Havelse vs FC Schweinfurt 05 Statistics & Analysis

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  "facts": {
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      "away_predicted_xg": 1.57,
      "away_win_prob": 0.2892,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2366,
      "fair_odds_away": 3.46,
      "fair_odds_draw": 4.23,
      "fair_odds_home": 2.11,
      "home_predicted_xg": 2.03,
      "home_win_prob": 0.4742,
      "prediction_confidence": "high"
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Winner : Havelse",
      "main_pick_display": "Winner : Havelse",
      "percent_away": "10%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "45%",
      "winner_name": "Havelse"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.57,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Havelse",
      "confidence": 47.4,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "Winner : Havelse",
        "edge": 0.0038,
        "edge_gap": 0.185,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.4705,
        "model_prob": 0.4742,
        "pick_type": "winner",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 28.9,
          "draw": 23.7,
          "home": 47.4
        },
        "reason": "",
        "selection": "home",
        "selection_name": "Havelse"
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 2.0
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": "#f44336",
      "risk_key": "high_risk",
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 2.0,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Havelse Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 2.13,
        "market_odds": 2.0,
        "model_odds": 2.11,
        "overround": 6.3,
        "prob_edge": -2.6,
        "value_pct": -5.2,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 2,
        "away_failed_to_score": 14,
        "away_played": 36,
        "away_score_rate": 79.2,
        "home_clean_sheet": 3,
        "home_failed_to_score": 7,
        "home_played": 36,
        "home_score_rate": 86.9,
        "no_prob": 30.1,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 69.9,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "yes_prob": 69.9
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.57,
        "home_expected": 2.03,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 8.8
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 8.7
          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-2",
            "prob": 6.9
          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-2",
            "prob": 6.8
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 3,
            "label": "3-1",
            "prob": 6.0
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Havelse or Draw",
            "prob": 71.1
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Havelse or FC Schweinfurt 05",
            "prob": 76.3
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or FC Schweinfurt 05",
            "prob": 52.6
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "12",
        "pick_label": "Havelse or FC Schweinfurt 05",
        "pick_prob": 76.3
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 28.9,
        "draw_pct": 23.7,
        "home_pct": 47.4,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "Havelse"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 3.6,
        "away_avg_scored": 0.9,
        "confidence": "high",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.5,
        "over_prob": 69.7,
        "pick": "Over 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 69.7,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 3.6,
        "under_prob": 30.3
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": -5.2,
        "implied_prob": 50.0,
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Home",
        "market": "Havelse Win",
        "model_prob": 47.4,
        "odds": 2.0
      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "2-1",
        "prob": 8.8
      }
    },
    "home_xg": 2.03,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": 0.0385,
        "ev_under": -0.1274,
        "featured": true,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": 0.0385,
        "over_prob": 69.7,
        "sort_key": 10034.65,
        "tier": "best",
        "under_prob": 30.3,
        "value_side": "over"
      },
      {
        "decision": "lean",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": -0.1572,
        "ev_yes": -0.0074,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": -0.0074,
        "no_prob": 30.1,
        "sort_key": 1798.15,
        "tier": "bad_ev",
        "value_side": "yes",
        "yes_prob": 69.9
      },
      {
        "decision": "no_bet",
        "ev": -0.0557,
        "ev_available": true,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.4705,
        "max_ev": -0.0557,
        "model_prob": 0.4742,
        "side_label": "Havelse",
        "sort_key": 1786.075,
        "tier": "bad_ev"
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 806.4,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "2-1",
        "top_prob": 8.8
      }
    ],
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 1635,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1635.webp",
      "away_team_name": "FC Schweinfurt 05",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/de.svg",
      "country_name": "Germany",
      "fixture_id": 1394420,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 9342,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/9342.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Havelse",
      "league_country": "Germany",
      "league_id": 80,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/80.webp",
      "league_name": "3. Liga",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-09 12:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
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          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.2982,
            "best_odd": 3.21,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0012,
            "ev": -0.0628,
            "implied_prob": 0.2931,
            "model_prob": 0.2892,
            "p_final": 0.292
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2999,
            "best_odd": 3.98,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0,
            "ev": -0.0589,
            "implied_prob": 0.2364,
            "model_prob": 0.2366,
            "p_final": 0.2365
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          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.4475,
            "best_odd": 2.0,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0017,
            "ev": -0.0557,
            "implied_prob": 0.4705,
            "model_prob": 0.4742,
            "p_final": 0.4722
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        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 2.8,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.42,
          "edge_no": -0.0394,
          "edge_yes": 0.0394,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.1572,
          "ev_yes": -0.0074,
          "implied_no": 0.3404,
          "implied_yes": 0.6596,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
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        "ou25": {
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          "best_under_odd": 2.88,
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          "edge_under": -0.0447,
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          "ev_under": -0.1274,
          "implied_over": 0.6523,
          "implied_under": 0.3477,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 3.6,
      "variance_flag": false
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    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
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      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.0385,
      "confidence": 4.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
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          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
        ],
        "score": 4.0
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "C",
        "stake_factor": 0.0
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        "scoring_type": "high_scoring",
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          "btts_yes_prob": 0.699,
          "draw_prob": 0.2366,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.4742,
          "over_prob": 0.697,
          "total_xg": 3.6,
          "under_prob": 0.303,
          "xg_diff": 0.46
        },
        "type": "high_scoring",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.0385,
        "hero_display_only": true,
        "implied_prob": 0.6523,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.697,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "hero_display",
        "side": "over",
        "slot": "hero_display"
      },
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": 0.0017,
          "ev": -0.0557,
          "implied_prob": 0.4705,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.4742,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Havelse"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "lean",
          "edge": 0.0394,
          "ev": -0.0074,
          "implied_prob": 0.6596,
          "model_prob": 0.699,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0447,
          "ev": 0.0385,
          "implied_prob": 0.6523,
          "model_prob": 0.697,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1394420,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "optional",
        "actionable": false,
        "clear_edge": false,
        "code": "thin_edge",
        "execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
        "insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
        "max_valid_ev": 0.0385,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 0.25,
        "use_split_strip": true
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.2892,
        "draw": 0.2366,
        "home": 0.4742
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2",
        "high_total_goals"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "FC Schweinfurt 05",
        "home": "Havelse"
      },
      "top_pick": null,
      "valid_markets_count": 1
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1394420,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-09T11:59:18.407151+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}