Independ. Rivadavia vs Atletico Tucuman Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Independ. Rivadavia
Final Score
1 – 1
(HT 1-0)
Atletico Tucuman
Kick-off 22:00 Stadium Estadio Regional de Los Andes

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Independ. Rivadavia opened at -0.25 against Atletico Tucuman in the Copa Argentina. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 6 of 6 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.12
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.37 / 1.23
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Independ. Rivadavia -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 6 / 6 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.13
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.13 AH points more toward Atletico Tucuman than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Atletico Tucuman +0.25
@ 3.20
Best Available Price · Betano
Line Edge
0.13
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.86
Price Advantage
+72.0%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
6 / 6 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
-0.25
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
03:00
Opening
-0.25
20:09
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
21:59
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.76 / 3.18 -0.25 1.77 / 3.02 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.82 / 3.08 -0.25 1.88 / 3.18 -0.25 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.85 / 2.85 -0.25 1.82 / 3.00 -0.25 0
1xBet -0.25 1.84 / 3.18 -0.25 1.86 / 3.02 -0.25 0
Betano -0.25 1.85 / 3.20 -0.25 1.88 / 3.20 -0.25 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.69 / 3.10 -0.25 1.77 / 2.95 -0.25 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.25 9.00
-1.25 3.80 8.45
-1.00 3.34 7.90
-0.75 2.46 4.75
-0.25 1.86 3.02
0 1.50 2.62
+0.25 1.30 1.96
+0.75 1.12 1.43
+1.00 1.02 1.24

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.00 3.55 7.00
-0.75 2.68 4.40
-0.50 2.20 3.45
-0.25 1.82 3.00
0 1.55 2.38
+0.25 1.38 1.98
+0.50 1.30 1.65
+0.75 1.20 1.45
+1.00 1.10 1.27

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.06 3.45
-0.25 1.77 2.95
0 1.46 2.46
+0.25 1.33 1.91
+0.50 1.25 1.65

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.22 3.75
-0.25 1.88 3.20
+0.25 1.38 1.98
+0.50 1.29 1.70

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.25 9.00
-1.25 3.80 8.50
-1.00 3.34 7.90
-0.75 2.46 4.75
-0.25 1.77 3.02
0 1.46 2.54
+0.25 1.30 1.87
+0.75 1.12 1.43
+1.00 1.02 1.24

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.21 3.74
-0.25 1.88 3.18
0 1.50 2.62
+0.25 1.35 1.98
+0.50 1.27 1.68
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

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