Hamburger SV vs SC Freiburg Statistics & Analysis

{
  "bundle_version": 1,
  "content_hash": "8c61d1a7b1b9f32d53f71a269adb0c7837b4e62a5bedede7220be4aed8ef0edd",
  "decision_algo_version": "2.0.0",
  "facts": {
    "ai_fp": {
      "away_predicted_xg": 1.66,
      "away_win_prob": 0.4275,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2671,
      "fair_odds_away": 2.34,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.74,
      "fair_odds_home": 3.27,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.38,
      "home_win_prob": 0.3054,
      "prediction_confidence": "high"
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : draw or SC Freiburg",
      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "45%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "10%",
      "winner_name": "SC Freiburg"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.66,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "SC Freiburg",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
        "edge": 0.0401,
        "edge_gap": 0.1215,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.387,
        "model_prob": 0.4271,
        "pick_type": "no_strong",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 42.7,
          "draw": 26.7,
          "home": 30.6
        },
        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 2.5
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 2.5,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "SC Freiburg Win",
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Away",
        "market_fair_odds": 2.58,
        "market_odds": 2.5,
        "model_odds": 2.34,
        "overround": 3.4,
        "prob_edge": 2.7,
        "value_pct": 6.8,
        "value_rating": "small_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 6,
        "away_failed_to_score": 9,
        "away_played": 32,
        "away_score_rate": 81.0,
        "home_clean_sheet": 6,
        "home_failed_to_score": 10,
        "home_played": 32,
        "home_score_rate": 74.8,
        "no_prob": 38.0,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 62.0,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "yes_prob": 62.0
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.66,
        "home_expected": 1.38,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 11.0
          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-2",
            "prob": 9.1
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-1",
            "prob": 7.9
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 7.6
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 6.6
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Hamburger SV or Draw",
            "prob": 57.2
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Hamburger SV or SC Freiburg",
            "prob": 73.3
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or SC Freiburg",
            "prob": 69.5
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "12",
        "pick_label": "Hamburger SV or SC Freiburg",
        "pick_prob": 73.3
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 42.8,
        "draw_pct": 26.7,
        "home_pct": 30.5,
        "lean_key": "away",
        "lean_label": "SC Freiburg"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 3.04,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.4,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.1,
        "over_prob": 58.6,
        "pick": "Over 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 58.6,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 3.04,
        "under_prob": 41.4
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": 7.0,
        "implied_prob": 40.0,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Away",
        "market": "SC Freiburg Win",
        "model_prob": 42.8,
        "odds": 2.5
      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
        "prob": 11.0
      }
    },
    "home_xg": 1.38,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": 0.0314,
        "ev_under": -0.0768,
        "featured": true,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": 0.0314,
        "over_prob": 58.6,
        "sort_key": 10028.26,
        "tier": "best",
        "under_prob": 41.4,
        "value_side": "over"
      },
      {
        "decision": "small_edge",
        "ev": 0.0099,
        "ev_available": true,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.387,
        "max_ev": 0.0099,
        "model_prob": 0.4271,
        "side_label": "SC Freiburg",
        "sort_key": 5207.92,
        "tier": "lean"
      },
      {
        "decision": "lean",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": -0.0956,
        "ev_yes": -0.008,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": -0.008,
        "no_prob": 38.0,
        "sort_key": 1798.0,
        "tier": "bad_ev",
        "value_side": "yes",
        "yes_prob": 62.0
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 813.0,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "1-1",
        "top_prob": 11.0
      }
    ],
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 160,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/160.webp",
      "away_team_name": "SC Freiburg",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/de.svg",
      "country_name": "Germany",
      "fixture_id": 1388599,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 175,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/175.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Hamburger SV",
      "league_country": "Germany",
      "league_id": 78,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/78.webp",
      "league_name": "Bundesliga",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-09 13:30:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.4229,
            "best_odd": 2.5,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.017,
            "ev": 0.0099,
            "implied_prob": 0.387,
            "model_prob": 0.4271,
            "p_final": 0.404
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2949,
            "best_odd": 3.78,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0033,
            "ev": -0.0199,
            "implied_prob": 0.256,
            "model_prob": 0.2672,
            "p_final": 0.2593
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.4153,
            "best_odd": 2.71,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0213,
            "ev": -0.0903,
            "implied_prob": 0.357,
            "model_prob": 0.3056,
            "p_final": 0.3357
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 2.38,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.6,
          "edge_no": -0.023,
          "edge_yes": 0.023,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.0956,
          "ev_yes": -0.008,
          "implied_no": 0.403,
          "implied_yes": 0.597,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 1.76,
          "best_under_odd": 2.23,
          "edge_over": 0.0269,
          "edge_under": -0.0269,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": 0.0314,
          "ev_under": -0.0768,
          "implied_over": 0.5591,
          "implied_under": 0.4409,
          "n_bookmakers": 11,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 3.04,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.0.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.0314,
      "confidence": 4.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
        ],
        "score": 4.0
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "C",
        "stake_factor": 0.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "high_scoring",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.62,
          "draw_prob": 0.2672,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.4271,
          "over_prob": 0.586,
          "total_xg": 3.04,
          "under_prob": 0.414,
          "xg_diff": 0.28
        },
        "type": "high_scoring",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.0314,
        "hero_display_only": true,
        "implied_prob": 0.5591,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.586,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "hero_display",
        "side": "over",
        "slot": "hero_display"
      },
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "small_edge",
          "edge": 0.017,
          "ev": 0.0099,
          "implied_prob": 0.387,
          "max_ev_side": "away",
          "model_prob": 0.4271,
          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "SC Freiburg"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "lean",
          "edge": 0.023,
          "ev": -0.008,
          "implied_prob": 0.597,
          "model_prob": 0.62,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0269,
          "ev": 0.0314,
          "implied_prob": 0.5591,
          "model_prob": 0.586,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1388599,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "optional",
        "actionable": false,
        "clear_edge": false,
        "code": "thin_edge",
        "execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
        "insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
        "max_valid_ev": 0.0314,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 0.25,
        "use_split_strip": true
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.4271,
        "draw": 0.2672,
        "home": 0.3056
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "high_total_goals"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "SC Freiburg",
        "home": "Hamburger SV"
      },
      "top_pick": null,
      "valid_markets_count": 1
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1388599,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-09T13:29:06.661829+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}