ES Zarzis vs US Monastirienne Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

ES Zarzis
Final Score
1 – 2
(HT 1-1)
US Monastirienne
Kick-off 15:00 Stadium Abdessalem Kazouz Stadium

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

ES Zarzis opened at -0.25 against US Monastirienne in the Ligue 1. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 5 valid books, with 80% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.16
ES Zarzis +0.16

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

xG (pre-match) 1.21 / 1.39
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
ES Zarzis -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 4 / 5 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.41
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.41 AH points more toward US Monastirienne than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
US Monastirienne +0.25
@ 2.84
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.41
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.60
Price Advantage
+77.5%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 5 valid books · 80% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
-0.25
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
17:19
Opening
-0.25
13:12
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
14:59
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.98 / 2.52 -0.25 1.94 / 2.66 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.07 / 2.66 -0.25 2.04 / 2.84 -0.25 0
Bet365 0 1.70 / 2.10 0 1.70 / 2.10 0 0
1xBet -0.25 2.00 / 2.52 -0.25 1.96 / 2.69 -0.25 0
Betano -0.25 2.02 / 2.62 -0.25 2.02 / 2.65 -0.25 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.05 7.70
-1.25 4.60 7.20
-1.00 4.10 6.70
-0.75 2.83 4.20
-0.25 1.96 2.69
0 1.57 2.19
+0.25 1.36 1.72
+0.75 1.15 1.33
+1.00 1.05 1.16
+1.25 1.03 1.13
+1.50 1.02 1.10

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.25 7.00
-1.25 4.65 6.40
-1.00 4.15 5.90
-0.75 3.00 3.80
-0.50 2.42 3.10
-0.25 2.08 2.60
0 1.70 2.10
+0.25 1.48 1.72
+0.50 1.35 1.52
+0.75 1.25 1.38
+1.00 1.13 1.22
+1.25 1.12 1.18
+1.50 1.10 1.16

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.02 2.65
+0.25 1.45 1.75

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.70 9.00
-1.50 5.10 7.70
-1.25 4.60 7.20
-1.00 4.10 6.65
-0.75 2.83 4.15
-0.25 1.94 2.66
0 1.57 2.19
+0.25 1.37 1.70
+0.75 1.16 1.33
+1.00 1.05 1.16
+1.25 1.03 1.13
+1.50 1.03 1.10

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.43 3.38
-0.25 2.04 2.84
0 1.60 2.29
+0.25 1.38 1.77
+0.50 1.28 1.53
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

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