Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest Statistics & Analysis

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  "decision_algo_version": "2.0.0",
  "facts": {
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      "away_predicted_xg": 1.05,
      "away_win_prob": 0.2641,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.3001,
      "fair_odds_away": 3.79,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.33,
      "fair_odds_home": 2.29,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.41,
      "home_win_prob": 0.4359,
      "prediction_confidence": "high"
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : draw or Nottingham Forest",
      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "45%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "10%",
      "winner_name": "Nottingham Forest"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.05,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Chelsea",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
        "edge": -0.1276,
        "edge_gap": 0.1363,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.5639,
        "model_prob": 0.4363,
        "pick_type": "no_strong",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 26.4,
          "draw": 30.0,
          "home": 43.6
        },
        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 1.72
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 1.72,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Chelsea Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 1.77,
        "market_odds": 1.72,
        "model_odds": 2.29,
        "overround": 3.1,
        "prob_edge": -14.5,
        "value_pct": -24.9,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 9,
        "away_failed_to_score": 14,
        "away_played": 34,
        "away_score_rate": 65.0,
        "home_clean_sheet": 9,
        "home_failed_to_score": 7,
        "home_played": 34,
        "home_score_rate": 75.6,
        "no_prob": 49.2,
        "pick": "No",
        "pick_prob": 50.8,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 50.8
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.05,
        "home_expected": 1.41,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 12.6
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 12.0
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-1",
            "prob": 9.0
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 8.9
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-0",
            "prob": 8.5
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Chelsea or Draw",
            "prob": 73.6
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Chelsea or Nottingham Forest",
            "prob": 70.0
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Nottingham Forest",
            "prob": 56.4
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "1X",
        "pick_label": "Chelsea or Draw",
        "pick_prob": 73.6
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 26.4,
        "draw_pct": 30.0,
        "home_pct": 43.6,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "Chelsea"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 2.46,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.2,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.6,
        "over_prob": 44.6,
        "pick": "Under 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 55.4,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 2.46,
        "under_prob": 55.4
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": 32.3,
        "implied_prob": 20.0,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Away",
        "market": "Nottingham Forest Win",
        "model_prob": 26.4,
        "odds": 5.01
      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": {
        "best_bookmaker": "Bet365",
        "best_odds": 17.0,
        "edge": 3.1,
        "ev": 52.5,
        "label": "0-1",
        "probability": 9.0
      },
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
        "prob": 12.6
      }
    },
    "home_xg": 1.41,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": -0.2061,
        "ev_under": 0.2188,
        "featured": true,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": 0.2188,
        "over_prob": 44.6,
        "sort_key": 10346.92,
        "tier": "best",
        "under_prob": 55.4,
        "value_side": "under"
      },
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": 0.0578,
        "ev_yes": -0.1364,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": 0.0578,
        "no_prob": 49.2,
        "sort_key": 10052.02,
        "tier": "best",
        "value_side": "no",
        "yes_prob": 50.8
      },
      {
        "decision": "no_bet",
        "ev": -0.1365,
        "ev_available": true,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.5639,
        "max_ev": 0.0327,
        "model_prob": 0.4363,
        "side_label": "Chelsea",
        "sort_key": 5226.16,
        "tier": "lean"
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 817.8,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "1-1",
        "top_prob": 12.6
      }
    ],
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 65,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/65.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Nottingham Forest",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
      "country_name": "England",
      "fixture_id": 1379313,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 49,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/49.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Chelsea",
      "league_country": "England",
      "league_id": 39,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/39.webp",
      "league_name": "Premier League",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-04 14:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
          "pred_conf_md_xg_borderline",
          "pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
          "Total xG in borderline band (high variance) (\u22121.5)",
          "Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
        ],
        "score": 4.5
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.179,
            "best_odd": 5.01,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0125,
            "ev": 0.0327,
            "implied_prob": 0.1936,
            "model_prob": 0.2636,
            "p_final": 0.2061
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.1827,
            "best_odd": 4.0,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0105,
            "ev": 0.012,
            "implied_prob": 0.2425,
            "model_prob": 0.3001,
            "p_final": 0.253
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.4852,
            "best_odd": 1.72,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0619,
            "ev": -0.1365,
            "implied_prob": 0.5639,
            "model_prob": 0.4363,
            "p_final": 0.502
          }
        },
        "btts": {
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          "best_yes_odd": 1.7,
          "edge_no": 0.0482,
          "edge_yes": -0.0482,
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          "ev_yes": -0.1364,
          "implied_no": 0.4438,
          "implied_yes": 0.5562,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 1.78,
          "best_under_odd": 2.2,
          "edge_over": -0.1067,
          "edge_under": 0.1067,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": -0.2061,
          "ev_under": 0.2188,
          "implied_over": 0.5527,
          "implied_under": 0.4473,
          "n_bookmakers": 11,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.46,
      "variance_flag": true
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
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      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.2188,
      "confidence": 6.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
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          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
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        "breakdown_resolved": [
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          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.508,
          "draw_prob": 0.3001,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.4363,
          "over_prob": 0.446,
          "total_xg": 2.46,
          "under_prob": 0.554,
          "xg_diff": 0.36
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.0327,
          "implied_prob": 0.1936,
          "market": "1x2",
          "model_prob": 0.2636,
          "not_dominant": true,
          "risk_band": "speculative",
          "risk_tier": "longshot",
          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "Nottingham Forest",
          "slot": "longshot"
        }
      ],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": -0.0619,
          "ev": -0.1365,
          "implied_prob": 0.5639,
          "max_ev_side": "away",
          "model_prob": 0.4363,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Chelsea"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0482,
          "ev": 0.0578,
          "implied_prob": 0.4438,
          "model_prob": 0.492,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1067,
          "ev": 0.2188,
          "implied_prob": 0.4473,
          "model_prob": 0.554,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1379313,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.2188,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.2636,
        "draw": 0.3001,
        "home": 0.4363
      },
      "reason_codes": [
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        "variance_medium",
        "longshot_high_variance"
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      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Nottingham Forest",
        "home": "Chelsea"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.074669,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.2188,
        "implied_prob": 0.4473,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.554,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 3
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1379313,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-04T13:59:05.099958+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}