FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Statistics & Analysis

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      "away_win_prob": 0.212,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2528,
      "fair_odds_away": 4.72,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.96,
      "fair_odds_home": 1.87,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.87,
      "home_win_prob": 0.5352,
      "prediction_confidence": "high"
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : FC Augsburg or draw",
      "main_pick_display": "Winner : FC Augsburg",
      "percent_away": "10%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "45%",
      "winner_name": "FC Augsburg"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.12,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "FC Augsburg",
      "confidence": 53.5,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "medium",
        "display_text": "Winner : FC Augsburg",
        "edge": 0.047,
        "edge_gap": 0.2825,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.4883,
        "model_prob": 0.5352,
        "pick_type": "winner",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 21.2,
          "draw": 25.3,
          "home": 53.5
        },
        "reason": "",
        "selection": "home",
        "selection_name": "FC Augsburg"
      },
      "market_comparison": [
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          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 1.99
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      "risk_color": "#f44336",
      "risk_key": "high_risk",
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 1.99,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "FC Augsburg Win",
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 2.05,
        "market_odds": 1.99,
        "model_odds": 1.87,
        "overround": 2.9,
        "prob_edge": 3.2,
        "value_pct": 6.4,
        "value_rating": "small_value"
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    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 12,
        "away_failed_to_score": 12,
        "away_played": 32,
        "away_score_rate": 67.4,
        "home_clean_sheet": 5,
        "home_failed_to_score": 8,
        "home_played": 32,
        "home_score_rate": 84.6,
        "no_prob": 41.6,
        "pick": "No",
        "pick_prob": 58.4,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 58.4
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      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.12,
        "home_expected": 1.87,
        "scores": [
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            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 10.5
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 9.8
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          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 9.4
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          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-0",
            "prob": 8.8
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          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 3,
            "label": "3-1",
            "prob": 6.1
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
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      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
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            "key": "1X",
            "label": "FC Augsburg or Draw",
            "prob": 78.8
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          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "FC Augsburg or Borussia M\u00f6nchengladbach",
            "prob": 74.7
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          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Borussia M\u00f6nchengladbach",
            "prob": 46.5
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        "pick_key": "1X",
        "pick_label": "FC Augsburg or Draw",
        "pick_prob": 78.8
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 21.2,
        "draw_pct": 25.3,
        "home_pct": 53.5,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "FC Augsburg"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 2.99,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.2,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.3,
        "over_prob": 57.5,
        "pick": "Under 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 57.5,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 2.99,
        "under_prob": 42.5
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
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        "edge": 6.5,
        "implied_prob": 50.3,
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        "label": "Home",
        "market": "FC Augsburg Win",
        "model_prob": 53.5,
        "odds": 1.99
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    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
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      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
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    },
    "home_xg": 1.87,
    "homepage_pick": {
      "best_bookmaker": "1xBet",
      "best_odds": 2.38,
      "confidence": "moderate",
      "display_label": "Home FC Augsburg",
      "edge": 11.5,
      "ev": 27.3,
      "probability": 53.5
    },
    "market_cards": [
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        "decision": "value_bet",
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        "ev_over": -0.0973,
        "ev_under": 0.2283,
        "featured": true,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
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        "sort_key": 10355.47,
        "tier": "best",
        "under_prob": 42.5,
        "value_side": "under"
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      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": 0.1981,
        "ev_yes": -0.159,
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        "max_ev": 0.1981,
        "no_prob": 41.6,
        "sort_key": 10178.29,
        "tier": "best",
        "value_side": "no",
        "yes_prob": 58.4
      },
      {
        "decision": "small_edge",
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        "id": "1x2",
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        "side_label": "FC Augsburg",
        "sort_key": 5218.96,
        "tier": "lean"
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        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
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        "top_label": "1-1",
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    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 163,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/163.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Borussia M\u00f6nchengladbach",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/de.svg",
      "country_name": "Germany",
      "fixture_id": 1388596,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 170,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/170.webp",
      "home_team_name": "FC Augsburg",
      "league_country": "Germany",
      "league_id": 78,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/78.webp",
      "league_name": "Bundesliga",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-09 13:30:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
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          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
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        "score": 7.5
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        "1x2": {
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          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.2736,
            "best_odd": 3.59,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.016,
            "ev": -0.0859,
            "implied_prob": 0.2706,
            "model_prob": 0.212,
            "p_final": 0.2546
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.1965,
            "best_odd": 4.03,
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              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "edge": 0.0023,
            "ev": -0.0192,
            "implied_prob": 0.2411,
            "model_prob": 0.2527,
            "p_final": 0.2434
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          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.5577,
            "best_odd": 1.99,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "edge": 0.0262,
            "ev": 0.0237,
            "implied_prob": 0.4883,
            "model_prob": 0.5352,
            "p_final": 0.5144
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        "ou25": {
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          "implied_under": 0.3478,
          "n_bookmakers": 11,
          "reliability": "medium"
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      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.99,
      "variance_flag": false
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    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.0.0"
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      "confidence": 7.5,
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          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
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        "score": 7.5
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        "1x2_open_contest": false,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
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        "side": null
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      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "high_scoring",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.584,
          "draw_prob": 0.2527,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.5352,
          "over_prob": 0.575,
          "total_xg": 2.99,
          "under_prob": 0.425,
          "xg_diff": 0.75
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        "type": "high_scoring",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
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      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "small_edge",
          "edge": 0.0262,
          "ev": 0.0237,
          "implied_prob": 0.4883,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.5352,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "FC Augsburg"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0793,
          "ev": 0.1981,
          "implied_prob": 0.3367,
          "model_prob": 0.416,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0772,
          "ev": 0.2283,
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          "model_prob": 0.425,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
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      },
      "match_id": 1388596,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "optional",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": false,
        "code": "thin_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.2283,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 0.25,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
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      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.212,
        "draw": 0.2527,
        "home": 0.5352
      },
      "reason_codes": [
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      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1981,
        "implied_prob": 0.3367,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.416,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "no",
        "slot": "secondary"
      },
      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
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          "not_dominant": true,
          "risk_band": "medium",
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      ],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Borussia M\u00f6nchengladbach",
        "home": "FC Augsburg"
      },
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        "composite_score": 0.092176,
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        "model_prob": 0.425,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
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      "valid_markets_count": 3
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  "fixture_id": 1388596,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-09T13:29:09.707468+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}