Castellanzese vs Oltrepò Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Castellanzese
Final Score
0 – 1
(HT 0-1)
Oltrepò
Kick-off 13:00

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Castellanzese opened at 0 against Oltrepò in the Serie D - Girone D. The current market consensus is -0.25. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Castellanzese from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.04
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.32 / 1.28
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Castellanzese -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.21
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.21 AH points more toward Oltrepò than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Oltrepò +0.25
@ 2.60
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.21
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.77
Price Advantage
+46.9%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
16:15
Opening
0
12:00
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.71 / 1.96 -0.25 1.92 / 2.43 — -0.25
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.98 / 2.48 -0.25 1.98 / 2.52 — 0
Bet365 0 1.75 / 2.05 -0.25 1.98 / 2.60 — -0.25
1xBet 0 1.71 / 1.96 -0.25 1.94 / 2.43 — -0.25
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.60 6.30
-1.00 3.72 5.35
-0.75 2.70 3.58
-0.25 1.94 2.43
0 1.63 2.08
+0.25 1.44 1.73
+0.75 1.21 1.36
+1.00 1.09 1.20
+1.50 1.06 1.13

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.40 6.00
-1.25 3.90 5.75
-1.00 3.55 5.25
-0.75 2.68 3.55
-0.50 2.30 3.00
-0.25 1.98 2.60
0 1.68 2.15
+0.25 1.48 1.82
+0.50 1.38 1.60
+0.75 1.27 1.45
+1.00 1.16 1.27
+1.25 1.14 1.24
+1.50 1.12 1.20

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.60 6.30
-1.00 3.72 5.35
-0.75 2.70 3.58
-0.25 1.92 2.43
0 1.63 2.08
+0.25 1.44 1.71
+0.75 1.21 1.36
+1.00 1.09 1.20
+1.50 1.06 1.13

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.28 2.90
-0.25 1.98 2.52
0 1.64 2.13
+0.25 1.45 1.77
+0.50 1.35 1.56
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

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