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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Más / Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Progres Niederkorn FC Differdange 03 ✖ Incorrect
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1 2-3 ✖ Incorrect
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "36d96195025341795f8ab7174207a3c5686531259aff715b9de5ede46dd8db08",
"decision_algo_version": "2.0.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.25,
"away_win_prob": null,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": null,
"fair_odds_away": null,
"fair_odds_draw": null,
"fair_odds_home": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.45,
"home_win_prob": null,
"prediction_confidence": "none"
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or FC Differdange 03",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "50%",
"percent_draw": "50%",
"percent_home": "0%",
"winner_name": "FC Differdange 03"
},
"away_xg": 1.25,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Progres Niederkorn",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.2088,
"edge_gap": 0.092,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2088,
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 32.6,
"draw": 25.7,
"home": 41.8
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": null
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 14,
"away_failed_to_score": 3,
"away_played": 27,
"away_score_rate": 88.9,
"home_clean_sheet": 4,
"home_failed_to_score": 9,
"home_played": 27,
"home_score_rate": 66.7,
"no_prob": 40.7,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 59.3,
"source": "stats",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 59.3
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.7,
"home_expected": 1.05,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 11.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.9
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 6.7
}
],
"source": "avg"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Progres Niederkorn or Draw",
"prob": 50.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Progres Niederkorn or FC Differdange 03",
"prob": 50.0
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or FC Differdange 03",
"prob": 100.0
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or FC Differdange 03",
"pick_prob": 100.0
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 50.0,
"draw_pct": 50.0,
"home_pct": 0.0,
"lean_key": "draw",
"lean_label": "Draw"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.75,
"away_avg_scored": 2.1,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.4,
"over_prob": 51.9,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.9,
"source": "avg",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 2.75,
"under_prob": 48.1
},
"prob_source": null,
"value_bet_enhanced": null
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 11.4
}
},
"home_xg": 1.45,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2226,
"ev_yes": 0.0615,
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0615,
"no_prob": 40.7,
"sort_key": 10205.35,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 59.3
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0404,
"ev_available": true,
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2088,
"max_ev": 0.0404,
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"side_label": "Progres Niederkorn",
"sort_key": 10036.36,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0139,
"ev_under": -0.0861,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": -0.0139,
"over_prob": 51.9,
"sort_key": 1796.525,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"under_prob": 48.1,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 814.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 11.4
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 684,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/684.webp",
"away_team_name": "FC Differdange 03",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/lu.svg",
"country_name": "Luxembourg",
"fixture_id": 1393709,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 658,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/658.webp",
"home_team_name": "Progres Niederkorn",
"league_country": "Luxembourg",
"league_id": 261,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/261.webp",
"league_name": "National Division",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-10 14:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4116,
"best_odd": 1.71,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0861,
"ev": -0.2326,
"implied_prob": 0.5349,
"model_prob": 0.3257,
"p_final": 0.4488
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2998,
"best_odd": 3.57,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0001,
"ev": -0.0848,
"implied_prob": 0.2562,
"model_prob": 0.2567,
"p_final": 0.2564
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1374,
"best_odd": 4.38,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0287,
"ev": 0.0404,
"implied_prob": 0.2088,
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"p_final": 0.2375
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.91,
"best_yes_odd": 1.79,
"edge_no": -0.0779,
"edge_yes": 0.0779,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2226,
"ev_yes": 0.0615,
"implied_no": 0.4849,
"implied_yes": 0.5151,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.9,
"best_under_odd": 1.9,
"edge_over": 0.0171,
"edge_under": -0.0171,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0139,
"ev_under": -0.0861,
"implied_over": 0.5019,
"implied_under": 0.4981,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.0.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0615,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.593,
"draw_prob": 0.2567,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4177,
"over_prob": 0.519,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"under_prob": 0.481,
"xg_diff": 0.2
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0287,
"ev": 0.0404,
"implied_prob": 0.2088,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Progres Niederkorn"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0779,
"ev": 0.0615,
"implied_prob": 0.5151,
"model_prob": 0.593,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": 0.0171,
"ev": -0.0139,
"implied_prob": 0.5019,
"model_prob": 0.519,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1393709,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0615,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3257,
"draw": 0.2567,
"home": 0.4177
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "FC Differdange 03",
"home": "Progres Niederkorn"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.036469,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0615,
"implied_prob": 0.5151,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.593,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1393709,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-10T13:59:08.147253+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
- Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
- No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
- Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.
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National Division — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Differdange 03 | 28 | 18 | 8 | 2 | 62 |
| 2 | Atert Bissen | 28 | 18 | 5 | 5 | 59 |
| 3 | UNA Strassen | 28 | 17 | 5 | 6 | 56 |
| 4 | US Mondorf-les-bains | 28 | 18 | 2 | 8 | 56 |
| 5 | F91 Dudelange | 28 | 16 | 6 | 6 | 54 |
| 6 | UN Kaerjeng 97 | 28 | 11 | 5 | 12 | 38 |
| 7 | Victoria Rosport | 28 | 10 | 5 | 13 | 35 |
| 8 | Progres Niederkorn | 28 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 34 |
| 9 | AS Jeunesse Esch | 28 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 34 |
| 10 | Racing FC Union Luxembourg | 28 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 34 |
| 11 | US Hostert | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 33 |
| 12 | Jeunesse Canach | 28 | 9 | 3 | 16 | 30 |
| 13 | Mamer | 28 | 8 | 3 | 17 | 27 |
| 14 | Swift Hesperange | 28 | 7 | 5 | 16 | 26 |
| 15 | Union Titus Petange | 28 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 25 |
| 16 | Rodange 91 | 28 | 6 | 6 | 16 | 24 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atert Bissen | 28 | 64 | 27 | +37 | 59 |
| 2 | FC Differdange 03 | 28 | 61 | 21 | +40 | 62 |
| 3 | UNA Strassen | 28 | 56 | 25 | +31 | 56 |
| 4 | F91 Dudelange | 28 | 54 | 35 | +19 | 54 |
| 5 | US Mondorf-les-bains | 28 | 50 | 24 | +26 | 56 |
| 6 | UN Kaerjeng 97 | 28 | 43 | 44 | -1 | 38 |
| 7 | Progres Niederkorn | 28 | 41 | 41 | 0 | 34 |
| 8 | Racing FC Union Luxembourg | 28 | 41 | 49 | -8 | 34 |
| 9 | Mamer | 28 | 32 | 58 | -26 | 27 |
| 10 | AS Jeunesse Esch | 28 | 31 | 33 | -2 | 34 |
| 11 | Victoria Rosport | 28 | 31 | 43 | -12 | 35 |
| 12 | US Hostert | 28 | 31 | 53 | -22 | 33 |
| 13 | Jeunesse Canach | 28 | 29 | 39 | -10 | 30 |
| 14 | Rodange 91 | 28 | 26 | 58 | -32 | 24 |
| 15 | Swift Hesperange | 28 | 25 | 44 | -19 | 26 |
| 16 | Union Titus Petange | 28 | 24 | 45 | -21 | 25 |
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