Mathare United vs APS Bomet Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Mathare United
Sep 19, 2026 - 12:00 PST
1.22 1.38
APS Bomet
Opening
0
Frozen opening consensus
Current
0
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
0
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
0
4 / 5 books · 80% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Mathare United opened at 0 against APS Bomet in the FKF Premier League. The current market consensus is 0. The current consensus is 0 across 4 of 5 valid books, with 80% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.14
Mathare United +0.14

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Mathare United 0
Model–Market Gap
0.14
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

0 · 4 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.14 AH points more toward APS Bomet than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
APS Bomet 0
@ 1.93
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.14
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.82
Price Advantage
+6.0%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
4 / 5 valid books · 80% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
0
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.84 / 1.84 0 1.79 / 1.89 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.79 / 1.93 0 1.79 / 1.93 — 0
Bet365 0 1.90 / 1.90 0 1.90 / 1.90 — 0
1xBet 0 1.84 / 1.84 0 1.79 / 1.89 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.96 / 2.00 -0.25 1.96 / 2.00 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.14
xG 1.22 / 1.38 · pre-match
Market Handicap
0
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.79
Mathare United @ 0 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.23
Mathare United @ 0 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.79 vs 2.23
Market price is 19.7% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.35 6.80
-1.25 5.75 5.55
-1.00 5.15 5.60
-0.75 3.34 3.58
-0.25 2.24 2.30
0 1.79 1.89
+0.25 1.49 1.56
+0.75 1.21 1.24
+1.00 1.08 1.10
+1.25 1.08 1.07
+1.50 1.04 1.06

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
0 1.90 1.90

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.23 2.28
-0.25 1.96 2.00
0 1.65 1.68
+0.25 1.43 1.45
+0.50 1.31 1.33

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.35 6.80
-1.25 5.75 5.55
-1.00 5.15 5.60
-0.75 3.34 3.58
-0.25 2.21 2.30
0 1.79 1.89
+0.25 1.49 1.53
+0.75 1.21 1.24
+1.00 1.08 1.10
+1.25 1.08 1.07
+1.50 1.04 1.06

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.16 3.41
-0.50 2.55 2.73
-0.25 2.19 2.35
0 1.79 1.93
+0.25 1.51 1.59
+0.50 1.37 1.42
+0.75 1.24 1.28
Primary Bets
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