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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Más / Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Lens Lens ✔ Correct
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 2-0 1-0 ✖ Incorrect
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "dc8b7fa5e7622a48cf610b763007a029f9f1dedda13aa9eb64214e16701d6546",
"decision_algo_version": "2.0.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 0.96,
"away_win_prob": 0.1417,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2164,
"fair_odds_away": 7.05,
"fair_odds_draw": 4.62,
"fair_odds_home": 1.56,
"home_predicted_xg": 2.19,
"home_win_prob": 0.6419,
"prediction_confidence": "high"
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Winner : Lens",
"main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Lens"
},
"away_xg": 0.96,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Lens",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"edge": -0.0168,
"edge_gap": 0.4249,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.6583,
"model_prob": 0.6415,
"pick_type": "no_value",
"probabilities": {
"away": 14.2,
"draw": 21.7,
"home": 64.1
},
"reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.47
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.47,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Lens Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 1.52,
"market_odds": 1.47,
"model_odds": 1.56,
"overround": 3.3,
"prob_edge": -3.9,
"value_pct": -5.8,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 7,
"away_failed_to_score": 13,
"away_played": 32,
"away_score_rate": 61.7,
"home_clean_sheet": 10,
"home_failed_to_score": 5,
"home_played": 31,
"home_score_rate": 88.8,
"no_prob": 44.0,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 56.0,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 56.0
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 0.96,
"home_expected": 2.19,
"scores": [
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 10.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 3,
"label": "3-0",
"prob": 7.5
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Lens or Draw",
"prob": 85.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Lens or Nantes",
"prob": 78.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Nantes",
"prob": 35.8
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Lens or Draw",
"pick_prob": 85.8
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 14.2,
"draw_pct": 21.6,
"home_pct": 64.2,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Lens"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.15,
"away_avg_scored": 0.9,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 2.0,
"over_prob": 61.0,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 61.0,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 3.15,
"under_prob": 39.0
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 7.4,
"implied_prob": 20.1,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 21.6,
"odds": 4.97
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 10.3
}
},
"home_xg": 2.19,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0545,
"ev_under": 0.0218,
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0218,
"over_prob": 61.0,
"sort_key": 5217.44,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 39.0,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev": -0.0468,
"ev_available": true,
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.6583,
"max_ev": -0.0113,
"model_prob": 0.6415,
"side_label": "Lens",
"sort_key": 1797.175,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.054,
"ev_yes": -0.048,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.048,
"no_prob": 44.0,
"sort_key": 1788.0,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 56.0
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 810.9,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "2-0",
"top_prob": 10.3
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 83,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/83.webp",
"away_team_name": "Nantes",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/fr.svg",
"country_name": "France",
"fixture_id": 1387989,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 116,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/116.webp",
"home_team_name": "Lens",
"league_country": "France",
"league_id": 61,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/61.webp",
"league_name": "Ligue 1",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-09 19:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 9.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1985,
"best_odd": 6.58,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.001,
"ev": -0.0391,
"implied_prob": 0.1471,
"model_prob": 0.1419,
"p_final": 0.146
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1934,
"best_odd": 4.97,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0042,
"ev": -0.0113,
"implied_prob": 0.1947,
"model_prob": 0.2166,
"p_final": 0.1989
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5849,
"best_odd": 1.47,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0098,
"ev": -0.0468,
"implied_prob": 0.6583,
"model_prob": 0.6415,
"p_final": 0.6484
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.15,
"best_yes_odd": 1.7,
"edge_no": -0.0005,
"edge_yes": 0.0005,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.054,
"ev_yes": -0.048,
"implied_no": 0.4405,
"implied_yes": 0.5595,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.55,
"best_under_odd": 2.62,
"edge_over": -0.0121,
"edge_under": 0.0121,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0545,
"ev_under": 0.0218,
"implied_over": 0.6221,
"implied_under": 0.3779,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.15,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.0.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0218,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [],
"breakdown_resolved": [],
"score": 5.0
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.56,
"draw_prob": 0.2166,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.6415,
"over_prob": 0.61,
"total_xg": 3.15,
"under_prob": 0.39,
"xg_diff": 1.23
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev": 0.0218,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.3779,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.39,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "under",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0098,
"ev": -0.0468,
"implied_prob": 0.6583,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.6415,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Lens"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": 0.0005,
"ev": -0.048,
"implied_prob": 0.5595,
"model_prob": 0.56,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0121,
"ev": 0.0218,
"implied_prob": 0.3779,
"model_prob": 0.39,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1387989,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0218,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.1419,
"draw": 0.2166,
"home": 0.6415
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Nantes",
"home": "Lens"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1
}
},
"fixture_id": 1387989,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-09T18:59:11.980464+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
- Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
- No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
- Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.
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Ligue 1 — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 33 | 24 | 4 | 5 | 76 |
| 2 | Lens | 33 | 21 | 4 | 8 | 67 |
| 3 | Lille | 33 | 18 | 7 | 8 | 61 |
| 4 | Lyon | 33 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 60 |
| 5 | Rennes | 33 | 17 | 8 | 8 | 59 |
| 6 | Marseille | 33 | 17 | 5 | 11 | 56 |
| 7 | Monaco | 33 | 16 | 6 | 11 | 54 |
| 8 | Strasbourg | 33 | 14 | 8 | 11 | 50 |
| 9 | Lorient | 33 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 45 |
| 10 | Toulouse | 33 | 12 | 8 | 13 | 44 |
| 11 | Paris FC | 33 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 41 |
| 12 | Stade Brestois 29 | 33 | 10 | 8 | 15 | 38 |
| 13 | Angers | 33 | 9 | 8 | 16 | 35 |
| 14 | Le Havre | 33 | 6 | 14 | 13 | 32 |
| 15 | Auxerre | 33 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 31 |
| 16 | Nice | 33 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 31 |
| 17 | Nantes | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 23 |
| 18 | Metz | 33 | 3 | 7 | 23 | 16 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 33 | 73 | 27 | +46 | 76 |
| 2 | Lens | 33 | 62 | 35 | +27 | 67 |
| 3 | Marseille | 33 | 60 | 44 | +16 | 56 |
| 4 | Rennes | 33 | 58 | 47 | +11 | 59 |
| 5 | Monaco | 33 | 56 | 49 | +7 | 54 |
| 6 | Lyon | 33 | 53 | 36 | +17 | 60 |
| 7 | Strasbourg | 33 | 53 | 43 | +10 | 50 |
| 8 | Lille | 33 | 52 | 35 | +17 | 61 |
| 9 | Lorient | 33 | 48 | 49 | -1 | 45 |
| 10 | Toulouse | 33 | 47 | 46 | +1 | 44 |
| 11 | Paris FC | 33 | 45 | 49 | -4 | 41 |
| 12 | Stade Brestois 29 | 33 | 42 | 54 | -12 | 38 |
| 13 | Nice | 33 | 37 | 60 | -23 | 31 |
| 14 | Auxerre | 33 | 32 | 44 | -12 | 31 |
| 15 | Metz | 33 | 32 | 76 | -44 | 16 |
| 16 | Le Havre | 33 | 30 | 44 | -14 | 32 |
| 17 | Nantes | 33 | 29 | 52 | -23 | 23 |
| 18 | Angers | 33 | 28 | 47 | -19 | 35 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 33 | 63.1 | 25.3 | +37.8 | 76 |
| 2 | Lens | 33 | 65.3 | 40.7 | +24.6 | 67 |
| 3 | Marseille | 33 | 57.2 | 39.5 | +17.7 | 56 |
| 4 | Lille | 33 | 52.8 | 36.3 | +16.5 | 61 |
| 5 | Strasbourg | 33 | 49.8 | 42.6 | +7.2 | 50 |
| 6 | Monaco | 33 | 55.6 | 48.5 | +7.1 | 54 |
| 7 | Lyon | 33 | 49.1 | 42.3 | +6.8 | 60 |
| 8 | Rennes | 33 | 51.5 | 49.8 | +1.7 | 59 |
| 9 | Lorient | 33 | 44.0 | 43.6 | +0.4 | 45 |
| 10 | Toulouse | 33 | 42.9 | 42.6 | +0.3 | 44 |
| 11 | Stade Brestois 29 | 33 | 43.1 | 49.2 | -6.1 | 38 |
| 12 | Nantes | 33 | 33.4 | 43.5 | -10.1 | 23 |
| 13 | Auxerre | 33 | 35.1 | 46.2 | -11.1 | 31 |
| 14 | Le Havre | 33 | 36.9 | 49.5 | -12.6 | 32 |
| 15 | Paris FC | 33 | 42.3 | 55.4 | -13.1 | 41 |
| 16 | Nice | 33 | 41.6 | 58.5 | -16.9 | 31 |
| 17 | Angers | 33 | 31.6 | 54.3 | -22.7 | 35 |
| 18 | Metz | 33 | 33.7 | 61.2 | -27.5 | 16 |
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