China PR U23 vs Korea DPR U23 Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

China PR U23
Final Score
2 – 1
(HT 1-1)
Korea DPR U23
Kick-off 10:00 Stadium Wave Stadium Kariya

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

China PR U23 opened at -0.25 against Korea DPR U23 in the Asian Games. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 5 valid books, with 60% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.09
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.35 / 1.25
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
China PR U23 -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 3 / 5 books · Moderate
Model–Market Gap
0.16
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.16 AH points more toward Korea DPR U23 than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Korea DPR U23 +0.25
@ 2.74
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.16
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.82
Price Advantage
+50.5%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 5 valid books · 60% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
-0.25
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
13:29
Opening
-0.25
09:42
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
09:59
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.91 / 2.52 -0.25 1.81 / 2.62 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.03 / 2.61 -0.25 1.93 / 2.74 -0.25 0
Bet365 0 2.02 / 1.78 0 1.88 / 1.92 0 0
1xBet -0.25 1.80 / 2.79 -0.25 1.84 / 2.60 -0.25 0
BetVictor 0 1.70 / 1.99 0 1.70 / 1.99 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.35 7.10
-1.25 3.90 5.20
-1.00 3.42 5.95
-0.75 2.53 3.85
-0.25 1.84 2.60
0 1.56 2.21
+0.25 1.40 1.82
+0.75 1.18 1.42
+1.00 1.07 1.23
+1.25 1.10 1.18
+1.50 1.04 1.14

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
0 1.88 1.92

BetVictor Main 0

AH Home Away
0 1.70 1.99

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.30 7.20
-1.25 3.84 5.20
-1.00 3.34 6.10
-0.75 2.49 3.90
-0.25 1.81 2.62
0 1.54 2.25
+0.25 1.38 1.81
+0.75 1.18 1.42
+1.00 1.06 1.24
+1.25 1.10 1.18
+1.50 1.03 1.15

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.23 3.16
-0.25 1.93 2.74
0 1.60 2.32
+0.25 1.43 1.88
+0.50 1.33 1.65
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
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