Anderlecht vs PAOK Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Anderlecht
Final Score
3 – 2
(HT 1-1)
PAOK
Kick-off 18:30 Stadium Lotto Park

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Anderlecht opened at 0 against PAOK in the UEFA Europa League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The closing line is 0. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Anderlecht from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 9 valid books, with 33% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is +0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.20
Anderlecht +0.20

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

xG (pre-match) 1.45 / 1.67
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Anderlecht -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 3 / 10 books · Weak
Model–Market Gap
0.45
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.45 AH points more toward PAOK than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
WAIT

The current market does not provide sufficient validation for a tradable signal.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 9 valid books · 33% agreement · Weak

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → 0
Pinnacle Closing
0
Consensus Closing
0
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
00:23
Opening
0
18:00
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
18:29
PRE1
0
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP +0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
+0.25
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
10Bet 0 2.10 / 1.70 0 1.95 / 1.80 0 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 2.13 / 1.67 -0.25 2.45 / 1.89 0 -0.25
Betfair DEEP +1.50 1.13 / 1.11 +1.50 1.13 / 1.11 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 2.15 / 1.70 +0.25 1.87 / 1.51 0 +0.25
Bet365 0 2.25 / 1.62 0 2.02 / 1.78 0 0
1xBet +0.25 1.76 / 1.55 -0.25 2.60 / 1.89 0 -0.50
Unibet -0.50 2.88 / 2.10 -0.50 2.50 / 2.32 -0.50 0
Betano +0.25 1.83 / 1.55 +0.25 1.85 / 1.53 +0.25 0
Superbet -0.50 2.82 / 2.22 -0.50 2.82 / 2.22 -0.50 0
BetVictor 0 2.10 / 1.63 -0.25 2.47 / 1.92 -0.25 -0.25
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

10Bet Main 0

AH Home Away
0 1.95 1.80

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 12.00 9.00
-2.00 10.50 8.20
-1.75 7.85 5.40
-1.50 5.95 4.20
-1.25 5.50 3.78
-1.00 5.05 3.35
-0.75 3.42 2.52
-0.25 2.60 1.89
0 2.22 1.72
+0.25 1.78 1.55
+0.75 1.41 1.24
+1.00 1.24 1.10
+1.25 1.19 1.08
+1.50 1.15 1.07
+1.75 1.09 1.02
+2.00 1.02 1.05

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.90 4.65
-1.25 5.50 4.15
-1.00 4.80 3.70
-0.75 3.45 2.68
-0.50 2.85 2.25
-0.25 2.42 2.00
0 2.02 1.78
+0.25 1.80 1.52
+0.50 1.62 1.40
+0.75 1.45 1.30
+1.00 1.26 1.18
+1.25 1.22 1.15
+1.50 1.18 1.13

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.35 2.64
-0.50 2.82 2.20
-0.25 2.47 1.92
0 2.10 1.63
+0.25 1.76 1.46
+0.50 1.57 1.36
+0.75 1.40 1.26

Betano Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.65 2.70
-0.50 2.92 2.27
-0.25 2.57 2.00
+0.25 1.85 1.53
+0.50 1.67 1.44
+0.75 1.50 1.31

Betfair Main —

AH Home Away
-2.50 11.00 12.00
-1.50 6.00 5.50
+1.50 1.13 1.11
+2.50 1.02 1.02

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 9.20 9.00
-2.00 8.60 8.20
-1.75 7.90 5.40
-1.50 5.95 4.20
-1.25 5.50 3.78
-1.00 5.05 3.35
-0.75 3.42 2.53
-0.25 2.45 1.89
0 2.14 1.66
+0.25 1.78 1.46
+0.75 1.42 1.24
+1.00 1.24 1.10
+1.25 1.19 1.08
+1.50 1.15 1.07
+1.75 1.09 1.02

Pinnacle Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-1.00 5.00 3.54
-0.75 3.76 2.69
-0.50 2.97 2.26
-0.25 2.61 1.98
0 2.23 1.67
+0.25 1.87 1.51
+0.50 1.65 1.40
+0.75 1.48 1.27
+1.00 1.30 1.18

Superbet Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.70 4.25
-0.50 2.82 2.22
+0.50 1.58 1.38
+1.50 1.18 1.11

Unibet Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.00 4.40
-0.50 2.50 2.32
+0.50 1.52 1.45
+1.50 1.15 1.12
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

No primary bet was issued pre-match. Decision was WAIT. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
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