Estadísticas / Fútbol / Inglaterra. League Two / Cheltenham Town vs Colchester United

Cheltenham Town vs Colchester United Statistics & Analysis

Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town
May 02, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.29
4 1.47
xG Accuracy: 46%
Colchester United Colchester United
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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo

Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.

  • Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
  • Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (5 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
  • Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
  • 1X2 Colchester United Colchester United ✔ Correcto
  • Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 2-1 1-4 ✖ Incorrecto

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 10, 2026 · 07:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3513370

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Colchester United win · Cheltenham Town 1–4 Colchester United
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Informe IA del partido

Resumen del partido IA

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: League Two
  • Fixture: Cheltenham Town vs Colchester United
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-02 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.6% · Draw 28.5% · Away 39.9%
  • xG (showing): Cheltenham Town 1.29 — Colchester United 1.47 (total xG ≈ 2.76)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.6%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 47.9% · Over 52.1%); BTTS Yes (Yes 57.4% · No 42.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 57.4% · No 42.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.0%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Recomendación histórica

Decisión histórica: No Primary Bet

Resultado: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Factores de riesgo considerados antes del inicio

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Última actualización

May 01, 2026 (UTC)

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League Two League Two — Clasificación
# EQUIPO PJ G E P Pts
1 Bromley 46 24 15 7 87
2 Milton Keynes Dons 46 24 14 8 86
3 Cambridge United 46 22 16 8 82
4 Salford City 46 25 6 15 81
5 Notts County 46 24 8 14 80
6 Chesterfield 46 21 16 9 79
7 Grimsby Town 46 22 12 12 78
8 Barnet 46 21 13 12 76
9 Swindon Town 46 22 9 15 75
10 Oldham 46 18 14 14 68
11 Crewe Alexandra 46 19 10 17 67
12 Colchester United 46 18 12 16 66
13 Walsall 46 18 11 17 65
14 Bristol Rovers 46 19 5 22 62
15 Fleetwood Town 46 15 16 15 61
16 Accrington Stanley 46 14 11 21 53
17 Gillingham 46 13 14 19 53
18 Cheltenham Town 46 14 10 22 52
19 Shrewsbury Town 46 13 10 23 49
20 Newport County 46 12 7 27 43
21 Tranmere Rovers 46 10 11 25 41
22 Crawley Town 46 8 16 22 40
23 Harrogate Town 46 10 9 27 39
24 Barrow 46 9 9 28 36
# EQUIPO PJ GF GC +/- Pts
1 Milton Keynes Dons 46 86 45 +41 86
2 Grimsby Town 46 74 50 +24 78
3 Notts County 46 74 52 +22 80
4 Bromley 46 71 46 +25 87
5 Chesterfield 46 71 56 +15 79
6 Barnet 46 70 53 +17 76
7 Swindon Town 46 70 59 +11 75
8 Cambridge United 46 66 33 +33 82
9 Crewe Alexandra 46 64 58 +6 67
10 Colchester United 46 62 49 +13 66
11 Salford City 46 61 51 +10 81
12 Oldham 46 60 44 +16 68
13 Fleetwood Town 46 57 58 -1 61
14 Walsall 46 56 56 0 65
15 Bristol Rovers 46 56 65 -9 62
16 Tranmere Rovers 46 54 79 -25 41
17 Gillingham 46 53 72 -19 53
18 Cheltenham Town 46 53 79 -26 52
19 Newport County 46 48 77 -29 43
20 Accrington Stanley 46 47 58 -11 53
21 Barrow 46 45 78 -33 36
22 Crawley Town 46 44 68 -24 40
23 Shrewsbury Town 46 42 69 -27 49
24 Harrogate Town 46 39 68 -29 39
# EQUIPO PJ xG xGC +/- Pts
1 Barnet 46 19.8 12.4 +7.4 76
2 Salford City 46 21.4 14.7 +6.7 81
3 Milton Keynes Dons 46 17.6 11.5 +6.1 86
4 Notts County 46 16.0 10.7 +5.3 80
5 Cambridge United 46 18.3 13.1 +5.2 82
6 Grimsby Town 46 18.6 14.2 +4.4 78
7 Colchester United 46 17.5 14.6 +2.9 66
8 Walsall 46 20.9 18.1 +2.8 65
9 Bromley 46 23.2 21.3 +1.9 87
10 Oldham 46 18.0 16.4 +1.6 68
11 Accrington Stanley 46 14.1 12.8 +1.3 53
12 Crawley Town 46 17.4 17.3 +0.1 40
13 Gillingham 46 21.6 21.6 0.0 53
14 Swindon Town 46 19.9 19.9 0.0 75
15 Bristol Rovers 46 17.1 17.1 0.0 62
16 Chesterfield 46 19.1 20.1 -1.0 79
17 Crewe Alexandra 46 19.8 20.9 -1.1 67
18 Fleetwood Town 46 14.9 16.6 -1.7 61
19 Shrewsbury Town 46 10.4 14.0 -3.6 49
20 Cheltenham Town 46 12.9 16.8 -3.9 52
21 Tranmere Rovers 46 15.3 19.4 -4.1 41
22 Barrow 46 16.7 22.2 -5.5 36
23 Newport County 46 12.6 22.8 -10.2 43
24 Harrogate Town 46 11.5 26.0 -14.5 39
League Two Inglaterra. League Two Predicciones