Strasbourg vs Toulouse Statistics & Analysis

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  "decision_algo_version": "2.0.0",
  "facts": {
    "ai_fp": {
      "away_predicted_xg": 1.09,
      "away_win_prob": 0.2173,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2617,
      "fair_odds_away": 4.6,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.82,
      "fair_odds_home": 1.92,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.78,
      "home_win_prob": 0.521,
      "prediction_confidence": "high"
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : Strasbourg or draw",
      "main_pick_display": "Winner : Strasbourg",
      "percent_away": "0%",
      "percent_draw": "50%",
      "percent_home": "50%",
      "winner_name": "Strasbourg"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.09,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Strasbourg",
      "confidence": 52.1,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "medium",
        "display_text": "Winner : Strasbourg",
        "edge": 0.1875,
        "edge_gap": 0.2591,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.3333,
        "model_prob": 0.5208,
        "pick_type": "winner",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 21.7,
          "draw": 26.2,
          "home": 52.1
        },
        "reason": "",
        "selection": "home",
        "selection_name": "Strasbourg"
      },
      "market_comparison": [
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          "bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
          "odd": 2.97
        },
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
          "odd": 2.92
        },
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 2.92
        },
        {
          "affi_link": "https://banners.dfbanners.com/redirect.aspx?pid=79572\u0026bid=19634\u0026redirectURL=http://www.dafabet.com/",
          "bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
          "odd": 2.9
        },
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
          "odd": 2.88
        },
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Betano",
          "odd": 2.85
        },
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
          "odd": 2.8
        },
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
          "odd": 2.8
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": "#f44336",
      "risk_key": "high_risk",
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 2.97,
        "bookmaker_affi": "https://refpa14435.com/L?tag=d_4682699m_1599c_\u0026site=4682699\u0026ad=1599",
        "bookmaker_id": 11,
        "bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
        "display_market": "Strasbourg Win",
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 3.0,
        "market_odds": 2.84,
        "model_odds": 1.92,
        "overround": 5.7,
        "prob_edge": 18.4,
        "value_pct": 54.7,
        "value_rating": "strong_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 9,
        "away_failed_to_score": 10,
        "away_played": 31,
        "away_score_rate": 66.4,
        "home_clean_sheet": 9,
        "home_failed_to_score": 6,
        "home_played": 30,
        "home_score_rate": 83.1,
        "no_prob": 43.4,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 56.6,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "yes_prob": 56.6
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.09,
        "home_expected": 1.78,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 11.0
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 10.1
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 9.8
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-0",
            "prob": 9.0
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            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-1",
            "prob": 6.2
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Strasbourg or Draw",
            "prob": 78.3
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Strasbourg or Toulouse",
            "prob": 73.8
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Toulouse",
            "prob": 47.9
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "1X",
        "pick_label": "Strasbourg or Draw",
        "pick_prob": 78.3
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 21.7,
        "draw_pct": 26.2,
        "home_pct": 52.1,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "Strasbourg"
      },
      "over_under": {
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        "avg_total": 2.87,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.4,
        "confidence": "low",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.6,
        "over_prob": 54.7,
        "pick": "Over 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 54.7,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 2.87,
        "under_prob": 45.3
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 11,
        "bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
        "edge": 54.7,
        "implied_prob": 33.7,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Home",
        "market": "Strasbourg Win",
        "model_prob": 52.1,
        "odds": 2.97
      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": {
        "best_bookmaker": "Betano",
        "best_odds": 16.0,
        "edge": 2.7,
        "ev": 43.7,
        "label": "2-0",
        "probability": 9.0
      },
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
        "prob": 11.0
      }
    },
    "home_xg": 1.78,
    "homepage_pick": {
      "best_bookmaker": "1xBet",
      "best_odds": 2.57,
      "confidence": "moderate",
      "display_label": "Home Strasbourg",
      "edge": 13.2,
      "ev": 54.8,
      "probability": 52.1
    },
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1115,
        "ev_available": true,
        "featured": true,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.3371,
        "max_ev": 0.1115,
        "model_prob": 0.5208,
        "side_label": "Strasbourg",
        "sort_key": 10250.35,
        "tier": "best"
      },
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": 0.0229,
        "ev_under": -0.0578,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": 0.0229,
        "over_prob": 54.7,
        "sort_key": 10020.61,
        "tier": "best",
        "under_prob": 45.3,
        "value_side": "over"
      },
      {
        "decision": "lean",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": -0.0452,
        "ev_yes": -0.0548,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": -0.0452,
        "no_prob": 43.4,
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        "tier": "bad_ev",
        "value_side": "no",
        "yes_prob": 56.6
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        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 813.0,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "1-1",
        "top_prob": 11.0
      }
    ],
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 96,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/96.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Toulouse",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/fr.svg",
      "country_name": "France",
      "fixture_id": 1387985,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 95,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/95.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Strasbourg",
      "league_country": "France",
      "league_id": 61,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/61.webp",
      "league_name": "Ligue 1",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-03 15:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
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        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 7.5
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
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            "best_odd": 2.4,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "edge": -0.0583,
            "ev": -0.196,
            "implied_prob": 0.3933,
            "model_prob": 0.2174,
            "p_final": 0.335
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          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2965,
            "best_odd": 3.5,
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              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "edge": -0.0023,
            "ev": -0.0644,
            "implied_prob": 0.2697,
            "model_prob": 0.2618,
            "p_final": 0.2673
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          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.326,
            "best_odd": 2.8,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0599,
            "ev": 0.1115,
            "implied_prob": 0.3371,
            "model_prob": 0.5208,
            "p_final": 0.397
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        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 2.2,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.67,
          "edge_no": 0.0066,
          "edge_yes": -0.0066,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.0452,
          "ev_yes": -0.0548,
          "implied_no": 0.4274,
          "implied_yes": 0.5726,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
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          "best_under_odd": 2.08,
          "edge_over": 0.0213,
          "edge_under": -0.0213,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": 0.0229,
          "ev_under": -0.0578,
          "implied_over": 0.5257,
          "implied_under": 0.4743,
          "n_bookmakers": 11,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.87,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
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      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.0.0"
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      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.1115,
      "confidence": 7.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 7.5
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": true,
        "1x2_open_contest": false,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "high_scoring",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.566,
          "draw_prob": 0.2618,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.5208,
          "over_prob": 0.547,
          "total_xg": 2.87,
          "under_prob": 0.453,
          "xg_diff": 0.69
        },
        "type": "high_scoring",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0599,
          "ev": 0.1115,
          "implied_prob": 0.3371,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.5208,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Strasbourg"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "lean",
          "edge": 0.0066,
          "ev": -0.0452,
          "implied_prob": 0.4274,
          "model_prob": 0.434,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0213,
          "ev": 0.0229,
          "implied_prob": 0.5257,
          "model_prob": 0.547,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
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      },
      "match_id": 1387985,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.1115,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.2174,
        "draw": 0.2618,
        "home": 0.5208
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "high_total_goals"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Toulouse",
        "home": "Strasbourg"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.046455,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1115,
        "implied_prob": 0.3371,
        "market": "1x2",
        "model_prob": 0.5208,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "home",
        "side_label": "Strasbourg",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2
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  "fixture_id": 1387985,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-03T10:06:49.891956+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}