VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayern München Statistics & Analysis

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  "decision_algo_version": "2.0.0",
  "facts": {
    "ai_fp": {
      "away_predicted_xg": 3.12,
      "away_win_prob": 0.7245,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.153,
      "fair_odds_away": 1.38,
      "fair_odds_draw": 6.54,
      "fair_odds_home": 8.16,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.32,
      "home_win_prob": 0.1225,
      "prediction_confidence": "high"
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Combo Winner : Bayern M\u00fcnchen and +1.5 goals",
      "main_pick_display": "Winner : Bayern M\u00fcnchen",
      "percent_away": "45%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "10%",
      "winner_name": "Bayern M\u00fcnchen"
    },
    "away_xg": 3.12,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Bayern M\u00fcnchen",
      "confidence": 72.5,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "high",
        "display_text": "Winner : Bayern M\u00fcnchen",
        "edge": 0.1143,
        "edge_gap": 0.5717,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.6103,
        "model_prob": 0.7246,
        "pick_type": "winner",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 72.5,
          "draw": 15.3,
          "home": 12.3
        },
        "reason": "",
        "selection": "away",
        "selection_name": "Bayern M\u00fcnchen"
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 1.59
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": "#ff9800",
      "risk_key": "medium_risk",
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 1.59,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Bayern M\u00fcnchen Win",
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Away",
        "market_fair_odds": 1.64,
        "market_odds": 1.59,
        "model_odds": 1.38,
        "overround": 3.1,
        "prob_edge": 9.6,
        "value_pct": 15.2,
        "value_rating": "value_bet"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 11,
        "away_failed_to_score": 0,
        "away_played": 32,
        "away_score_rate": 95.6,
        "home_clean_sheet": 2,
        "home_failed_to_score": 7,
        "home_played": 32,
        "home_score_rate": 73.3,
        "no_prob": 29.3,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 70.7,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "yes_prob": 70.7
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 3.12,
        "home_expected": 1.32,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 3,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-3",
            "prob": 7.9
          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-2",
            "prob": 7.6
          },
          {
            "away": 4,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-4",
            "prob": 6.1
          },
          {
            "away": 3,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-3",
            "prob": 6.0
          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-2",
            "prob": 5.7
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "VfL Wolfsburg or Draw",
            "prob": 27.5
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "VfL Wolfsburg or Bayern M\u00fcnchen",
            "prob": 84.7
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Bayern M\u00fcnchen",
            "prob": 87.8
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "X2",
        "pick_label": "Draw or Bayern M\u00fcnchen",
        "pick_prob": 87.8
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 72.5,
        "draw_pct": 15.3,
        "home_pct": 12.2,
        "lean_key": "away",
        "lean_label": "Bayern M\u00fcnchen"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": "+1.5",
        "avg_total": 4.44,
        "away_avg_scored": 3.6,
        "confidence": "high",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.3,
        "over_prob": 82.0,
        "pick": "Over 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 82.0,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 4.44,
        "under_prob": 18.0
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": 15.3,
        "implied_prob": 62.9,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Away",
        "market": "Bayern M\u00fcnchen Win",
        "model_prob": 72.5,
        "odds": 1.59
      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-3",
        "prob": 7.9
      }
    },
    "home_xg": 1.32,
    "homepage_pick": {
      "best_bookmaker": "1xBet",
      "best_odds": 1.66,
      "confidence": "very_strong",
      "display_label": "Away Bayern M\u00fcnchen",
      "edge": 12.2,
      "ev": 20.3,
      "probability": 72.5
    },
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.0607,
        "ev_available": true,
        "featured": true,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.6103,
        "max_ev": 0.0607,
        "model_prob": 0.7246,
        "side_label": "Bayern M\u00fcnchen",
        "sort_key": 10204.63,
        "tier": "best"
      },
      {
        "decision": "small_edge",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": 0.025,
        "ev_under": -0.2206,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": 0.025,
        "over_prob": 82.0,
        "sort_key": 5220.0,
        "tier": "lean",
        "under_prob": 18.0,
        "value_side": "over"
      },
      {
        "decision": "lean",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": -0.0331,
        "ev_yes": -0.0597,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": -0.0331,
        "no_prob": 29.3,
        "sort_key": 1791.725,
        "tier": "bad_ev",
        "value_side": "no",
        "yes_prob": 70.7
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 803.7,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "1-3",
        "top_prob": 7.9
      }
    ],
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 157,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/157.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Bayern M\u00fcnchen",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/de.svg",
      "country_name": "Germany",
      "fixture_id": 1388604,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 161,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/161.webp",
      "home_team_name": "VfL Wolfsburg",
      "league_country": "Germany",
      "league_id": 78,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/78.webp",
      "league_name": "Bundesliga",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-09 13:30:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
    "match_decision": {
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        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 9.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.4971,
            "best_odd": 1.59,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0568,
            "ev": 0.0607,
            "implied_prob": 0.6103,
            "model_prob": 0.7246,
            "p_final": 0.6671
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          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.1873,
            "best_odd": 4.97,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0079,
            "ev": -0.0691,
            "implied_prob": 0.1952,
            "model_prob": 0.1529,
            "p_final": 0.1873
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          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.1784,
            "best_odd": 4.99,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "edge": -0.0128,
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            "implied_prob": 0.1945,
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        "btts": {
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          "best_yes_odd": 1.33,
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          "edge_yes": -0.0061,
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          "ev_yes": -0.0597,
          "implied_no": 0.2869,
          "implied_yes": 0.7131,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
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        "ou25": {
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          "edge_under": -0.0556,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": 0.025,
          "ev_under": -0.2206,
          "implied_over": 0.7644,
          "implied_under": 0.2356,
          "n_bookmakers": 9,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 4.44,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
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      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
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      "confidence": 6.5,
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        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
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        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": true,
        "1x2_open_contest": false,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "strong_signal",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.707,
          "draw_prob": 0.1529,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.7246,
          "over_prob": 0.82,
          "total_xg": 4.44,
          "under_prob": 0.18,
          "xg_diff": 1.8
        },
        "type": "strong_signal",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0568,
          "ev": 0.0607,
          "implied_prob": 0.6103,
          "max_ev_side": "away",
          "model_prob": 0.7246,
          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "Bayern M\u00fcnchen"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "lean",
          "edge": 0.0061,
          "ev": -0.0331,
          "implied_prob": 0.2869,
          "model_prob": 0.293,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "small_edge",
          "edge": 0.0556,
          "ev": 0.025,
          "implied_prob": 0.7644,
          "model_prob": 0.82,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1388604,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "optional",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": false,
        "code": "thin_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.0607,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 0.25,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.7246,
        "draw": 0.1529,
        "home": 0.1225
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "high_total_goals"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Bayern M\u00fcnchen",
        "home": "VfL Wolfsburg"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.05278,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.0607,
        "implied_prob": 0.6103,
        "market": "1x2",
        "model_prob": 0.7246,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "away",
        "side_label": "Bayern M\u00fcnchen",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1388604,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-09T13:29:05.093771+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}