Racing Montevideo vs Penarol Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Racing Montevideo
Oct 04, 2026 - 22:30
1.29 1.31
Penarol
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 4 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Racing Montevideo opened at -0.25 against Penarol in the Primera División. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.02
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Racing Montevideo -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.27
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.27 AH points more toward Penarol than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Racing Montevideo -0.25
@ 2.85
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.27
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.39
Price Advantage
+19.2%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.74 / 1.80 -0.25 2.74 / 1.80 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 2.85 / 1.88 -0.25 2.85 / 1.88 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.75 / 1.82 -0.25 2.75 / 1.82 — 0
Betano -0.25 2.82 / 1.85 -0.25 2.82 / 1.85 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.02
xG 1.29 / 1.31 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.74
Racing Montevideo @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.39
Racing Montevideo @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.74 vs 2.39
Market price is 14.6% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 8.10 4.45
-1.25 7.40 3.96
-1.00 6.80 3.42
-0.75 4.20 2.50
-0.25 2.75 1.82
0 2.31 1.51
+0.25 1.84 1.36
+0.75 1.43 1.16
+1.00 1.23 1.04
+1.25 1.18 1.03
+1.50 1.14 1.02

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.00 6.80 3.45
-0.75 4.25 2.60
-0.50 3.30 2.15
-0.25 2.85 1.88
0 2.38 1.55
+0.25 1.92 1.40
+0.50 1.68 1.32
+0.75 1.48 1.21
+1.00 1.30 1.10

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.82 1.85
+0.25 1.91 1.42

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 8.10 4.45
-1.25 7.40 3.95
-1.00 6.80 3.42
-0.75 4.20 2.49
-0.25 2.74 1.80
0 2.31 1.51
+0.25 1.82 1.35
+0.75 1.42 1.15
+1.00 1.23 1.04
+1.25 1.17 1.03
+1.50 1.14 1.02
Primary Bets
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