Dominica vs Puerto Rico Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Dominica
Final Score
0 – 2
(HT 0-2)
Puerto Rico
Kick-off 00:00 Stadium Windsor Park

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Dominica opened at -0.25 against Puerto Rico in the CONCACAF Nations League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 6 of 6 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.14
Dominica +0.14

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

xG (pre-match) 1.22 / 1.38
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Dominica -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 6 / 6 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.39
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.39 AH points more toward Puerto Rico than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Dominica -0.25
@ 3.16
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.39
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.62
Price Advantage
+20.6%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
6 / 6 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
08:15
Opening
-0.25
20:51
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 3.04 / 1.62 -0.25 3.14 / 1.59 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.98 / 1.70 -0.25 3.16 / 1.52 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 2.42 / 1.88 -0.25 2.60 / 1.88 — 0
1xBet -0.25 3.04 / 1.62 -0.25 3.14 / 1.58 — 0
Betano -0.25 2.67 / 1.82 -0.25 2.85 / 1.55 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.94 / 1.72 -0.25 2.94 / 1.52 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.25 4.30
-1.50 8.70 3.34
-1.25 8.15 3.00
-1.00 7.70 2.68
-0.75 4.80 2.06
-0.25 3.14 1.58
0 2.74 1.35
+0.25 2.12 1.27
+0.75 1.61 1.12
+1.00 1.42 1.02
+1.25 1.29 1.02

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.80 4.10
-1.25 6.25 3.70
-1.00 5.75 3.30
-0.75 3.70 2.42
-0.50 2.85 2.10
-0.25 2.60 1.88
0 2.25 1.62
+0.25 1.92 1.48
+0.50 1.70 1.40
+0.75 1.52 1.26
+1.00 1.32 1.14
+1.25 1.26 1.12
+1.50 1.23 1.10

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.94 1.52
0 3.10 1.30
+0.25 2.31 1.33

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.85 1.55
+0.25 2.37 1.39

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.30 4.35
-1.50 8.60 3.34
-1.25 8.10 3.02
-1.00 7.60 2.68
-0.75 4.75 2.08
-0.25 3.14 1.59
0 2.70 1.36
+0.25 2.10 1.27
+0.75 1.61 1.12
+1.00 1.42 1.03
+1.25 1.30 1.02

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 3.16 1.52
0 3.19 1.31
+0.25 2.40 1.32
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

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