Renate vs Dolomiti Bellunesi Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Renate
Final Score
0 – 0
(HT 0-0)
Dolomiti Bellunesi
Kick-off 19:00 Stadium Mino Favini

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Renate opened at -0.25 against Dolomiti Bellunesi in the Serie C - Girone A. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 6 of 6 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.38
Renate -0.38

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

xG (pre-match) 1.51 / 1.09
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Renate -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 6 / 6 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.13
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.13 AH points more toward Renate than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Dolomiti Bellunesi +0.25
@ 3.05
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.13
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.17
Price Advantage
+40.6%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
6 / 6 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
-0.25
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
05:11
Opening
-0.25
18:00
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
18:59
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.78 / 1.88 -0.25 1.75 / 2.88 -0.25 -0.25
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.82 / 2.82 -0.25 1.83 / 3.05 -0.25 0
Bet365 0 1.82 / 1.98 -0.25 1.80 / 2.85 -0.25 -0.25
1xBet 0 1.78 / 1.88 -0.25 1.76 / 2.88 -0.25 -0.25
Betano -0.25 2.12 / 2.32 -0.25 1.82 / 2.85 -0.25 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.85 / 2.69 -0.25 1.78 / 2.86 -0.25 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.39 8.50
-1.50 4.10 8.30
-1.25 3.58 7.65
-1.00 3.20 7.10
-0.75 2.42 4.44
-0.25 1.76 2.88
0 1.47 2.41
+0.25 1.32 1.89
+0.75 1.14 1.44
+1.00 1.04 1.26
+1.25 1.02 1.21

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.10 6.60
-1.25 3.55 7.00
-1.00 3.30 6.60
-0.75 2.42 4.25
-0.50 2.10 3.30
-0.25 1.80 2.85
0 1.52 2.42
+0.25 1.40 2.00
+0.50 1.32 1.70
+0.75 1.21 1.52
+1.00 1.11 1.32
+1.25 1.10 1.27
+1.50 1.11 1.23

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.06 2.64
-0.25 1.78 2.86
0 1.48 2.41
+0.25 1.35 1.90
+0.50 1.41 1.66

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.07 2.72
-0.25 1.82 2.85
+0.25 1.39 1.93
+0.50 1.42 1.70

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.40 8.50
-1.50 4.10 8.30
-1.25 3.58 7.70
-1.00 3.20 7.10
-0.75 2.42 4.45
-0.25 1.75 2.88
0 1.47 2.41
+0.25 1.32 1.88
+0.75 1.14 1.44
+1.00 1.04 1.26
+1.25 1.02 1.21

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.12 3.53
-0.25 1.83 3.05
0 1.51 2.58
+0.25 1.36 2.02
+0.50 1.28 1.72
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

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