sort_key": 1798.075,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.02,
"ev_yes": -0.0685,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.02,
"no_prob": 49.0,
"sort_key": 1795.0,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 50.9
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 816.9,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-0",
"top_prob": 12.3
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 240,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/240.webp",
"away_team_name": "Arouca",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/pt.svg",
"country_name": "Portugal",
"fixture_id": 1396529,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 762,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/762.webp",
"home_team_name": "GIL Vicente",
"league_country": "Portugal",
"league_id": 94,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/94.webp",
"league_name": "Primeira Liga",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-10 16:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_xg_borderline"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Total xG in borderline band (high variance) (\u22121.5)"
],
"score": 5.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1921,
"best_odd": 4.7,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0051,
"ev": -0.0317,
"implied_prob": 0.201,
"model_prob": 0.2273,
"p_final": 0.206
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2802,
"best_odd": 3.88,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0123,
"ev": -0.0077,
"implied_prob": 0.2434,
"model_prob": 0.2873,
"p_final": 0.2557
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5368,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0377,
"ev": -0.1195,
"implied_prob": 0.5556,
"model_prob": 0.4854,
"p_final": 0.5179
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.0,
"best_yes_odd": 1.83,
"edge_no": 0.0144,
"edge_yes": -0.0154,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.02,
"ev_yes": -0.0685,
"implied_no": 0.4756,
"implied_yes": 0.5244,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.89,
"best_under_odd": 2.04,
"edge_over": -0.0545,
"edge_under": 0.0545,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.123,
"ev_under": 0.0934,
"implied_over": 0.5185,
"implied_under": 0.4815,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.53,
"variance_flag": true
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.0.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0934,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"score": 5.0
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.509,
"draw_prob": 0.2873,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4854,
"over_prob": 0.464,
"total_xg": 2.53,
"under_prob": 0.536,
"xg_diff": 0.55
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0377,
"ev": -0.1195,
"implied_prob": 0.5556,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.4854,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "GIL Vicente"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": 0.0144,
"ev": -0.02,
"implied_prob": 0.4756,
"model_prob": 0.49,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0545,
"ev": 0.0934,
"implied_prob": 0.4815,
"model_prob": 0.536,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1396529,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0934,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2273,
"draw": 0.2873,
"home": 0.4854
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"variance_medium"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Arouca",
"home": "GIL Vicente"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.030838,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0934,
"implied_prob": 0.4815,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.536,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1
}
},
"fixture_id": 1396529,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-10T15:59:34.655955+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
- Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
- No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
- Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.
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Primeira Liga — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 33 | 27 | 4 | 2 | 85 |
| 2 | Benfica | 32 | 22 | 10 | 0 | 76 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 32 | 23 | 7 | 2 | 76 |
| 4 | SC Braga | 32 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 57 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 52 |
| 6 | GIL Vicente | 32 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 50 |
| 7 | Moreirense | 32 | 12 | 6 | 14 | 42 |
| 8 | Guimaraes | 32 | 12 | 6 | 14 | 42 |
| 9 | Estoril | 33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 39 |
| 10 | Alverca | 33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 39 |
| 11 | Arouca | 32 | 10 | 6 | 16 | 36 |
| 12 | Rio Ave | 32 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 35 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 33 |
| 14 | Nacional | 32 | 8 | 7 | 17 | 31 |
| 15 | Estrela | 32 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 28 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 26 |
| 17 | Tondela | 32 | 5 | 10 | 17 | 25 |
| 18 | AVS | 33 | 3 | 11 | 19 | 20 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting CP | 32 | 82 | 23 | +59 | 76 |
| 2 | Benfica | 32 | 69 | 22 | +47 | 76 |
| 3 | FC Porto | 33 | 65 | 18 | +47 | 85 |
| 4 | SC Braga | 32 | 60 | 32 | +28 | 57 |
| 5 | Estoril | 33 | 53 | 54 | -1 | 39 |
| 6 | GIL Vicente | 32 | 46 | 32 | +14 | 50 |
| 7 | Famalicao | 32 | 41 | 29 | +12 | 52 |
| 8 | Arouca | 32 | 41 | 62 | -21 | 36 |
| 9 | Guimaraes | 32 | 39 | 48 | -9 | 42 |
| 10 | Moreirense | 32 | 37 | 47 | -10 | 42 |
| 11 | Estrela | 32 | 36 | 54 | -18 | 28 |
| 12 | Nacional | 32 | 35 | 43 | -8 | 31 |
| 13 | Alverca | 33 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 39 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 32 | 33 | 52 | -19 | 35 |
| 15 | Santa Clara | 32 | 30 | 40 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 32 | 29 | 56 | -27 | 26 |
| 17 | AVS | 33 | 27 | 67 | -40 | 20 |
| 18 | Tondela | 32 | 24 | 52 | -28 | 25 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting CP | 32 | 67.3 | 23.2 | +44.1 | 76 |
| 2 | FC Porto | 33 | 61.3 | 22.1 | +39.2 | 85 |
| 3 | Benfica | 32 | 64.2 | 25.7 | +38.5 | 76 |
| 4 | SC Braga | 32 | 54.9 | 36.8 | +18.1 | 57 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 32 | 45.0 | 33.2 | +11.8 | 52 |
| 6 | GIL Vicente | 32 | 44.2 | 35.1 | +9.1 | 50 |
| 7 | Santa Clara | 32 | 35.9 | 34.4 | +1.5 | 33 |
| 8 | Alverca | 33 | 39.1 | 38.6 | +0.5 | 39 |
| 9 | Guimaraes | 32 | 37.9 | 44.5 | -6.6 | 42 |
| 10 | Estoril | 33 | 41.2 | 51.0 | -9.8 | 39 |
| 11 | Estrela | 32 | 39.3 | 50.3 | -11.0 | 28 |
| 12 | Tondela | 32 | 36.1 | 47.1 | -11.0 | 25 |
| 13 | Nacional | 32 | 36.9 | 49.2 | -12.3 | 31 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 32 | 33.6 | 50.0 | -16.4 | 35 |
| 15 | Moreirense | 32 | 30.4 | 49.6 | -19.2 | 42 |
| 16 | Arouca | 32 | 29.2 | 48.9 | -19.7 | 36 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 32 | 29.3 | 54.1 | -24.8 | 26 |
| 18 | AVS | 33 | 29.9 | 61.7 | -31.8 | 20 |