Dinamo Tirana vs Auda Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Dinamo Tirana
Final Score
4 – 0
(HT 2-0)
Auda
Kick-off 19:00 Stadium Elbasan Arena

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Dinamo Tirana opened at -0.25 against Auda in the UEFA Europa Conference League. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 6 of 7 valid books, with 86% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.04
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.32 / 1.28
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Dinamo Tirana -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 6 / 7 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.21
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.21 AH points more toward Auda than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Auda +0.25
@ 3.08
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.21
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.77
Price Advantage
+74.0%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
6 / 7 valid books · 86% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
-0.25
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
08:21
Opening
-0.25
18:00
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
18:59
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
10Bet 0 1.50 / 2.40 0 1.50 / 2.40 0 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.64 / 3.05 -0.25 1.68 / 2.95 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.68 / 3.20 -0.25 1.72 / 3.08 -0.25 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.70 / 3.00 -0.25 1.72 / 2.85 -0.25 0
1xBet -0.25 1.73 / 3.05 -0.25 1.77 / 2.95 -0.25 0
Betano -0.25 1.70 / 2.95 -0.25 1.75 / 2.92 -0.25 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.66 / 3.05 -0.25 1.67 / 2.95 -0.25 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

10Bet Main 0

AH Home Away
0 1.50 2.40

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.20 9.00
-1.50 3.34 6.95
-1.25 3.04 6.55
-1.00 2.69 6.15
-0.75 2.19 4.24
-0.25 1.77 2.95
0 1.50 2.65
+0.25 1.32 2.10
+0.75 1.15 1.55
+1.00 1.06 1.36
+1.25 1.05 1.29
+1.50 1.04 1.24

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.70 6.80
-1.25 3.30 6.40
-1.00 2.85 5.90
-0.75 2.25 4.10
-0.50 1.98 3.30
-0.25 1.72 2.85
0 1.50 2.50
+0.25 1.40 2.08
+0.50 1.32 1.82
+0.75 1.23 1.62
+1.00 1.13 1.40
+1.25 1.12 1.32
+1.50 1.10 1.26

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 1.91 3.30
-0.25 1.67 2.95
0 1.44 2.54
+0.25 1.33 2.03
+0.50 1.27 1.77

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.75 2.92
+0.25 1.40 2.05

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.20 9.00
-1.50 3.34 6.95
-1.25 3.04 6.55
-1.00 2.69 6.15
-0.75 2.19 4.25
-0.25 1.68 2.95
0 1.46 2.57
+0.25 1.32 2.00
+0.75 1.16 1.55
+1.00 1.06 1.36
+1.25 1.05 1.29
+1.50 1.04 1.24

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 1.99 3.39
-0.25 1.72 3.08
0 1.45 2.64
+0.25 1.35 2.10
+0.50 1.28 1.83
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
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