Estadísticas / Fútbol / Portugal. Primeira Liga / GIL Vicente vs Arouca

GIL Vicente vs Arouca Statistics & Analysis

May 11, 2026 - 19:15
1 1.54
3 0.99
xG Accuracy: 50%
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Más / Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 GIL Vicente Arouca ✖ Incorrect
  • Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-0 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.

View technical JSON
{
  "bundle_version": 1,
  "content_hash": "7edaccd95331168362348e6d97794f3b368ca3d4ec4bb0c6af174c1b304aaae1",
  "decision_algo_version": "2.0.0",
  "facts": {
    "ai_fp": {
      "away_predicted_xg": 0.99,
      "away_win_prob": 0.2275,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2876,
      "fair_odds_away": 4.4,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.48,
      "fair_odds_home": 2.06,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.54,
      "home_win_prob": 0.4849,
      "prediction_confidence": "high"
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : GIL Vicente or draw",
      "main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
      "percent_away": "30%",
      "percent_draw": "35%",
      "percent_home": "35%",
      "winner_name": "GIL Vicente"
    },
    "away_xg": 0.99,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "GIL Vicente",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
        "edge": -0.0702,
        "edge_gap": 0.1981,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.5556,
        "model_prob": 0.4854,
        "pick_type": "no_value",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 22.7,
          "draw": 28.7,
          "home": 48.5
        },
        "reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 1.7
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 1.7,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "GIL Vicente Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 1.8,
        "market_odds": 1.7,
        "model_odds": 2.06,
        "overround": 5.9,
        "prob_edge": -10.3,
        "value_pct": -17.5,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 7,
        "away_failed_to_score": 9,
        "away_played": 32,
        "away_score_rate": 62.8,
        "home_clean_sheet": 12,
        "home_failed_to_score": 8,
        "home_played": 32,
        "home_score_rate": 78.6,
        "no_prob": 49.0,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 50.9,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "yes_prob": 50.9
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 0.99,
        "home_expected": 1.54,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 12.3
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 12.1
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-0",
            "prob": 9.4
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 9.4
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-0",
            "prob": 8.0
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "GIL Vicente or Draw",
            "prob": 77.3
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "GIL Vicente or Arouca",
            "prob": 71.3
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Arouca",
            "prob": 51.6
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "1X",
        "pick_label": "GIL Vicente or Draw",
        "pick_prob": 77.3
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 22.8,
        "draw_pct": 28.8,
        "home_pct": 48.5,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "GIL Vicente"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 2.53,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.3,
        "confidence": "low",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.4,
        "over_prob": 46.4,
        "pick": "Under 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 53.6,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 2.53,
        "under_prob": 53.6
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": 11.7,
        "implied_prob": 25.8,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Draw",
        "market": "Draw",
        "model_prob": 28.8,
        "odds": 3.88
      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-0",
        "prob": 12.3
      }
    },
    "home_xg": 1.54,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": -0.123,
        "ev_under": 0.0934,
        "featured": true,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": 0.0934,
        "over_prob": 46.4,
        "sort_key": 10234.06,
        "tier": "best",
        "under_prob": 53.6,
        "value_side": "under"
      },
      {
        "decision": "no_bet",
        "ev": -0.1195,
        "ev_available": true,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.5556,
        "max_ev": -0.0077,
        "model_prob": 0.4854,
        "side_label": "GIL Vicente",
        "sort_key": 1798.075,
        "tier": "bad_ev"
      },
      {
        "decision": "lean",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": -0.02,
        "ev_yes": -0.0685,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": -0.02,
        "no_prob": 49.0,
        "sort_key": 1795.0,
        "tier": "bad_ev",
        "value_side": "no",
        "yes_prob": 50.9
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 816.9,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "1-0",
        "top_prob": 12.3
      }
    ],
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 240,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/240.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Arouca",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/pt.svg",
      "country_name": "Portugal",
      "fixture_id": 1396529,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 762,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/762.webp",
      "home_team_name": "GIL Vicente",
      "league_country": "Portugal",
      "league_id": 94,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/94.webp",
      "league_name": "Primeira Liga",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-10 16:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
          "pred_conf_md_xg_borderline"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
          "Total xG in borderline band (high variance) (\u22121.5)"
        ],
        "score": 5.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.1921,
            "best_odd": 4.7,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0051,
            "ev": -0.0317,
            "implied_prob": 0.201,
            "model_prob": 0.2273,
            "p_final": 0.206
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2802,
            "best_odd": 3.88,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0123,
            "ev": -0.0077,
            "implied_prob": 0.2434,
            "model_prob": 0.2873,
            "p_final": 0.2557
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.5368,
            "best_odd": 1.7,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0377,
            "ev": -0.1195,
            "implied_prob": 0.5556,
            "model_prob": 0.4854,
            "p_final": 0.5179
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 2.0,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.83,
          "edge_no": 0.0144,
          "edge_yes": -0.0154,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.02,
          "ev_yes": -0.0685,
          "implied_no": 0.4756,
          "implied_yes": 0.5244,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 1.89,
          "best_under_odd": 2.04,
          "edge_over": -0.0545,
          "edge_under": 0.0545,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": -0.123,
          "ev_under": 0.0934,
          "implied_over": 0.5185,
          "implied_under": 0.4815,
          "n_bookmakers": 11,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.53,
      "variance_flag": true
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.0.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.0934,
      "confidence": 5.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
        ],
        "score": 5.0
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.509,
          "draw_prob": 0.2873,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.4854,
          "over_prob": 0.464,
          "total_xg": 2.53,
          "under_prob": 0.536,
          "xg_diff": 0.55
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": -0.0377,
          "ev": -0.1195,
          "implied_prob": 0.5556,
          "max_ev_side": "draw",
          "model_prob": 0.4854,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "GIL Vicente"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "lean",
          "edge": 0.0144,
          "ev": -0.02,
          "implied_prob": 0.4756,
          "model_prob": 0.49,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0545,
          "ev": 0.0934,
          "implied_prob": 0.4815,
          "model_prob": 0.536,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1396529,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.0934,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.2273,
        "draw": 0.2873,
        "home": 0.4854
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2",
        "variance_medium"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Arouca",
        "home": "GIL Vicente"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.030838,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.0934,
        "implied_prob": 0.4815,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.536,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 1
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1396529,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-10T15:59:34.655955+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
  • Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
  • No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
  • Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.

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Volver a Estadísticas
Primeira Liga Primeira LigaClasificación
# EQUIPO PJ G E P Pts
1 FC Porto 33 27 4 2 85
2 Benfica 32 22 10 0 76
3 Sporting CP 32 23 7 2 76
4 SC Braga 32 16 9 7 57
5 Famalicao 32 14 10 8 52
6 GIL Vicente 32 13 11 8 50
7 Moreirense 32 12 6 14 42
8 Guimaraes 32 12 6 14 42
9 Estoril 33 10 9 14 39
10 Alverca 33 10 9 14 39
11 Arouca 32 10 6 16 36
12 Rio Ave 32 8 11 13 35
13 Santa Clara 32 8 9 15 33
14 Nacional 32 8 7 17 31
15 Estrela 32 6 10 16 28
16 Casa Pia 32 5 11 16 26
17 Tondela 32 5 10 17 25
18 AVS 33 3 11 19 20
# EQUIPO PJ GF GC +/- Pts
1 Sporting CP 32 82 23 +59 76
2 Benfica 32 69 22 +47 76
3 FC Porto 33 65 18 +47 85
4 SC Braga 32 60 32 +28 57
5 Estoril 33 53 54 -1 39
6 GIL Vicente 32 46 32 +14 50
7 Famalicao 32 41 29 +12 52
8 Arouca 32 41 62 -21 36
9 Guimaraes 32 39 48 -9 42
10 Moreirense 32 37 47 -10 42
11 Estrela 32 36 54 -18 28
12 Nacional 32 35 43 -8 31
13 Alverca 33 35 51 -16 39
14 Rio Ave 32 33 52 -19 35
15 Santa Clara 32 30 40 -10 33
16 Casa Pia 32 29 56 -27 26
17 AVS 33 27 67 -40 20
18 Tondela 32 24 52 -28 25
# EQUIPO PJ xG xGC +/- Pts
1 Sporting CP 32 67.3 23.2 +44.1 76
2 FC Porto 33 61.3 22.1 +39.2 85
3 Benfica 32 64.2 25.7 +38.5 76
4 SC Braga 32 54.9 36.8 +18.1 57
5 Famalicao 32 45.0 33.2 +11.8 52
6 GIL Vicente 32 44.2 35.1 +9.1 50
7 Santa Clara 32 35.9 34.4 +1.5 33
8 Alverca 33 39.1 38.6 +0.5 39
9 Guimaraes 32 37.9 44.5 -6.6 42
10 Estoril 33 41.2 51.0 -9.8 39
11 Estrela 32 39.3 50.3 -11.0 28
12 Tondela 32 36.1 47.1 -11.0 25
13 Nacional 32 36.9 49.2 -12.3 31
14 Rio Ave 32 33.6 50.0 -16.4 35
15 Moreirense 32 30.4 49.6 -19.2 42
16 Arouca 32 29.2 48.9 -19.7 36
17 Casa Pia 32 29.3 54.1 -24.8 26
18 AVS 33 29.9 61.7 -31.8 20