OFI vs Asteras Tripolis Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

OFI
Sep 20, 2026 - 16:00
1.08 0.98
Asteras Tripolis
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
5 / 5 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

OFI opened at -0.25 against Asteras Tripolis in the Super League 1. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 5 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.09
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
OFI -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.16
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 5 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.16 AH points more toward Asteras Tripolis than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Asteras Tripolis +0.25
@ 2.82
Best Available Price · Betano
Line Edge
0.16
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.79
Price Advantage
+57.5%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 5 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.80 / 2.72 -0.25 1.86 / 2.57 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.88 / 2.90 -0.25 1.96 / 2.73 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.88 / 2.75 -0.25 1.90 / 2.75 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.84 / 2.72 -0.25 1.90 / 2.57 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.91 / 2.85 -0.25 1.93 / 2.82 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.09
xG 1.08 / 0.98 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.96
OFI @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.27
OFI @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.96 vs 2.27
Market price is 13.7% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.64 8.70
-1.50 4.33 6.65
-1.25 3.90 6.15
-1.00 3.42 5.70
-0.75 2.53 3.74
-0.25 1.90 2.57
0 1.60 2.23
+0.25 1.41 1.83
+0.75 1.19 1.41
+1.00 1.08 1.23
+1.25 1.06 1.18
+1.50 1.05 1.14

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.25 3.90 7.00
-1.00 3.45 6.40
-0.75 2.60 4.10
-0.50 2.20 3.30
-0.25 1.90 2.75
0 1.58 2.35
+0.25 1.42 1.90
+0.50 1.32 1.65
+0.75 1.23 1.48
+1.00 1.12 1.30
+1.25 1.10 1.24

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.22 3.25
-0.25 1.93 2.82
+0.25 1.45 1.91
+0.50 1.36 1.70

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.65 8.70
-1.50 4.33 6.65
-1.25 3.90 6.15
-1.00 3.42 5.70
-0.75 2.53 3.75
-0.25 1.86 2.57
0 1.60 2.23
+0.25 1.41 1.79
+0.75 1.19 1.41
+1.00 1.08 1.23
+1.25 1.06 1.18
+1.50 1.05 1.14

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.71 4.08
-0.50 2.27 3.15
-0.25 1.96 2.73
0 1.63 2.30
+0.25 1.46 1.88
+0.50 1.36 1.65
+0.75 1.24 1.47
Primary Bets
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