Racing Ferrol vs Real Avilés Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Racing Ferrol
Final Score
1 – 1
(HT 1-1)
Real Avilés
Kick-off 17:00

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Racing Ferrol opened at 0 against Real Avilés in the Friendlies Clubs. The current market consensus is -0.25. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Racing Ferrol from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 6 valid books, with 67% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.05
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.33 / 1.27
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Racing Ferrol -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 4 / 6 books · Moderate
Model–Market Gap
0.20
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.20 AH points more toward Real Avilés than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Real Avilés +0.25
@ 2.54
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.20
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.79
Price Advantage
+41.9%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 6 valid books · 67% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
02:24
Opening
0
16:05
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.59 / 2.17 -0.25 1.82 / 2.49 — -0.25
Pinnacle SHARP -0.50 2.00 / 3.19 -0.25 1.89 / 2.54 — +0.25
Bet365 0 1.78 / 2.02 0 1.78 / 2.02 — 0
1xBet 0 1.61 / 2.20 -0.25 1.87 / 2.49 — -0.25
Superbet -0.50 2.05 / 2.85 -0.50 2.05 / 2.85 — 0
BetVictor 0 1.54 / 2.17 -0.25 1.83 / 2.50 — -0.25
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.96 6.00
-1.00 3.20 5.15
-0.75 2.46 3.58
-0.25 1.87 2.49
0 1.60 2.22
+0.25 1.42 1.85
+0.75 1.21 1.43
+1.00 1.10 1.26
+1.50 1.06 1.17

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
0 1.78 2.02

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.83 2.50
0 1.56 2.14
+0.25 1.41 1.78

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.96 6.00
-1.00 3.20 5.15
-0.75 2.46 3.58
-0.25 1.82 2.49
0 1.58 2.19
+0.25 1.42 1.80
+0.75 1.21 1.43
+1.00 1.10 1.26
+1.50 1.06 1.17

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.14 2.88
-0.25 1.89 2.54
0 1.60 2.21
+0.25 1.44 1.85
+0.50 1.35 1.64

Superbet Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.05 2.85
+0.50 1.32 1.61
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
Primary Bets
More