Estadísticas / Fútbol / Poland. Ekstraklasa / Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia

Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia Statistics & Analysis

May 13, 2026 - 18:30
0 2.15
2 1.11
xG Accuracy: 43%
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Más / Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Raków Częstochowa Jagiellonia ✖ Incorrect
  • Perspectivas de marcador exacto 2-1 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.

View technical JSON
{
  "bundle_version": 1,
  "content_hash": "7228dcb867d501c203b22876ab2ec9748dabaadbb8d835198697abf354a41ac6",
  "decision_algo_version": "2.0.0",
  "facts": {
    "ai_fp": {
      "away_predicted_xg": 1.11,
      "away_win_prob": 0.1756,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2254,
      "fair_odds_away": 5.7,
      "fair_odds_draw": 4.44,
      "fair_odds_home": 1.67,
      "home_predicted_xg": 2.15,
      "home_win_prob": 0.5991,
      "prediction_confidence": "high"
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "No predictions available",
      "main_pick_display": "Winner : Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa",
      "percent_away": "33%",
      "percent_draw": "33%",
      "percent_home": "33%",
      "winner_name": null
    },
    "away_xg": 1.11,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa",
      "confidence": 59.9,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "high",
        "display_text": "Winner : Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa",
        "edge": 0.1559,
        "edge_gap": 0.3738,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.4432,
        "model_prob": 0.5991,
        "pick_type": "winner",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 17.6,
          "draw": 22.5,
          "home": 59.9
        },
        "reason": "",
        "selection": "home",
        "selection_name": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa"
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 2.17
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": "#f44336",
      "risk_key": "high_risk",
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 2.17,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa Win",
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 2.26,
        "market_odds": 2.17,
        "model_odds": 1.67,
        "overround": 4.0,
        "prob_edge": 13.8,
        "value_pct": 29.9,
        "value_rating": "strong_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 8,
        "away_failed_to_score": 6,
        "away_played": 31,
        "away_score_rate": 67.0,
        "home_clean_sheet": 9,
        "home_failed_to_score": 6,
        "home_played": 31,
        "home_score_rate": 88.4,
        "no_prob": 39.6,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 60.4,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "yes_prob": 60.4
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.11,
        "home_expected": 2.15,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 9.8
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 9.2
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-0",
            "prob": 8.9
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 8.3
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 3,
            "label": "3-1",
            "prob": 7.1
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa or Draw",
            "prob": 82.4
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa or Jagiellonia",
            "prob": 77.5
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Jagiellonia",
            "prob": 40.1
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "1X",
        "pick_label": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa or Draw",
        "pick_prob": 82.4
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 17.6,
        "draw_pct": 22.5,
        "home_pct": 59.9,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 3.26,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.6,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.5,
        "over_prob": 63.2,
        "pick": "Over 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 63.2,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 3.26,
        "under_prob": 36.8
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": 30.0,
        "implied_prob": 46.1,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Home",
        "market": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa Win",
        "model_prob": 59.9,
        "odds": 2.17
      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "2-1",
        "prob": 9.8
      }
    },
    "home_xg": 2.15,
    "homepage_pick": {
      "best_bookmaker": "Unibet",
      "best_odds": 2.12,
      "confidence": "moderate",
      "display_label": "Home Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa",
      "edge": 12.7,
      "ev": 26.9,
      "probability": 59.9
    },
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": 0.1439,
        "ev_under": -0.2272,
        "featured": true,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": 0.1439,
        "over_prob": 63.2,
        "sort_key": 10279.51,
        "tier": "best",
        "under_prob": 36.8,
        "value_side": "over"
      },
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.0784,
        "ev_available": true,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.4432,
        "max_ev": 0.0784,
        "model_prob": 0.5991,
        "side_label": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa",
        "sort_key": 10070.56,
        "tier": "best"
      },
      {
        "decision": "small_edge",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": -0.0892,
        "ev_yes": 0.0087,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": 0.0087,
        "no_prob": 39.6,
        "sort_key": 5206.96,
        "tier": "lean",
        "value_side": "yes",
        "yes_prob": 60.4
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 809.4,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "2-1",
        "top_prob": 9.8
      }
    ],
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 336,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/336.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Jagiellonia",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/pl.svg",
      "country_name": "Poland",
      "fixture_id": 1380661,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 3491,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3491.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa",
      "league_country": "Poland",
      "league_id": 106,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/106.webp",
      "league_name": "Ekstraklasa",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-13 18:30:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 8.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.2535,
            "best_odd": 3.45,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0262,
            "ev": -0.1285,
            "implied_prob": 0.2788,
            "model_prob": 0.1755,
            "p_final": 0.2526
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2763,
            "best_odd": 3.46,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0145,
            "ev": -0.0885,
            "implied_prob": 0.278,
            "model_prob": 0.2253,
            "p_final": 0.2634
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.3448,
            "best_odd": 2.17,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0537,
            "ev": 0.0784,
            "implied_prob": 0.4432,
            "model_prob": 0.5991,
            "p_final": 0.497
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 2.3,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.67,
          "edge_no": -0.0338,
          "edge_yes": 0.0338,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.0892,
          "ev_yes": 0.0087,
          "implied_no": 0.4298,
          "implied_yes": 0.5702,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 1.81,
          "best_under_odd": 2.1,
          "edge_over": 0.1,
          "edge_under": -0.1,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": 0.1439,
          "ev_under": -0.2272,
          "implied_over": 0.532,
          "implied_under": 0.468,
          "n_bookmakers": 11,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 3.26,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.0.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.1439,
      "confidence": 7.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 7.5
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": true,
        "1x2_open_contest": false,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "strong_signal",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.604,
          "draw_prob": 0.2253,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.5991,
          "over_prob": 0.632,
          "total_xg": 3.26,
          "under_prob": 0.368,
          "xg_diff": 1.04
        },
        "type": "strong_signal",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0537,
          "ev": 0.0784,
          "implied_prob": 0.4432,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.5991,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "small_edge",
          "edge": 0.0338,
          "ev": 0.0087,
          "implied_prob": 0.5702,
          "model_prob": 0.604,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1,
          "ev": 0.1439,
          "implied_prob": 0.532,
          "model_prob": 0.632,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1380661,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.1439,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.1755,
        "draw": 0.2253,
        "home": 0.5991
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "high_total_goals"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Jagiellonia",
        "home": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.090945,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1439,
        "implied_prob": 0.532,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.632,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "over",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1380661,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-13T18:29:04.906484+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
  • Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
  • No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
  • Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.

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Volver a Estadísticas
Ekstraklasa EkstraklasaClasificación
# EQUIPO PJ G E P Pts
1 Lech Poznan 33 16 11 6 59
2 Gornik Zabrze 33 15 8 10 53
3 Jagiellonia 32 14 10 8 52
4 Raków Częstochowa 32 14 7 11 49
5 Zaglebie Lubin 33 13 9 11 48
6 GKS Katowice 32 14 6 12 48
7 Wisla Plock 33 12 9 12 45
8 Radomiak Radom 33 11 11 11 44
9 Pogon Szczecin 33 13 5 15 44
10 Legia Warszawa 32 10 13 9 43
11 Motor Lublin 33 10 13 10 43
12 Korona Kielce 33 11 9 13 42
13 Piast Gliwice 32 11 8 13 41
14 Cracovia Krakow 33 9 14 10 41
15 Widzew Łódź 33 11 6 16 39
16 Lechia Gdansk 32 12 7 13 38
17 Arka Gdynia 32 9 9 14 36
18 Nieciecza 32 7 7 18 28
# EQUIPO PJ GF GC +/- Pts
1 Lech Poznan 33 60 43 +17 59
2 Lechia Gdansk 32 59 60 -1 38
3 Jagiellonia 32 53 39 +14 52
4 Radomiak Radom 33 50 47 +3 44
5 GKS Katowice 32 48 42 +6 48
6 Pogon Szczecin 33 46 48 -2 44
7 Motor Lublin 33 46 49 -3 43
8 Zaglebie Lubin 33 45 37 +8 48
9 Raków Częstochowa 32 45 39 +6 49
10 Gornik Zabrze 33 44 36 +8 53
11 Piast Gliwice 32 40 41 -1 41
12 Korona Kielce 33 39 39 0 42
13 Widzew Łódź 33 39 40 -1 39
14 Cracovia Krakow 33 38 41 -3 41
15 Nieciecza 32 37 61 -24 28
16 Legia Warszawa 32 36 36 0 43
17 Wisla Plock 33 32 36 -4 45
18 Arka Gdynia 32 32 55 -23 36
# EQUIPO PJ xG xGC +/- Pts
1 Lech Poznan 33 58.4 34.1 +24.3 59
2 Raków Częstochowa 32 51.3 39.8 +11.5 49
3 Legia Warszawa 32 42.8 33.9 +8.9 43
4 Lechia Gdansk 32 47.2 42.3 +4.9 38
5 Pogon Szczecin 33 50.5 47.6 +2.9 44
6 Piast Gliwice 32 42.1 39.4 +2.7 41
7 Cracovia Krakow 33 36.6 34.5 +2.1 41
8 Gornik Zabrze 33 40.5 38.7 +1.8 53
9 Widzew Łódź 33 37.6 36.4 +1.2 39
10 Korona Kielce 33 48.8 49.2 -0.4 42
11 Radomiak Radom 33 41.5 42.4 -0.9 44
12 Wisla Plock 33 40.9 43.2 -2.3 45
13 GKS Katowice 32 40.0 43.4 -3.4 48
14 Jagiellonia 32 40.3 47.1 -6.8 52
15 Zaglebie Lubin 33 32.9 40.9 -8.0 48
16 Nieciecza 32 41.1 53.0 -11.9 28
17 Motor Lublin 33 37.8 50.7 -12.9 43
18 Arka Gdynia 32 34.1 47.9 -13.8 36