Manchester City vs Brentford Statistics & Analysis

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      "away_win_prob": 0.1884,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2441,
      "fair_odds_away": 5.31,
      "fair_odds_draw": 4.1,
      "fair_odds_home": 1.76,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.95,
      "home_win_prob": 0.5675,
      "prediction_confidence": "high"
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Winner : Manchester City",
      "main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
      "percent_away": "10%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "45%",
      "winner_name": "Manchester City"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.06,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Manchester City",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
        "edge": -0.1382,
        "edge_gap": 0.3241,
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        "market_prob": 0.7062,
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        "pick_type": "no_value",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 18.8,
          "draw": 24.4,
          "home": 56.8
        },
        "reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
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      "market_comparison": [
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          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 1.37
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      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 1.37,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Manchester City Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 1.42,
        "market_odds": 1.37,
        "model_odds": 1.76,
        "overround": 3.4,
        "prob_edge": -16.2,
        "value_pct": -22.2,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
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    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 10,
        "away_failed_to_score": 11,
        "away_played": 35,
        "away_score_rate": 65.4,
        "home_clean_sheet": 14,
        "home_failed_to_score": 4,
        "home_played": 34,
        "home_score_rate": 85.8,
        "no_prob": 42.6,
        "pick": "No",
        "pick_prob": 57.4,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 57.4
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        "away_expected": 1.06,
        "home_expected": 1.95,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 10.2
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 9.9
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          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 9.6
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-0",
            "prob": 9.4
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 3,
            "label": "3-1",
            "prob": 6.5
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Manchester City or Draw",
            "prob": 81.2
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Manchester City or Brentford",
            "prob": 75.6
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          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Brentford",
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          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "1X",
        "pick_label": "Manchester City or Draw",
        "pick_prob": 81.2
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 18.8,
        "draw_pct": 24.4,
        "home_pct": 56.8,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "Manchester City"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 3.01,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.5,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "home_avg_scored": 2.0,
        "over_prob": 57.9,
        "pick": "Under 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 57.9,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 3.01,
        "under_prob": 42.1
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
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        "edge": 44.2,
        "implied_prob": 13.0,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Away",
        "market": "Brentford Win",
        "model_prob": 18.8,
        "odds": 7.67
      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
        "prob": 10.2
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    },
    "home_xg": 1.95,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
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        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": -0.1836,
        "ev_under": 0.3472,
        "featured": true,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
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        "over_prob": 57.9,
        "sort_key": 10462.48,
        "tier": "best",
        "under_prob": 42.1,
        "value_side": "under"
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        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.7062,
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        "side_label": "Manchester City",
        "sort_key": 5243.12,
        "tier": "lean"
      },
      {
        "decision": "small_edge",
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        "ev_yes": -0.0701,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "btts",
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        "no_prob": 42.6,
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        "tier": "lean",
        "value_side": "no",
        "yes_prob": 57.4
      },
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    ],
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 55,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/55.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Brentford",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
      "country_name": "England",
      "fixture_id": 1379324,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 50,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/50.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Manchester City",
      "league_country": "England",
      "league_id": 39,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/39.webp",
      "league_name": "Premier League",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-09 14:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
    "match_decision": {
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        "score": 8.0
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              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "ev": 0.0539,
            "implied_prob": 0.1261,
            "model_prob": 0.1882,
            "p_final": 0.1374
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          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.1772,
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            "implied_prob": 0.1677,
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          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
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              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "p_final": 0.6404
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        },
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          "best_yes_odd": 1.62,
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          "implied_yes": 0.5928,
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      "confidence": 7.5,
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          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
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        "score": 7.5
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        "grade": "A",
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          "total_xg": 3.01,
          "under_prob": 0.421,
          "xg_diff": 0.89
        },
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        "typing_weights_enabled": true
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      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [
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          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.0539,
          "implied_prob": 0.1261,
          "market": "1x2",
          "model_prob": 0.1882,
          "not_dominant": true,
          "risk_band": "longshot",
          "risk_tier": "longshot",
          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "Brentford",
          "slot": "longshot"
        },
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
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          "market": "1x2",
          "model_prob": 0.2438,
          "not_dominant": true,
          "risk_band": "longshot",
          "risk_tier": "longshot",
          "side": "draw",
          "side_label": "draw",
          "slot": "longshot"
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      ],
      "markets": {
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          "max_ev_side": "away",
          "model_prob": 0.5679,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Manchester City"
        },
        "btts": {
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          "implied_prob": 0.4072,
          "model_prob": 0.426,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
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          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
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      },
      "match_id": 1379324,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "optional",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": false,
        "code": "thin_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
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        "stake_mult": 0.25,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.1882,
        "draw": 0.2438,
        "home": 0.5679
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2",
        "high_total_goals",
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      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Brentford",
        "home": "Manchester City"
      },
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        "composite_score": 0.146171,
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        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
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      "valid_markets_count": 4
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  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-09T13:59:20.501546+00:00",
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