Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt Statistics & Analysis

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      "away_predicted_xg": 0.92,
      "away_win_prob": 0.101,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.1743,
      "fair_odds_away": 9.9,
      "fair_odds_draw": 5.74,
      "fair_odds_home": 1.38,
      "home_predicted_xg": 2.6,
      "home_win_prob": 0.7247,
      "prediction_confidence": "high"
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : Borussia Dortmund or draw",
      "main_pick_display": "Winner : Borussia Dortmund",
      "percent_away": "10%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "45%",
      "winner_name": "Borussia Dortmund"
    },
    "away_xg": 0.92,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Borussia Dortmund",
      "confidence": 72.5,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "high",
        "display_text": "Winner : Borussia Dortmund",
        "edge": 0.1658,
        "edge_gap": 0.5505,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.5589,
        "model_prob": 0.7247,
        "pick_type": "winner",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 10.1,
          "draw": 17.4,
          "home": 72.5
        },
        "reason": "",
        "selection": "home",
        "selection_name": "Borussia Dortmund"
      },
      "market_comparison": [
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          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 1.73
        }
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      "risk_color": "#ff9800",
      "risk_key": "medium_risk",
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 1.73,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Borussia Dortmund Win",
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 1.79,
        "market_odds": 1.73,
        "model_odds": 1.38,
        "overround": 3.4,
        "prob_edge": 14.7,
        "value_pct": 25.4,
        "value_rating": "strong_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 7,
        "away_failed_to_score": 3,
        "away_played": 32,
        "away_score_rate": 60.1,
        "home_clean_sheet": 14,
        "home_failed_to_score": 2,
        "home_played": 32,
        "home_score_rate": 92.6,
        "no_prob": 43.4,
        "pick": "No",
        "pick_prob": 56.6,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 56.6
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 0.92,
        "home_expected": 2.6,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-0",
            "prob": 10.0
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 9.2
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 3,
            "label": "3-0",
            "prob": 8.7
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 3,
            "label": "3-1",
            "prob": 8.0
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 7.7
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
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      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
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            "label": "Borussia Dortmund or Draw",
            "prob": 89.9
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Borussia Dortmund or Eintracht Frankfurt",
            "prob": 82.6
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Eintracht Frankfurt",
            "prob": 27.5
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "1X",
        "pick_label": "Borussia Dortmund or Draw",
        "pick_prob": 89.9
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 10.1,
        "draw_pct": 17.4,
        "home_pct": 72.5,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "Borussia Dortmund"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 3.52,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.8,
        "confidence": "high",
        "home_avg_scored": 2.0,
        "over_prob": 68.3,
        "pick": "Over 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 68.3,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "total_expected": 3.52,
        "under_prob": 31.7
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": 25.4,
        "implied_prob": 57.8,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Home",
        "market": "Borussia Dortmund Win",
        "model_prob": 72.5,
        "odds": 1.73
      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "2-0",
        "prob": 10.0
      }
    },
    "home_xg": 2.6,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": 0.2152,
        "ev_yes": -0.185,
        "featured": true,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": 0.2152,
        "no_prob": 43.4,
        "sort_key": 10343.68,
        "tier": "best",
        "value_side": "no",
        "yes_prob": 56.6
      },
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.0963,
        "ev_available": true,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.5589,
        "max_ev": 0.0963,
        "model_prob": 0.7247,
        "side_label": "Borussia Dortmund",
        "sort_key": 10086.67,
        "tier": "best"
      },
      {
        "decision": "lean",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": -0.0165,
        "ev_under": -0.049,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": -0.0165,
        "over_prob": 68.3,
        "sort_key": 1795.875,
        "tier": "bad_ev",
        "under_prob": 31.7,
        "value_side": "over"
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 810.0,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "2-0",
        "top_prob": 10.0
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    ],
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 169,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/169.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Eintracht Frankfurt",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/de.svg",
      "country_name": "Germany",
      "fixture_id": 1388597,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 165,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/165.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Borussia Dortmund",
      "league_country": "Germany",
      "league_id": 78,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/78.webp",
      "league_name": "Bundesliga",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-09 13:30:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
    "match_decision": {
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        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 9.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.1636,
            "best_odd": 4.35,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0198,
            "ev": -0.1193,
            "implied_prob": 0.2223,
            "model_prob": 0.101,
            "p_final": 0.2024
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.1866,
            "best_odd": 4.42,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0083,
            "ev": -0.0698,
            "implied_prob": 0.2188,
            "model_prob": 0.1742,
            "p_final": 0.2105
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          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.4508,
            "best_odd": 1.73,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0747,
            "ev": 0.0963,
            "implied_prob": 0.5589,
            "model_prob": 0.7247,
            "p_final": 0.6337
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        },
        "btts": {
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          "best_yes_odd": 1.44,
          "edge_no": 0.0881,
          "edge_yes": -0.0881,
          "ev_available": true,
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          "ev_yes": -0.185,
          "implied_no": 0.3459,
          "implied_yes": 0.6541,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
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        "ou25": {
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          "best_under_odd": 3.0,
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          "edge_under": -0.0106,
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          "implied_under": 0.3276,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
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      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 3.52,
      "variance_flag": false
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      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
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      "best_tracked_ev": 0.2152,
      "confidence": 7.5,
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          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
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        "score": 7.5
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      "execution": {
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        "1x2_open_contest": false,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
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        "side": null
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        "scoring_type": "strong_signal",
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          "btts_yes_prob": 0.566,
          "draw_prob": 0.1742,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.7247,
          "over_prob": 0.683,
          "total_xg": 3.52,
          "under_prob": 0.317,
          "xg_diff": 1.68
        },
        "type": "strong_signal",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
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      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0747,
          "ev": 0.0963,
          "implied_prob": 0.5589,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.7247,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Borussia Dortmund"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0881,
          "ev": 0.2152,
          "implied_prob": 0.3459,
          "model_prob": 0.434,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "lean",
          "edge": 0.0106,
          "ev": -0.0165,
          "implied_prob": 0.6724,
          "model_prob": 0.683,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1388597,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "optional",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": false,
        "code": "thin_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.2152,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 0.25,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.101,
        "draw": 0.1742,
        "home": 0.7247
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "high_total_goals"
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      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.0963,
        "implied_prob": 0.5589,
        "market": "1x2",
        "model_prob": 0.7247,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "home",
        "side_label": "Borussia Dortmund",
        "slot": "secondary"
      },
      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.0963,
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          "market": "1x2",
          "model_prob": 0.7247,
          "not_dominant": false,
          "risk_band": "strong",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Borussia Dortmund",
          "slot": "secondary"
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      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Eintracht Frankfurt",
        "home": "Borussia Dortmund"
      },
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        "composite_score": 0.093397,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.2152,
        "implied_prob": 0.3459,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.434,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "no",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2
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  "fixture_id": 1388597,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-09T13:29:13.621682+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}