Cerrito vs La Luz Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Cerrito
Final Score
1 – 2
(HT 0-1)
La Luz
Kick-off 19:00

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Cerrito opened at -0.25 against La Luz in the Segunda División. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 5 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.12
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.23 / 1.37
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Cerrito -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 5 / 5 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.37
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.37 AH points more toward La Luz than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
La Luz +0.25
@ 2.76
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.37
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.63
Price Advantage
+69.3%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 5 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
-0.25
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
16:31
Opening
-0.25
18:00
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
19:00
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.84 / 2.62 -0.25 1.84 / 2.66 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.93 / 2.72 -0.25 1.93 / 2.76 -0.25 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.95 / 2.75 -0.25 1.95 / 2.68 -0.25 0
1xBet -0.25 1.86 / 2.62 -0.25 1.86 / 2.66 -0.25 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.83 / 2.74 -0.25 1.87 / 2.67 -0.25 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.55 7.60
-1.25 4.09 6.05
-1.00 3.58 6.40
-0.75 2.59 4.04
-0.25 1.86 2.66
0 1.55 2.23
+0.25 1.37 1.80
+0.75 1.16 1.39
+1.00 1.05 1.21
+1.25 1.06 1.16
+1.50 1.03 1.13

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.25 6.60
-1.25 3.80 6.00
-1.00 3.45 5.75
-0.75 2.60 3.90
-0.50 2.25 3.10
-0.25 1.95 2.68
0 1.60 2.30
+0.25 1.45 1.85
+0.50 1.35 1.62
+0.75 1.24 1.48
+1.00 1.14 1.30
+1.25 1.12 1.25
+1.50 1.11 1.21

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.87 2.67
0 1.56 2.24
+0.25 1.40 1.80

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.55 7.60
-1.00 3.58 6.40
-0.75 2.59 4.05
-0.25 1.84 2.66
0 1.55 2.23
+0.25 1.37 1.78
+0.75 1.16 1.39
+1.00 1.05 1.21
+1.50 1.03 1.13

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.23 3.19
-0.25 1.93 2.76
0 1.59 2.33
+0.25 1.42 1.88
+0.50 1.33 1.65
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

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