TSV 1860 München vs FC Ingolstadt 04 Statistics & Analysis

{
  "bundle_version": 1,
  "content_hash": "b551decd87ddd658b40c4269aa2f3c1bdb36061294a59e092578cc8025a7e0e6",
  "decision_algo_version": "2.0.0",
  "facts": {
    "ai_fp": {
      "away_predicted_xg": 1.51,
      "away_win_prob": 0.2777,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2382,
      "fair_odds_away": 3.6,
      "fair_odds_draw": 4.2,
      "fair_odds_home": 2.07,
      "home_predicted_xg": 2.02,
      "home_win_prob": 0.4842,
      "prediction_confidence": "high"
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : TSV 1860 M\u00fcnchen or draw",
      "main_pick_display": "Winner : TSV 1860 M\u00fcnchen",
      "percent_away": "10%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "45%",
      "winner_name": "TSV 1860 M\u00fcnchen"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.51,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "TSV 1860 M\u00fcnchen",
      "confidence": 48.4,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "Winner : TSV 1860 M\u00fcnchen",
        "edge": 0.0725,
        "edge_gap": 0.2055,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.4111,
        "model_prob": 0.4836,
        "pick_type": "winner",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 27.8,
          "draw": 23.8,
          "home": 48.4
        },
        "reason": "",
        "selection": "home",
        "selection_name": "TSV 1860 M\u00fcnchen"
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 2.32
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": "#f44336",
      "risk_key": "high_risk",
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 2.32,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "TSV 1860 M\u00fcnchen Win",
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 2.43,
        "market_odds": 2.32,
        "model_odds": 2.07,
        "overround": 4.8,
        "prob_edge": 5.2,
        "value_pct": 12.1,
        "value_rating": "value_bet"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 7,
        "away_failed_to_score": 6,
        "away_played": 36,
        "away_score_rate": 77.9,
        "home_clean_sheet": 9,
        "home_failed_to_score": 7,
        "home_played": 36,
        "home_score_rate": 86.7,
        "no_prob": 31.3,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 68.7,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "yes_prob": 68.7
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.51,
        "home_expected": 2.02,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 9.0
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 8.9
          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-2",
            "prob": 6.8
          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-2",
            "prob": 6.7
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 3,
            "label": "3-1",
            "prob": 6.1
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "TSV 1860 M\u00fcnchen or Draw",
            "prob": 72.2
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "TSV 1860 M\u00fcnchen or FC Ingolstadt 04",
            "prob": 76.2
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or FC Ingolstadt 04",
            "prob": 51.6
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "12",
        "pick_label": "TSV 1860 M\u00fcnchen or FC Ingolstadt 04",
        "pick_prob": 76.2
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 27.8,
        "draw_pct": 23.8,
        "home_pct": 48.4,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "TSV 1860 M\u00fcnchen"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 3.53,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.6,
        "confidence": "high",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.5,
        "over_prob": 68.5,
        "pick": "Over 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 68.5,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 3.53,
        "under_prob": 31.5
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": 12.3,
        "implied_prob": 43.1,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Home",
        "market": "TSV 1860 M\u00fcnchen Win",
        "model_prob": 48.4,
        "odds": 2.32
      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "2-1",
        "prob": 9.0
      }
    },
    "home_xg": 2.02,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "small_edge",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": 0.0275,
        "ev_under": -0.1338,
        "featured": true,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": 0.0275,
        "over_prob": 68.5,
        "sort_key": 5222.0,
        "tier": "lean",
        "under_prob": 31.5,
        "value_side": "over"
      },
      {
        "decision": "small_edge",
        "ev": 0.0212,
        "ev_available": true,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.4111,
        "max_ev": 0.0212,
        "model_prob": 0.4836,
        "side_label": "TSV 1860 M\u00fcnchen",
        "sort_key": 5216.96,
        "tier": "lean"
      },
      {
        "decision": "lean",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": -0.1236,
        "ev_yes": -0.0107,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": -0.0107,
        "no_prob": 31.3,
        "sort_key": 1797.325,
        "tier": "bad_ev",
        "value_side": "yes",
        "yes_prob": 68.7
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 807.0,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "2-1",
        "top_prob": 9.0
      }
    ],
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 184,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/184.webp",
      "away_team_name": "FC Ingolstadt 04",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/de.svg",
      "country_name": "Germany",
      "fixture_id": 1394418,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 786,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/786.webp",
      "home_team_name": "TSV 1860 M\u00fcnchen",
      "league_country": "Germany",
      "league_id": 80,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/80.webp",
      "league_name": "3. Liga",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-09 12:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.4044,
            "best_odd": 2.76,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0273,
            "ev": -0.1216,
            "implied_prob": 0.3456,
            "model_prob": 0.2781,
            "p_final": 0.3183
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2978,
            "best_odd": 3.92,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0015,
            "ev": -0.052,
            "implied_prob": 0.2433,
            "model_prob": 0.2383,
            "p_final": 0.2418
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.4011,
            "best_odd": 2.32,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0291,
            "ev": 0.0212,
            "implied_prob": 0.4111,
            "model_prob": 0.4836,
            "p_final": 0.4402
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 2.8,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.44,
          "edge_no": -0.0323,
          "edge_yes": 0.0323,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.1236,
          "ev_yes": -0.0107,
          "implied_no": 0.3453,
          "implied_yes": 0.6547,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 1.5,
          "best_under_odd": 2.75,
          "edge_over": 0.0465,
          "edge_under": -0.0465,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": 0.0275,
          "ev_under": -0.1338,
          "implied_over": 0.6385,
          "implied_under": 0.3615,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 3.53,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.0.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.0275,
      "confidence": 4.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 4.5
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "C",
        "stake_factor": 0.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "high_scoring",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.687,
          "draw_prob": 0.2383,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.4836,
          "over_prob": 0.685,
          "total_xg": 3.53,
          "under_prob": 0.315,
          "xg_diff": 0.51
        },
        "type": "high_scoring",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": {
        "decision": "small_edge",
        "ev": 0.0275,
        "hero_display_only": true,
        "implied_prob": 0.6385,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.685,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "hero_display",
        "side": "over",
        "slot": "hero_display"
      },
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "small_edge",
          "edge": 0.0291,
          "ev": 0.0212,
          "implied_prob": 0.4111,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.4836,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "TSV 1860 M\u00fcnchen"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "lean",
          "edge": 0.0323,
          "ev": -0.0107,
          "implied_prob": 0.6547,
          "model_prob": 0.687,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "small_edge",
          "edge": 0.0465,
          "ev": 0.0275,
          "implied_prob": 0.6385,
          "model_prob": 0.685,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1394418,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "optional",
        "actionable": false,
        "clear_edge": false,
        "code": "thin_edge",
        "execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
        "insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
        "max_valid_ev": 0.0275,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 0.25,
        "use_split_strip": true
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.2781,
        "draw": 0.2383,
        "home": 0.4836
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "high_total_goals"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "FC Ingolstadt 04",
        "home": "TSV 1860 M\u00fcnchen"
      },
      "top_pick": null,
      "valid_markets_count": 2
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1394418,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-09T11:59:07.331632+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}