Jamaica vs Honduras Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Jamaica
Final Score
0 – 1
(HT 0-1)
Honduras
Kick-off 00:00 Stadium Independence Park

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Jamaica opened at -0.25 against Honduras in the CONCACAF Nations League. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 6 of 6 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.09
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.35 / 1.25
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Jamaica -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 6 / 6 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.16
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.16 AH points more toward Honduras than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Honduras +0.25
@ 3.00
Best Available Price · BetVictor
Line Edge
0.16
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.82
Price Advantage
+64.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
6 / 6 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
-0.25
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
14:03
Opening
-0.25
00:00
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
23:59
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.72 / 2.74 -0.25 1.78 / 2.69 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.85 / 2.74 -0.25 1.90 / 2.90 -0.25 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.72 / 3.00 -0.25 2.00 / 2.50 -0.25 0
1xBet -0.25 1.72 / 2.74 -0.25 1.78 / 2.66 -0.25 0
Betano -0.25 1.78 / 2.82 -0.25 1.55 / 2.90 -0.25 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.77 / 2.82 -0.25 1.55 / 3.00 -0.25 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.40 9.20
-1.50 4.15 7.20
-1.25 3.78 6.69
-1.00 3.38 6.15
-0.75 2.44 3.98
-0.25 1.78 2.66
0 1.50 2.28
+0.25 1.37 1.84
+0.75 1.17 1.44
+1.00 1.06 1.28
+1.25 1.04 1.23
+1.50 1.03 1.16

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.50 6.60
-1.25 4.15 6.00
-1.00 3.55 5.50
-0.75 2.68 3.55
-0.50 2.30 2.85
-0.25 2.00 2.50
0 1.68 2.15
+0.25 1.50 1.80
+0.50 1.40 1.60
+0.75 1.27 1.45
+1.00 1.15 1.27
+1.25 1.12 1.22
+1.50 1.11 1.19

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.55 3.00
0 1.32 3.00
+0.25 1.32 2.24

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.55 2.90
+0.25 1.38 2.35

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.35 9.20
-1.50 4.15 7.20
-1.25 3.64 6.75
-1.00 3.34 6.20
-0.75 2.43 4.00
-0.25 1.78 2.69
0 1.50 2.28
+0.25 1.36 1.84
+0.75 1.17 1.45
+1.00 1.06 1.28
+1.25 1.04 1.21
+1.50 1.03 1.16

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.62 4.34
-0.50 2.21 3.34
-0.25 1.90 2.90
0 1.58 2.43
+0.25 1.43 1.95
+0.50 1.33 1.69
+0.75 1.22 1.51
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
Primary Bets
More