Nieciecza vs Legia Warszawa Statistics & Analysis

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  "decision_algo_version": "2.0.0",
  "facts": {
    "ai_fp": {
      "away_predicted_xg": 1.4,
      "away_win_prob": 0.3484,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2807,
      "fair_odds_away": 2.87,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.56,
      "fair_odds_home": 2.7,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.45,
      "home_win_prob": 0.3709,
      "prediction_confidence": "high"
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : draw or Legia Warszawa",
      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "45%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "10%",
      "winner_name": "Legia Warszawa"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.4,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Nieciecza",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
        "edge": 0.172,
        "edge_gap": 0.0219,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.1985,
        "model_prob": 0.3705,
        "pick_type": "no_strong",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 34.9,
          "draw": 28.1,
          "home": 37.0
        },
        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 4.75
        }
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      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 4.75,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Nieciecza Win",
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 5.04,
        "market_odds": 4.75,
        "model_odds": 2.7,
        "overround": 6.0,
        "prob_edge": 16.0,
        "value_pct": 75.9,
        "value_rating": "strong_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 9,
        "away_failed_to_score": 7,
        "away_played": 31,
        "away_score_rate": 75.3,
        "home_clean_sheet": 3,
        "home_failed_to_score": 6,
        "home_played": 31,
        "home_score_rate": 76.5,
        "no_prob": 40.8,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 59.2,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "yes_prob": 59.2
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.4,
        "home_expected": 1.45,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 11.7
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 8.5
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 8.4
          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-2",
            "prob": 8.2
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-1",
            "prob": 8.1
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Nieciecza or Draw",
            "prob": 65.2
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Nieciecza or Legia Warszawa",
            "prob": 71.9
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Legia Warszawa",
            "prob": 62.9
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "12",
        "pick_label": "Nieciecza or Legia Warszawa",
        "pick_prob": 71.9
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 34.8,
        "draw_pct": 28.1,
        "home_pct": 37.1,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "Nieciecza"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 2.85,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.1,
        "confidence": "low",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.2,
        "over_prob": 54.2,
        "pick": "Over 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 54.2,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "total_expected": 2.85,
        "under_prob": 45.8
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": 76.2,
        "implied_prob": 21.1,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Home",
        "market": "Nieciecza Win",
        "model_prob": 37.1,
        "odds": 4.75
      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
        "prob": 11.7
      }
    },
    "home_xg": 1.45,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.0642,
        "ev_available": true,
        "featured": true,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.1985,
        "max_ev": 0.0642,
        "model_prob": 0.3705,
        "side_label": "Nieciecza",
        "sort_key": 10207.78,
        "tier": "best"
      },
      {
        "decision": "small_edge",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": -0.0786,
        "ev_under": 0.0076,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": 0.0076,
        "over_prob": 54.2,
        "sort_key": 5206.08,
        "tier": "lean",
        "under_prob": 45.8,
        "value_side": "under"
      },
      {
        "decision": "lean",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": -0.1024,
        "ev_yes": -0.0114,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": -0.0114,
        "no_prob": 40.8,
        "sort_key": 1797.15,
        "tier": "bad_ev",
        "value_side": "yes",
        "yes_prob": 59.2
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 815.1,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "1-1",
        "top_prob": 11.7
      }
    ],
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 339,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/339.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Legia Warszawa",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/pl.svg",
      "country_name": "Poland",
      "fixture_id": 1380669,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 3487,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3487.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Nieciecza",
      "league_country": "Poland",
      "league_id": 106,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/106.webp",
      "league_name": "Ekstraklasa",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-09 16:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
    "match_decision": {
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        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.4024,
            "best_odd": 1.66,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0883,
            "ev": -0.2037,
            "implied_prob": 0.5681,
            "model_prob": 0.3485,
            "p_final": 0.4797
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          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.1857,
            "best_odd": 4.04,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0088,
            "ev": -0.0213,
            "implied_prob": 0.2334,
            "model_prob": 0.281,
            "p_final": 0.2422
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          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.1484,
            "best_odd": 4.75,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0255,
            "ev": 0.0642,
            "implied_prob": 0.1985,
            "model_prob": 0.3705,
            "p_final": 0.224
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        },
        "btts": {
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          "best_yes_odd": 1.67,
          "edge_no": -0.0266,
          "edge_yes": 0.0266,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.1024,
          "ev_yes": -0.0114,
          "implied_no": 0.4346,
          "implied_yes": 0.5654,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
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        "ou25": {
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          "best_under_odd": 2.2,
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          "edge_under": 0.0213,
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          "implied_over": 0.5633,
          "implied_under": 0.4367,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
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      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.85,
      "variance_flag": false
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      "algorithm": {
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      "best_tracked_ev": 0.0642,
      "confidence": 5.0,
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          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
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        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
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        "grade": "B",
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        "scoring_type": "high_scoring",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.592,
          "draw_prob": 0.281,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.3705,
          "over_prob": 0.542,
          "total_xg": 2.85,
          "under_prob": 0.458,
          "xg_diff": 0.05
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        "type": "high_scoring",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
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      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
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          "edge": 0.0255,
          "ev": 0.0642,
          "implied_prob": 0.1985,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.3705,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Nieciecza"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "lean",
          "edge": 0.0266,
          "ev": -0.0114,
          "implied_prob": 0.5654,
          "model_prob": 0.592,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "small_edge",
          "edge": 0.0213,
          "ev": 0.0076,
          "implied_prob": 0.4367,
          "model_prob": 0.458,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1380669,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "optional",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": false,
        "code": "thin_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.0642,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 0.25,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.3485,
        "draw": 0.281,
        "home": 0.3705
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "high_total_goals"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Legia Warszawa",
        "home": "Nieciecza"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.019029,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.0642,
        "implied_prob": 0.1985,
        "market": "1x2",
        "model_prob": 0.3705,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "primary_strength": "weak",
        "risk_band": "speculative",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "home",
        "side_label": "Nieciecza",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": true
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      "valid_markets_count": 1
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  },
  "fixture_id": 1380669,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-09T16:00:51.762341+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}