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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Más / Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Wisla Plock Motor Lublin ✖ Incorrect
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1 0-4 ✖ Incorrect
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "c679ca5bf6c533a7acdb5e6b4f80fac55a6013d928ac736bf8f78e1b814c17e0",
"decision_algo_version": "2.0.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.13,
"away_win_prob": 0.2568,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.281,
"fair_odds_away": 3.89,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.56,
"fair_odds_home": 2.16,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.58,
"home_win_prob": 0.4622,
"prediction_confidence": "high"
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Wisla Plock or draw",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Wisla Plock",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Wisla Plock"
},
"away_xg": 1.13,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Wisla Plock",
"confidence": 46.2,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "Winner : Wisla Plock",
"edge": 0.032,
"edge_gap": 0.1819,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4306,
"model_prob": 0.4625,
"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 25.7,
"draw": 28.1,
"home": 46.3
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "home",
"selection_name": "Wisla Plock"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.2
}
],
"risk_color": "#f44336",
"risk_key": "high_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.2,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Wisla Plock Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.32,
"market_odds": 2.2,
"model_odds": 2.16,
"overround": 5.6,
"prob_edge": 0.8,
"value_pct": 1.9,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 7,
"away_failed_to_score": 7,
"away_played": 31,
"away_score_rate": 67.7,
"home_clean_sheet": 7,
"home_failed_to_score": 11,
"home_played": 31,
"home_score_rate": 79.4,
"no_prob": 44.7,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 55.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 55.3
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.13,
"home_expected": 1.58,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 11.9
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 7.5
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Wisla Plock or Draw",
"prob": 74.3
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Wisla Plock or Motor Lublin",
"prob": 71.9
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Motor Lublin",
"prob": 53.8
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Wisla Plock or Draw",
"pick_prob": 74.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 25.7,
"draw_pct": 28.1,
"home_pct": 46.2,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Wisla Plock"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.71,
"away_avg_scored": 1.3,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.0,
"over_prob": 50.9,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 50.9,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.71,
"under_prob": 49.1
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 1.9,
"implied_prob": 45.5,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Wisla Plock Win",
"model_prob": 46.3,
"odds": 2.2
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 11.9
}
},
"home_xg": 1.58,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0838,
"ev_under": 0.0213,
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0213,
"over_prob": 50.9,
"sort_key": 5217.04,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 49.1,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0057,
"ev_yes": -0.0876,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0057,
"no_prob": 44.7,
"sort_key": 5204.56,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 55.3
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev": -0.0226,
"ev_available": true,
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4306,
"max_ev": -0.0226,
"model_prob": 0.4625,
"side_label": "Wisla Plock",
"sort_key": 1794.35,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 815.7,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 11.9
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 14562,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/14562.webp",
"away_team_name": "Motor Lublin",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/pl.svg",
"country_name": "Poland",
"fixture_id": 1380671,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 341,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/341.webp",
"home_team_name": "Wisla Plock",
"league_country": "Poland",
"league_id": 106,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/106.webp",
"league_name": "Ekstraklasa",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-09 16:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2794,
"best_odd": 3.13,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0128,
"ev": -0.0928,
"implied_prob": 0.3026,
"model_prob": 0.2568,
"p_final": 0.2898
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2938,
"best_odd": 3.55,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0041,
"ev": -0.0384,
"implied_prob": 0.2668,
"model_prob": 0.2806,
"p_final": 0.2709
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4284,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0137,
"ev": -0.0226,
"implied_prob": 0.4306,
"model_prob": 0.4625,
"p_final": 0.4443
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.25,
"best_yes_odd": 1.65,
"edge_no": 0.0257,
"edge_yes": -0.0257,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0057,
"ev_yes": -0.0876,
"implied_no": 0.4213,
"implied_yes": 0.5787,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.8,
"best_under_odd": 2.08,
"edge_over": -0.0274,
"edge_under": 0.0274,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0838,
"ev_under": 0.0213,
"implied_over": 0.5364,
"implied_under": 0.4636,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.71,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.0.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0213,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"score": 4.0
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.553,
"draw_prob": 0.2806,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4625,
"over_prob": 0.509,
"total_xg": 2.71,
"under_prob": 0.491,
"xg_diff": 0.45
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev": 0.0213,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4636,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.491,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "under",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0137,
"ev": -0.0226,
"implied_prob": 0.4306,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4625,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Wisla Plock"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0257,
"ev": 0.0057,
"implied_prob": 0.4213,
"model_prob": 0.447,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0274,
"ev": 0.0213,
"implied_prob": 0.4636,
"model_prob": 0.491,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1380671,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0213,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2568,
"draw": 0.2806,
"home": 0.4625
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Motor Lublin",
"home": "Wisla Plock"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1
}
},
"fixture_id": 1380671,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-09T16:00:55.006429+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
- Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
- No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
- Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.
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Ekstraklasa — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lech Poznan | 33 | 16 | 11 | 6 | 59 |
| 2 | Gornik Zabrze | 33 | 15 | 8 | 10 | 53 |
| 3 | Jagiellonia | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 52 |
| 4 | Raków Częstochowa | 32 | 14 | 7 | 11 | 49 |
| 5 | Zaglebie Lubin | 33 | 13 | 9 | 11 | 48 |
| 6 | GKS Katowice | 32 | 14 | 6 | 12 | 48 |
| 7 | Wisla Plock | 33 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 45 |
| 8 | Radomiak Radom | 33 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 44 |
| 9 | Pogon Szczecin | 33 | 13 | 5 | 15 | 44 |
| 10 | Legia Warszawa | 32 | 10 | 13 | 9 | 43 |
| 11 | Motor Lublin | 33 | 10 | 13 | 10 | 43 |
| 12 | Korona Kielce | 33 | 11 | 9 | 13 | 42 |
| 13 | Piast Gliwice | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 41 |
| 14 | Cracovia Krakow | 33 | 9 | 14 | 10 | 41 |
| 15 | Widzew Łódź | 33 | 11 | 6 | 16 | 39 |
| 16 | Lechia Gdansk | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | 38 |
| 17 | Arka Gdynia | 32 | 9 | 9 | 14 | 36 |
| 18 | Nieciecza | 32 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 28 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lech Poznan | 33 | 60 | 43 | +17 | 59 |
| 2 | Lechia Gdansk | 32 | 59 | 60 | -1 | 38 |
| 3 | Jagiellonia | 32 | 53 | 39 | +14 | 52 |
| 4 | Radomiak Radom | 33 | 50 | 47 | +3 | 44 |
| 5 | GKS Katowice | 32 | 48 | 42 | +6 | 48 |
| 6 | Pogon Szczecin | 33 | 46 | 48 | -2 | 44 |
| 7 | Motor Lublin | 33 | 46 | 49 | -3 | 43 |
| 8 | Zaglebie Lubin | 33 | 45 | 37 | +8 | 48 |
| 9 | Raków Częstochowa | 32 | 45 | 39 | +6 | 49 |
| 10 | Gornik Zabrze | 33 | 44 | 36 | +8 | 53 |
| 11 | Piast Gliwice | 32 | 40 | 41 | -1 | 41 |
| 12 | Korona Kielce | 33 | 39 | 39 | 0 | 42 |
| 13 | Widzew Łódź | 33 | 39 | 40 | -1 | 39 |
| 14 | Cracovia Krakow | 33 | 38 | 41 | -3 | 41 |
| 15 | Nieciecza | 32 | 37 | 61 | -24 | 28 |
| 16 | Legia Warszawa | 32 | 36 | 36 | 0 | 43 |
| 17 | Wisla Plock | 33 | 32 | 36 | -4 | 45 |
| 18 | Arka Gdynia | 32 | 32 | 55 | -23 | 36 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lech Poznan | 33 | 58.4 | 34.1 | +24.3 | 59 |
| 2 | Raków Częstochowa | 32 | 51.3 | 39.8 | +11.5 | 49 |
| 3 | Legia Warszawa | 32 | 42.8 | 33.9 | +8.9 | 43 |
| 4 | Lechia Gdansk | 32 | 47.2 | 42.3 | +4.9 | 38 |
| 5 | Pogon Szczecin | 33 | 50.5 | 47.6 | +2.9 | 44 |
| 6 | Piast Gliwice | 32 | 42.1 | 39.4 | +2.7 | 41 |
| 7 | Cracovia Krakow | 33 | 36.6 | 34.5 | +2.1 | 41 |
| 8 | Gornik Zabrze | 33 | 40.5 | 38.7 | +1.8 | 53 |
| 9 | Widzew Łódź | 33 | 37.6 | 36.4 | +1.2 | 39 |
| 10 | Korona Kielce | 33 | 48.8 | 49.2 | -0.4 | 42 |
| 11 | Radomiak Radom | 33 | 41.5 | 42.4 | -0.9 | 44 |
| 12 | Wisla Plock | 33 | 40.9 | 43.2 | -2.3 | 45 |
| 13 | GKS Katowice | 32 | 40.0 | 43.4 | -3.4 | 48 |
| 14 | Jagiellonia | 32 | 40.3 | 47.1 | -6.8 | 52 |
| 15 | Zaglebie Lubin | 33 | 32.9 | 40.9 | -8.0 | 48 |
| 16 | Nieciecza | 32 | 41.1 | 53.0 | -11.9 | 28 |
| 17 | Motor Lublin | 33 | 37.8 | 50.7 | -12.9 | 43 |
| 18 | Arka Gdynia | 32 | 34.1 | 47.9 | -13.8 | 36 |
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