Prediction Audit: Racing Ferrol vs Real Avilés Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Racing Ferrol

Aug 13, 2026 - 17:00

1 1.33

1 1.27

xG Accuracy: 85%

Real Avilés

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Racing Ferrol at 36.7%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Racing Ferrol Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Racing Ferrol	36.7%	44.3%	-7.6 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.4%	28.4%	+1.0 pp	Aligned
Real Avilés	33.9%	27.3%	+6.6 pp	Model Higher

The closing market estimates Racing Ferrol's win probability at 44.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.7%, a difference of 7.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Racing Ferrol. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

1X2: model leaned Racing Ferrol; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Racing Ferrol by 7.6 percentage points (44.3% vs model 36.7%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 13, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Racing Ferrol 36.7% · Draw 29.4% · Real Avilés 33.9%
- xG · Racing Ferrol 1.33 — Real Avilés 1.27
Aug 13, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Racing Ferrol 2.01 · Draw 3.13 · Real Avilés 3.26
- Implied 1X2 · Racing Ferrol 44.3% · Draw 28.4% · Real Avilés 27.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 13, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Racing Ferrol 2.01 · Draw 3.13 · Real Avilés 3.26
- Implied 1X2 · Racing Ferrol 44.3% · Draw 28.4% · Real Avilés 27.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 13, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 62/100

Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 07, 2026 · 01:37 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3151783

Closing Odds 2.01

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Racing Ferrol 1–1 Real Avilés

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Friendlies Clubs
Fixture: Racing Ferrol vs Real Avilés
Kickoff: 2026-08-13 17:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.7% · Draw 29.4% · Away 33.9%
xG (showing): Racing Ferrol 1.33 — Real Avilés 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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