RB Leipzig vs FC St. Pauli Statistics & Analysis

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  "decision_algo_version": "2.0.0",
  "facts": {
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      "away_predicted_xg": 0.72,
      "away_win_prob": 0.0619,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.1434,
      "fair_odds_away": 16.15,
      "fair_odds_draw": 6.97,
      "fair_odds_home": 1.26,
      "home_predicted_xg": 2.79,
      "home_win_prob": 0.7947,
      "prediction_confidence": "high"
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Winner : RB Leipzig",
      "main_pick_display": "Winner : RB Leipzig",
      "percent_away": "0%",
      "percent_draw": "50%",
      "percent_home": "50%",
      "winner_name": "RB Leipzig"
    },
    "away_xg": 0.72,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "RB Leipzig",
      "confidence": 79.4,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "medium",
        "display_text": "Winner : RB Leipzig",
        "edge": 0.0646,
        "edge_gap": 0.6508,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.7298,
        "model_prob": 0.7944,
        "pick_type": "winner",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 6.2,
          "draw": 14.4,
          "home": 79.4
        },
        "reason": "",
        "selection": "home",
        "selection_name": "RB Leipzig"
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 1.33
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": "#ff9800",
      "risk_key": "medium_risk",
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 1.33,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "RB Leipzig Win",
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 1.37,
        "market_odds": 1.33,
        "model_odds": 1.26,
        "overround": 3.0,
        "prob_edge": 4.2,
        "value_pct": 5.6,
        "value_rating": "small_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 5,
        "away_failed_to_score": 13,
        "away_played": 32,
        "away_score_rate": 51.3,
        "home_clean_sheet": 11,
        "home_failed_to_score": 3,
        "home_played": 32,
        "home_score_rate": 93.9,
        "no_prob": 51.0,
        "pick": "No",
        "pick_prob": 51.0,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 48.9
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 0.72,
        "home_expected": 2.79,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-0",
            "prob": 11.6
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 3,
            "label": "3-0",
            "prob": 10.8
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 8.4
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 8.3
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 3,
            "label": "3-1",
            "prob": 7.8
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "RB Leipzig or Draw",
            "prob": 93.8
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "RB Leipzig or FC St. Pauli",
            "prob": 85.7
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or FC St. Pauli",
            "prob": 20.5
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "1X",
        "pick_label": "RB Leipzig or Draw",
        "pick_prob": 93.8
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 6.2,
        "draw_pct": 14.3,
        "home_pct": 79.5,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "RB Leipzig"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 3.51,
        "away_avg_scored": 0.8,
        "confidence": "high",
        "home_avg_scored": 2.0,
        "over_prob": 68.1,
        "pick": "Over 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 68.1,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "total_expected": 3.51,
        "under_prob": 31.9
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": 5.7,
        "implied_prob": 75.2,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Home",
        "market": "RB Leipzig Win",
        "model_prob": 79.5,
        "odds": 1.33
      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "2-0",
        "prob": 11.6
      }
    },
    "home_xg": 2.79,
    "homepage_pick": {
      "best_bookmaker": "1xBet",
      "best_odds": 1.46,
      "confidence": "very_strong",
      "display_label": "Home RB Leipzig",
      "edge": 10.9,
      "ev": 15.9,
      "probability": 79.4
    },
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": 0.0965,
        "ev_yes": -0.1198,
        "featured": true,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": 0.0965,
        "no_prob": 51.0,
        "sort_key": 10236.85,
        "tier": "best",
        "value_side": "no",
        "yes_prob": 48.9
      },
      {
        "decision": "small_edge",
        "ev": 0.0172,
        "ev_available": true,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.7298,
        "max_ev": 0.0172,
        "model_prob": 0.7944,
        "side_label": "RB Leipzig",
        "sort_key": 5213.76,
        "tier": "lean"
      },
      {
        "decision": "lean",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": -0.0126,
        "ev_under": -0.0781,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": -0.0126,
        "over_prob": 68.1,
        "sort_key": 1796.85,
        "tier": "bad_ev",
        "under_prob": 31.9,
        "value_side": "over"
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 814.8,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "2-0",
        "top_prob": 11.6
      }
    ],
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 186,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/186.webp",
      "away_team_name": "FC St. Pauli",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/de.svg",
      "country_name": "Germany",
      "fixture_id": 1388602,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 173,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/173.webp",
      "home_team_name": "RB Leipzig",
      "league_country": "Germany",
      "league_id": 78,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/78.webp",
      "league_name": "Bundesliga",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-09 13:30:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 9.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.1866,
            "best_odd": 9.09,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0084,
            "ev": -0.1053,
            "implied_prob": 0.1068,
            "model_prob": 0.062,
            "p_final": 0.0984
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.1941,
            "best_odd": 5.94,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0038,
            "ev": -0.0522,
            "implied_prob": 0.1634,
            "model_prob": 0.1436,
            "p_final": 0.1596
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          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.5419,
            "best_odd": 1.33,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.035,
            "ev": 0.0172,
            "implied_prob": 0.7298,
            "model_prob": 0.7944,
            "p_final": 0.7648
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        },
        "btts": {
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          "best_yes_odd": 1.8,
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          "edge_yes": -0.0516,
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          "ev_yes": -0.1198,
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          "implied_yes": 0.5406,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
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          "edge_under": -0.0235,
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          "implied_over": 0.6575,
          "implied_under": 0.3425,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
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      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 3.51,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.0.0"
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      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.0965,
      "confidence": 6.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
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      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": true,
        "1x2_open_contest": false,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
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      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
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      "game_type": {
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        "scoring_type": "strong_signal",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.489,
          "draw_prob": 0.1436,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.7944,
          "over_prob": 0.681,
          "total_xg": 3.51,
          "under_prob": 0.319,
          "xg_diff": 2.07
        },
        "type": "strong_signal",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
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      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "small_edge",
          "edge": 0.035,
          "ev": 0.0172,
          "implied_prob": 0.7298,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.7944,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "RB Leipzig"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0506,
          "ev": 0.0965,
          "implied_prob": 0.4594,
          "model_prob": 0.51,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "lean",
          "edge": 0.0235,
          "ev": -0.0126,
          "implied_prob": 0.6575,
          "model_prob": 0.681,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1388602,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.0965,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.062,
        "draw": 0.1436,
        "home": 0.7944
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "high_total_goals"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "FC St. Pauli",
        "home": "RB Leipzig"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.049215,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.0965,
        "implied_prob": 0.4594,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.51,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "no",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 1
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1388602,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-09T13:29:16.974910+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}