HNK Rijeka vs Vukovar Statistics & Analysis

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  "decision_algo_version": "2.0.0",
  "facts": {
    "ai_fp": {
      "away_predicted_xg": 0.85,
      "away_win_prob": 0.1317,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2244,
      "fair_odds_away": 7.59,
      "fair_odds_draw": 4.46,
      "fair_odds_home": 1.55,
      "home_predicted_xg": 2.07,
      "home_win_prob": 0.6439,
      "prediction_confidence": "high"
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : HNK Rijeka or draw",
      "main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
      "percent_away": "10%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "45%",
      "winner_name": "HNK Rijeka"
    },
    "away_xg": 0.85,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "HNK Rijeka",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
        "edge": -0.0924,
        "edge_gap": 0.4205,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.7369,
        "model_prob": 0.6444,
        "pick_type": "no_value",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 13.2,
          "draw": 22.4,
          "home": 64.4
        },
        "reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 1.28
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 1.28,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "HNK Rijeka Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 1.36,
        "market_odds": 1.28,
        "model_odds": 1.55,
        "overround": 6.0,
        "prob_edge": -13.6,
        "value_pct": -17.4,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 4,
        "away_failed_to_score": 9,
        "away_played": 33,
        "away_score_rate": 57.3,
        "home_clean_sheet": 11,
        "home_failed_to_score": 12,
        "home_played": 33,
        "home_score_rate": 87.4,
        "no_prob": 48.7,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 51.3,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "yes_prob": 51.3
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 0.85,
        "home_expected": 2.07,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-0",
            "prob": 11.6
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 11.2
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 9.8
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 9.5
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 3,
            "label": "3-0",
            "prob": 8.0
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "HNK Rijeka or Draw",
            "prob": 86.8
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "HNK Rijeka or Vukovar",
            "prob": 77.6
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Vukovar",
            "prob": 35.6
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "1X",
        "pick_label": "HNK Rijeka or Draw",
        "pick_prob": 86.8
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 13.2,
        "draw_pct": 22.4,
        "home_pct": 64.4,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "HNK Rijeka"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 2.92,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.0,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.3,
        "over_prob": 55.9,
        "pick": "Under 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 55.9,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 2.92,
        "under_prob": 44.1
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": 33.2,
        "implied_prob": 9.9,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Away",
        "market": "Vukovar Win",
        "model_prob": 13.2,
        "odds": 10.09
      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "2-0",
        "prob": 11.6
      }
    },
    "home_xg": 2.07,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": -0.1056,
        "ev_under": 0.0452,
        "featured": true,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": 0.0452,
        "over_prob": 55.9,
        "sort_key": 10040.68,
        "tier": "best",
        "under_prob": 44.1,
        "value_side": "under"
      },
      {
        "decision": "no_bet",
        "ev": -0.1179,
        "ev_available": true,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.7369,
        "max_ev": 0.0157,
        "model_prob": 0.6444,
        "side_label": "HNK Rijeka",
        "sort_key": 5212.56,
        "tier": "lean"
      },
      {
        "decision": "lean",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": -0.0942,
        "ev_yes": -0.0202,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": -0.0202,
        "no_prob": 48.7,
        "sort_key": 1794.95,
        "tier": "bad_ev",
        "value_side": "yes",
        "yes_prob": 51.3
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 814.8,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "2-0",
        "top_prob": 11.6
      }
    ],
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 5730,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/5730.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Vukovar",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/hr.svg",
      "country_name": "Croatia",
      "fixture_id": 1384086,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 561,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/561.webp",
      "home_team_name": "HNK Rijeka",
      "league_country": "Croatia",
      "league_id": 210,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/210.webp",
      "league_name": "HNL",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-09 15:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 9.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.1886,
            "best_odd": 10.09,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0072,
            "ev": 0.0157,
            "implied_prob": 0.0935,
            "model_prob": 0.1316,
            "p_final": 0.1007
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.1837,
            "best_odd": 5.56,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.01,
            "ev": -0.0013,
            "implied_prob": 0.1696,
            "model_prob": 0.224,
            "p_final": 0.1796
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          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.5168,
            "best_odd": 1.28,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0478,
            "ev": -0.1179,
            "implied_prob": 0.7369,
            "model_prob": 0.6444,
            "p_final": 0.6891
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 1.86,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.91,
          "edge_no": -0.0159,
          "edge_yes": 0.0159,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.0942,
          "ev_yes": -0.0202,
          "implied_no": 0.5029,
          "implied_yes": 0.4971,
          "n_bookmakers": 9,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
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          "best_under_odd": 2.37,
          "edge_over": -0.0395,
          "edge_under": 0.0395,
          "ev_available": true,
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          "ev_under": 0.0452,
          "implied_over": 0.5985,
          "implied_under": 0.4015,
          "n_bookmakers": 9,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.92,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.0.0"
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      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.0452,
      "confidence": 5.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [],
        "breakdown_resolved": [],
        "score": 5.0
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": true,
        "1x2_open_contest": false,
        "grade": "C",
        "stake_factor": 0.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "strong_signal",
        "signals": {
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          "draw_prob": 0.224,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.6444,
          "over_prob": 0.559,
          "total_xg": 2.92,
          "under_prob": 0.441,
          "xg_diff": 1.22
        },
        "type": "strong_signal",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.0452,
        "hero_display_only": true,
        "implied_prob": 0.4015,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.441,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "hero_display",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "hero_display"
      },
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": -0.0478,
          "ev": -0.1179,
          "implied_prob": 0.7369,
          "max_ev_side": "away",
          "model_prob": 0.6444,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "HNK Rijeka"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "lean",
          "edge": 0.0159,
          "ev": -0.0202,
          "implied_prob": 0.4971,
          "model_prob": 0.513,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0395,
          "ev": 0.0452,
          "implied_prob": 0.4015,
          "model_prob": 0.441,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1384086,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "optional",
        "actionable": false,
        "clear_edge": false,
        "code": "thin_edge",
        "execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
        "insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
        "max_valid_ev": 0.0452,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 0.25,
        "use_split_strip": true
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.1316,
        "draw": 0.224,
        "home": 0.6444
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2",
        "high_total_goals"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Vukovar",
        "home": "HNK Rijeka"
      },
      "top_pick": null,
      "valid_markets_count": 1
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1384086,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-09T14:56:01.252906+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}