Wanderers vs Albion FC Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Wanderers
Final Score
2 – 1
(HT 2-0)
Albion FC
Kick-off 23:00

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Wanderers opened at -0.25 against Albion FC in the Primera División. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 6 valid books, with 67% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.04
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.32 / 1.28
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Wanderers -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 4 / 6 books · Moderate
Model–Market Gap
0.21
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.21 AH points more toward Albion FC than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Albion FC +0.25
@ 2.65
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.21
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.77
Price Advantage
+49.7%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 6 valid books · 67% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
-0.25
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
02:45
Opening
-0.25
20:10
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
22:59
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
0
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.83 / 2.49 -0.25 1.94 / 2.38 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.93 / 2.71 0 1.72 / 2.16 -0.25 +0.25
Bet365 -0.25 1.85 / 2.75 0 1.72 / 2.08 0 +0.25
1xBet -0.25 1.85 / 2.51 -0.25 1.96 / 2.39 -0.25 0
Betano -0.25 1.95 / 2.55 -0.25 2.05 / 2.50 -0.25 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.86 / 2.62 -0.25 1.99 / 2.50 -0.25 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.90 7.80
-1.50 4.55 5.95
-1.25 4.15 5.50
-1.00 3.68 5.05
-0.75 2.70 3.43
-0.25 1.96 2.39
0 1.66 2.03
+0.25 1.47 1.71
+0.75 1.23 1.37
+1.00 1.10 1.20
+1.25 1.08 1.16
+1.50 1.07 1.13
+1.75 1.02 1.07

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.80 6.00
-1.25 4.25 5.75
-1.00 3.80 5.25
-0.75 2.85 3.55
-0.50 2.38 2.85
-0.25 2.05 2.42
0 1.72 2.08
+0.25 1.52 1.75
+0.50 1.40 1.55
+0.75 1.27 1.40
+1.00 1.16 1.25
+1.25 1.14 1.21
+1.50 1.12 1.18

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.31 2.73
-0.25 1.99 2.50
0 1.65 2.07
+0.25 1.45 1.71
+0.50 1.38 1.52

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.35 2.87
-0.25 2.05 2.50
+0.25 1.52 1.75
+0.50 1.40 1.57

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.90 7.80
-1.50 4.55 5.95
-1.25 4.15 5.50
-1.00 3.68 5.05
-0.75 2.69 3.42
-0.25 1.94 2.38
0 1.66 2.03
+0.25 1.46 1.70
+0.75 1.23 1.36
+1.00 1.10 1.20
+1.25 1.08 1.16
+1.50 1.07 1.13
+1.75 1.02 1.07

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.00 4.23 5.64
-0.75 3.07 4.00
-0.50 2.51 3.11
-0.25 2.13 2.65
0 1.72 2.16
+0.25 1.50 1.76
+0.50 1.38 1.55
+0.75 1.26 1.39
+1.00 1.15 1.23
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
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