Paris Saint Germain vs Stade Brestois 29 Statistics & Analysis

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      "away_win_prob": 0.0257,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.0923,
      "fair_odds_away": 38.96,
      "fair_odds_draw": 10.84,
      "fair_odds_home": 1.13,
      "home_predicted_xg": 3.22,
      "home_win_prob": 0.8821,
      "prediction_confidence": "high"
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Combo Winner : Paris Saint Germain and +1.5 goals",
      "main_pick_display": "Winner : Paris Saint Germain",
      "percent_away": "0%",
      "percent_draw": "50%",
      "percent_home": "50%",
      "winner_name": "Paris Saint Germain"
    },
    "away_xg": 0.5,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Paris Saint Germain",
      "confidence": 88.2,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "medium",
        "display_text": "Winner : Paris Saint Germain",
        "edge": 0.0629,
        "edge_gap": 0.7904,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.8195,
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        "pick_type": "winner",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 2.6,
          "draw": 9.2,
          "home": 88.2
        },
        "reason": "",
        "selection": "home",
        "selection_name": "Paris Saint Germain"
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          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 1.15
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      "risk_color": "#4caf50",
      "risk_key": "low_risk",
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
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        "bookmaker_id": 0,
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        "display_market": "Paris Saint Germain Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 1.22,
        "market_odds": 1.15,
        "model_odds": 1.13,
        "overround": 6.1,
        "prob_edge": 1.5,
        "value_pct": 1.8,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
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    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 9,
        "away_failed_to_score": 10,
        "away_played": 31,
        "away_score_rate": 39.3,
        "home_clean_sheet": 16,
        "home_failed_to_score": 2,
        "home_played": 31,
        "home_score_rate": 96.0,
        "no_prob": 61.7,
        "pick": "No",
        "pick_prob": 61.7,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 38.3
      },
      "correct_score": {
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        "home_expected": 3.22,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 3,
            "label": "3-0",
            "prob": 13.5
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-0",
            "prob": 12.6
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          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 4,
            "label": "4-0",
            "prob": 10.9
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            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
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            "prob": 7.8
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          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 5,
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        ],
        "source": "xG"
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      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
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            "label": "Paris Saint Germain or Draw",
            "prob": 97.4
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Paris Saint Germain or Stade Brestois 29",
            "prob": 90.8
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          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Stade Brestois 29",
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          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "1X",
        "pick_label": "Paris Saint Germain or Draw",
        "pick_prob": 97.4
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 2.6,
        "draw_pct": 9.2,
        "home_pct": 88.2,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "Paris Saint Germain"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": "+1.5",
        "avg_total": 3.72,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.3,
        "confidence": "high",
        "home_avg_scored": 2.3,
        "over_prob": 71.8,
        "pick": "Over 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 71.8,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "total_expected": 3.72,
        "under_prob": 28.2
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
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        "edge": 1.8,
        "implied_prob": 87.0,
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        "label": "Home",
        "market": "Paris Saint Germain Win",
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        "odds": 1.15
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    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
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      "most_likely": {
        "label": "3-0",
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    },
    "home_xg": 3.22,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
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        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": 0.1785,
        "ev_yes": -0.2532,
        "featured": true,
        "id": "btts",
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        "no_prob": 61.7,
        "sort_key": 10310.65,
        "tier": "best",
        "value_side": "no",
        "yes_prob": 38.3
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        "ev_under": -0.0412,
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        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": -0.0163,
        "over_prob": 71.8,
        "sort_key": 1795.925,
        "tier": "bad_ev",
        "under_prob": 28.2,
        "value_side": "over"
      },
      {
        "decision": "no_bet",
        "ev": -0.0183,
        "ev_available": true,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.8195,
        "max_ev": -0.0183,
        "model_prob": 0.8824,
        "side_label": "Paris Saint Germain",
        "sort_key": 1795.425,
        "tier": "bad_ev"
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      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
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        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "3-0",
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    ],
    "match": {
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      "away_team_id": 106,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/106.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Stade Brestois 29",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/fr.svg",
      "country_name": "France",
      "fixture_id": 1387992,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 85,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/85.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Paris Saint Germain",
      "league_country": "France",
      "league_id": 61,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/61.webp",
      "league_name": "Ligue 1",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-09 19:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
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          "Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
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        ],
        "score": 9.0
      },
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            "best_odd": 14.02,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "edge": -0.0078,
            "ev": -0.167,
            "implied_prob": 0.0672,
            "model_prob": 0.0256,
            "p_final": 0.0594
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          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.1936,
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              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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          "reliability": "medium"
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      "confidence": 7.0,
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        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
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        "1x2_open_contest": false,
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          "draw_prob": 0.092,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.8824,
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          "total_xg": 3.72,
          "under_prob": 0.282,
          "xg_diff": 2.72
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      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
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          "max_ev_side": "home",
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          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Paris Saint Germain"
        },
        "btts": {
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          "model_prob": 0.617,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
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          "edge": 0.0165,
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          "implied_prob": 0.7015,
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          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
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        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.1785,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.0256,
        "draw": 0.092,
        "home": 0.8824
      },
      "reason_codes": [
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        "high_total_goals"
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      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Stade Brestois 29",
        "home": "Paris Saint Germain"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.110134,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1785,
        "implied_prob": 0.5097,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.617,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "no",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 1
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  },
  "fixture_id": 1387992,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-09T18:59:15.654289+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}