1899 Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen Statistics & Analysis

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      "away_win_prob": 0.2228,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2709,
      "fair_odds_away": 4.49,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.69,
      "fair_odds_home": 1.98,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.69,
      "home_win_prob": 0.5062,
      "prediction_confidence": "high"
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : 1899 Hoffenheim or draw",
      "main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
      "percent_away": "10%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "45%",
      "winner_name": "1899 Hoffenheim"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.06,
    "betting_insight": {
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      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
        "edge": -0.1408,
        "edge_gap": 0.2343,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.6465,
        "model_prob": 0.5057,
        "pick_type": "no_value",
        "probabilities": {
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          "draw": 27.1,
          "home": 50.6
        },
        "reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
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      "market_comparison": [
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          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 1.5
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      "risk_color": null,
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      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 1.5,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "1899 Hoffenheim Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 1.55,
        "market_odds": 1.5,
        "model_odds": 1.98,
        "overround": 3.1,
        "prob_edge": -16.2,
        "value_pct": -24.2,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
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    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 6,
        "away_failed_to_score": 11,
        "away_played": 32,
        "away_score_rate": 65.4,
        "home_clean_sheet": 6,
        "home_failed_to_score": 5,
        "home_played": 32,
        "home_score_rate": 81.5,
        "no_prob": 45.2,
        "pick": "No",
        "pick_prob": 54.8,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 54.8
      },
      "correct_score": {
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        "home_expected": 1.69,
        "scores": [
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            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 11.5
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 10.8
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          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 9.7
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            "away": 0,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-0",
            "prob": 9.1
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            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
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        ],
        "source": "xG"
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      "double_chance": {
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            "label": "1899 Hoffenheim or Draw",
            "prob": 77.7
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          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "1899 Hoffenheim or Werder Bremen",
            "prob": 72.9
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            "key": "X2",
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          }
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        "pick_key": "1X",
        "pick_label": "1899 Hoffenheim or Draw",
        "pick_prob": 77.7
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      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 22.3,
        "draw_pct": 27.1,
        "home_pct": 50.6,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "1899 Hoffenheim"
      },
      "over_under": {
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        "avg_total": 2.75,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.2,
        "confidence": "low",
        "home_avg_scored": 2.0,
        "over_prob": 51.8,
        "pick": "Under 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 51.8,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 2.75,
        "under_prob": 48.1
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
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        "edge": 38.8,
        "implied_prob": 19.5,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Draw",
        "market": "Draw",
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        "odds": 5.12
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        "label": "0-0",
        "probability": 6.4
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      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
        "prob": 11.5
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    },
    "home_xg": 1.69,
    "homepage_pick": null,
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        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": -0.2852,
        "ev_under": 0.5392,
        "featured": true,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": 0.5392,
        "over_prob": 51.8,
        "sort_key": 10635.28,
        "tier": "best",
        "under_prob": 48.1,
        "value_side": "under"
      },
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": 0.1888,
        "ev_yes": -0.178,
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        "sort_key": 10169.92,
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        "value_side": "no",
        "yes_prob": 54.8
      },
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        "decision": "no_bet",
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        "id": "1x2",
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        "tier": "lean"
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      {
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    "match": {
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      "away_team_id": 162,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/162.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Werder Bremen",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/de.svg",
      "country_name": "Germany",
      "fixture_id": 1388600,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 167,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/167.webp",
      "home_team_name": "1899 Hoffenheim",
      "league_country": "Germany",
      "league_id": 78,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/78.webp",
      "league_name": "Bundesliga",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-09 13:30:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
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        "score": 7.5
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            "best_odd": 5.91,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "ev": 0.0332,
            "implied_prob": 0.1641,
            "model_prob": 0.223,
            "p_final": 0.1748
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            "alpha": 0.1754,
            "best_odd": 5.12,
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              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.4732,
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            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "ev": -0.1302,
            "implied_prob": 0.6465,
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          "implied_under": 0.3092,
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      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.75,
      "variance_flag": false
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      "algorithm": {
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      "confidence": 7.5,
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        "1x2_open_contest": false,
        "grade": "A",
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        "gap": null,
        "side": null
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      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
        "scoring_type": "neutral",
        "signals": {
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          "max_1x2_prob": 0.5057,
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          "total_xg": 2.75,
          "under_prob": 0.481,
          "xg_diff": 0.63
        },
        "type": "neutral",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
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      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.0433,
          "implied_prob": 0.1894,
          "market": "1x2",
          "model_prob": 0.2713,
          "not_dominant": true,
          "risk_band": "speculative",
          "risk_tier": "longshot",
          "side": "draw",
          "side_label": "draw",
          "slot": "longshot"
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        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
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          "not_dominant": true,
          "risk_band": "longshot",
          "risk_tier": "longshot",
          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "Werder Bremen",
          "slot": "longshot"
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      ],
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          "max_ev_side": "draw",
          "model_prob": 0.5057,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "1899 Hoffenheim"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
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        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1718,
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          "model_prob": 0.481,
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          "value_side": "under"
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      },
      "match_id": 1388600,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
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        "insight_line_key": null,
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        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
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        "away": 0.223,
        "draw": 0.2713,
        "home": 0.5057
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        "longshot_high_variance"
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      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
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        "slot": "secondary"
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          "risk_band": "medium",
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          "slot": "secondary"
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      ],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Werder Bremen",
        "home": "1899 Hoffenheim"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.259355,
        "decision": "value_bet",
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        "model_prob": 0.481,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 4
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  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-09T13:29:08.199428+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}