Lech Poznan vs Arka Gdynia Statistics & Analysis

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      "away_predicted_xg": 0.97,
      "away_win_prob": 0.1111,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.1799,
      "fair_odds_away": 9.0,
      "fair_odds_draw": 5.56,
      "fair_odds_home": 1.41,
      "home_predicted_xg": 2.57,
      "home_win_prob": 0.7091,
      "prediction_confidence": "high"
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : Lech Poznan or draw",
      "main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
      "percent_away": "10%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "45%",
      "winner_name": "Lech Poznan"
    },
    "away_xg": 0.97,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Lech Poznan",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
        "edge": -0.004,
        "edge_gap": 0.5293,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.7131,
        "model_prob": 0.7091,
        "pick_type": "no_value",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 11.1,
          "draw": 18.0,
          "home": 70.9
        },
        "reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
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          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 1.34
        }
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      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 1.34,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Lech Poznan Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 1.4,
        "market_odds": 1.34,
        "model_odds": 1.41,
        "overround": 4.7,
        "prob_edge": -3.7,
        "value_pct": -5.0,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
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    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 6,
        "away_failed_to_score": 12,
        "away_played": 30,
        "away_score_rate": 62.1,
        "home_clean_sheet": 10,
        "home_failed_to_score": 4,
        "home_played": 31,
        "home_score_rate": 92.3,
        "no_prob": 41.7,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 58.3,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 58.3
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 0.97,
        "home_expected": 2.57,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-0",
            "prob": 9.6
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 9.3
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 3,
            "label": "3-0",
            "prob": 8.2
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 3,
            "label": "3-1",
            "prob": 8.0
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 7.5
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
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      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
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            "label": "Lech Poznan or Draw",
            "prob": 88.9
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
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            "prob": 82.0
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Arka Gdynia",
            "prob": 29.1
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "1X",
        "pick_label": "Lech Poznan or Draw",
        "pick_prob": 88.9
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 11.1,
        "draw_pct": 18.0,
        "home_pct": 70.9,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "Lech Poznan"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 3.54,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.0,
        "confidence": "high",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.8,
        "over_prob": 68.7,
        "pick": "Over 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 68.7,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "total_expected": 3.54,
        "under_prob": 31.4
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
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        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": 2.2,
        "implied_prob": 17.6,
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Draw",
        "market": "Draw",
        "model_prob": 18.0,
        "odds": 5.68
      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "2-0",
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      }
    },
    "home_xg": 2.57,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "small_edge",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": -0.1452,
        "ev_yes": 0.0202,
        "featured": true,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": 0.0202,
        "no_prob": 41.7,
        "sort_key": 5216.16,
        "tier": "lean",
        "value_side": "yes",
        "yes_prob": 58.3
      },
      {
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        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": 0.0168,
        "ev_under": -0.1334,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": 0.0168,
        "over_prob": 68.7,
        "sort_key": 5213.44,
        "tier": "lean",
        "under_prob": 31.4,
        "value_side": "over"
      },
      {
        "decision": "no_bet",
        "ev": -0.0477,
        "ev_available": true,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.7131,
        "max_ev": -0.0315,
        "model_prob": 0.7091,
        "side_label": "Lech Poznan",
        "sort_key": 1792.125,
        "tier": "bad_ev"
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 808.8,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "2-0",
        "top_prob": 9.6
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    ],
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 344,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/344.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Arka Gdynia",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/pl.svg",
      "country_name": "Poland",
      "fixture_id": 1380666,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 347,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/347.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Lech Poznan",
      "league_country": "Poland",
      "league_id": 106,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/106.webp",
      "league_name": "Ekstraklasa",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-09 16:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
    "match_decision": {
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        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 9.0
      },
      "markets": {
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          "away": {
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            "best_odd": 8.05,
            "calibration": {
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              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0015,
            "ev": -0.0566,
            "implied_prob": 0.1187,
            "model_prob": 0.1111,
            "p_final": 0.1172
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.1965,
            "best_odd": 5.68,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0023,
            "ev": -0.0315,
            "implied_prob": 0.1682,
            "model_prob": 0.1798,
            "p_final": 0.1705
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          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.5964,
            "best_odd": 1.34,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0024,
            "ev": -0.0477,
            "implied_prob": 0.7131,
            "model_prob": 0.7091,
            "p_final": 0.7107
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        },
        "btts": {
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          "best_yes_odd": 1.75,
          "edge_no": -0.0453,
          "edge_yes": 0.0453,
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          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
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          "implied_under": 0.3581,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
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      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 3.54,
      "variance_flag": false
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        "enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
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      "best_tracked_ev": 0.0202,
      "confidence": 5.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
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        "breakdown_resolved": [],
        "score": 5.0
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": true,
        "1x2_open_contest": false,
        "grade": "C",
        "stake_factor": 0.0
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      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
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          "total_xg": 3.54,
          "under_prob": 0.314,
          "xg_diff": 1.6
        },
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        "typing_weights_enabled": true
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      "hero_display_pick": {
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        "ev": 0.0202,
        "hero_display_only": true,
        "implied_prob": 0.5377,
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        "model_prob": 0.583,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "hero_display",
        "side": "yes",
        "slot": "hero_display"
      },
      "longshot_picks": [],
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          "implied_prob": 0.7131,
          "max_ev_side": "draw",
          "model_prob": 0.7091,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Lech Poznan"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "small_edge",
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          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "small_edge",
          "edge": 0.0451,
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          "implied_prob": 0.6419,
          "model_prob": 0.687,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1380666,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "optional",
        "actionable": false,
        "clear_edge": false,
        "code": "thin_edge",
        "execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
        "insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
        "max_valid_ev": 0.0202,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 0.25,
        "use_split_strip": true
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.1111,
        "draw": 0.1798,
        "home": 0.7091
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2",
        "high_total_goals"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Arka Gdynia",
        "home": "Lech Poznan"
      },
      "top_pick": null,
      "valid_markets_count": 1
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1380666,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-09T16:00:58.943955+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}