VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

VfB Stuttgart
Oct 20, 2026 - 19:00
1.59 1.90
Atletico Madrid
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
+0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 6 books · 50% agreement · Moderate
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

VfB Stuttgart opened at -0.25 against Atletico Madrid in the UEFA Champions League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 6 valid books, with 50% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is +0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.29
VfB Stuttgart +0.29

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
VfB Stuttgart -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.54
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 6 books · Moderate

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.54 AH points more toward Atletico Madrid than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Atletico Madrid +0.25
@ 2.05
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.54
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.58
Price Advantage
+29.7%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 6 valid books · 50% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP +0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
+0.25
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 2.18 / 1.70 0 2.18 / 1.70 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP +0.25 1.88 / 1.52 +0.25 1.88 / 1.52 — 0
Bet365 0 2.10 / 1.78 -0.25 2.35 / 2.05 — -0.25
1xBet -0.25 2.59 / 1.92 -0.25 2.59 / 1.92 — 0
Betano -0.50 2.80 / 2.32 -0.50 2.92 / 2.22 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.42 / 1.88 -0.25 2.42 / 1.88 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.29
xG 1.59 / 1.90 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.35
VfB Stuttgart @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.73
VfB Stuttgart @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.35 vs 2.73
Market price is 13.9% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 11.50 7.70
-2.00 10.50 6.95
-1.75 7.12 4.87
-1.50 5.45 3.92
-1.25 5.12 3.54
-1.00 4.70 3.22
-0.75 3.40 2.52
-0.25 2.59 1.92
0 2.25 1.75
+0.25 1.83 1.59
+0.75 1.46 1.28
+1.00 1.30 1.15
+1.25 1.23 1.13
+1.50 1.19 1.10
+1.75 1.11 1.05
+2.00 1.04 1.02

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.60 5.50
-1.50 5.25 4.15
-1.25 4.65 3.80
-1.00 4.25 3.45
-0.75 3.30 2.68
-0.50 2.68 2.30
-0.25 2.35 2.05
0 2.20 1.65
+0.25 1.75 1.58
+0.50 1.60 1.45
+0.75 1.45 1.32
+1.00 1.30 1.21
+1.25 1.25 1.18
+1.50 1.22 1.16
+1.75 1.15 1.11

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.35 2.52
-0.50 2.73 2.13
-0.25 2.42 1.88
0 2.10 1.63
+0.25 1.79 1.48
+0.50 1.61 1.38
+0.75 1.44 1.26

Betano Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.92 2.22
+0.50 1.70 1.44

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.10 4.90
-1.50 5.45 3.92
-1.25 5.10 3.56
-1.00 4.70 3.22
-0.75 3.40 2.53
-0.25 2.46 1.92
0 2.18 1.70
+0.25 1.83 1.51
+0.75 1.47 1.28
+1.00 1.30 1.15
+1.25 1.24 1.12
+1.50 1.19 1.10
+1.75 1.12 1.04

Pinnacle Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.57 2.62
-0.50 2.90 2.23
-0.25 2.56 1.97
0 2.21 1.68
+0.25 1.88 1.52
+0.50 1.67 1.41
+0.75 1.50 1.30
Primary Bets
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