Guatemala vs El Salvador Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Guatemala
Final Score
6 – 0
(HT 3-0)
El Salvador
Kick-off 02:00 Stadium Estadio Manuel Felipe Carrera

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Guatemala opened at -0.25 against El Salvador in the CONCACAF Nations League. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 6 of 6 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.05
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.27 / 1.33
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Guatemala -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 6 / 6 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.30
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.30 AH points more toward El Salvador than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
El Salvador +0.25
@ 3.10
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.30
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.69
Price Advantage
+83.4%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
6 / 6 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
17:11
Opening
-0.25
00:45
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
01:59
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.65 / 2.95 -0.25 1.66 / 2.90 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.68 / 3.16 -0.25 1.75 / 3.01 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.75 / 2.85 -0.25 1.72 / 3.10 -0.25 0
1xBet -0.25 1.70 / 2.90 -0.25 1.70 / 2.90 -0.25 0
Betano -0.25 1.78 / 2.77 -0.25 1.62 / 2.90 -0.25 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.68 / 2.91 -0.25 1.66 / 2.92 -0.25 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.50 7.40
-1.25 3.14 6.99
-1.00 2.78 6.55
-0.75 2.19 4.29
-0.25 1.70 2.90
0 1.44 2.59
+0.25 1.32 2.04
+0.75 1.14 1.54
+1.00 1.05 1.34
+1.25 1.04 1.27
+1.50 1.03 1.22

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.25 3.30 7.00
-1.00 2.85 6.80
-0.75 2.30 4.50
-0.50 1.95 3.55
-0.25 1.72 3.10
0 1.45 2.68
+0.25 1.35 2.08
+0.50 1.27 1.85
+0.75 1.19 1.60
+1.00 1.10 1.40
+1.25 1.10 1.32

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.66 2.92
0 1.41 2.63
+0.25 1.34 2.05

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.62 2.90
+0.25 1.38 2.22

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.50 7.40
-1.25 3.14 7.00
-1.00 2.78 6.55
-0.75 2.19 4.30
-0.25 1.66 2.90
0 1.44 2.59
+0.25 1.32 2.00
+0.75 1.15 1.54
+1.00 1.05 1.34
+1.25 1.04 1.27
+1.50 1.03 1.22

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.01 3.43
-0.25 1.75 3.01
0 1.49 2.59
+0.25 1.37 2.07
+0.50 1.30 1.80
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

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