Brighton U21 vs Paris Saint-Germain U21 Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Brighton U21
Final Score
2 – 1
(HT 1-0)
Paris Saint-Germain U21
Kick-off 18:30 Stadium Elite Football Performance Centre

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Brighton U21 opened at -0.25 against Paris Saint-Germain U21 in the Premier League International Cup. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 4 valid books, with 75% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.04
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.32 / 1.28
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Brighton U21 -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 3 / 4 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.21
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.21 AH points more toward Paris Saint-Germain U21 than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Paris Saint-Germain U21 +0.25
@ 2.00
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.21
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.77
Price Advantage
+13.0%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 4 valid books · 75% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
0
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
13:19
Opening
-0.25
18:00
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
18:29
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
0
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.46 / 1.75 -0.25 2.33 / 1.81 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.36 / 1.92 0 2.05 / 1.76 0 +0.25
1xBet -0.25 2.46 / 1.75 -0.25 2.33 / 1.81 -0.25 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.13 / 1.68 -0.25 2.13 / 1.67 -0.25 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 9.60 6.95
-2.00 8.70 6.25
-1.50 5.05 3.58
-1.25 4.30 3.28
-1.00 4.30 2.97
-0.75 3.10 2.35
-0.25 2.33 1.81
0 2.07 1.61
+0.25 1.81 1.48
+0.75 1.49 1.32
+1.00 1.32 1.15
+1.25 1.25 1.14
+1.50 1.21 1.10
+2.00 1.06 1.02

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.13 1.67
0 1.90 1.48
+0.25 1.66 1.37

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.05 3.58
-1.00 4.30 2.97
-0.25 2.33 1.81
0 2.07 1.61
+0.25 1.81 1.48
+1.00 1.32 1.15
+1.50 1.21 1.10

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.53 2.21
-0.25 2.28 2.00
0 2.05 1.76
+0.25 1.83 1.60
+0.50 1.66 1.49
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
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