Predictions / Football / Greece. Super League 1 / OFI vs Asteras Tripolis

Prediction Audit: OFI vs Asteras Tripolis Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

OFI OFI
Sep 20, 2026 - 16:00
2 1.08
2 0.98
xG Accuracy: 59%
Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected OFI at 35.7%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 OFI Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1, 2-0 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices OFI higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: OFI -7.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
OFI 35.7% 43.0% -7.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 33.8% 30.3% +3.5 pp Aligned
Asteras Tripolis 30.5% 26.7% +3.8 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates OFI's win probability at 43.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.7%, a difference of 7.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on OFI. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on OFI by 7.3 percentage points (43.0% vs model 35.7%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 20, 2026 · 19:35 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · OFI 35.7% · Draw 33.8% · Asteras Tripolis 30.5%
    • xG · OFI 1.08 — Asteras Tripolis 0.98
  2. Sep 20, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · OFI 2.24 · Draw 3.18 · Asteras Tripolis 3.61
    • Implied 1X2 · OFI 43.0% · Draw 30.3% · Asteras Tripolis 26.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 20, 2026 · 15:55 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · OFI 2.24 · Draw 3.18 · Asteras Tripolis 3.61
    • Implied 1X2 · OFI 43.0% · Draw 30.3% · Asteras Tripolis 26.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 20, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 63/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:51 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8698636

Closing Odds 2.24
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · OFI 2–2 Asteras Tripolis
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Super League 1
  • Fixture: OFI vs Asteras Tripolis
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-20 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): OFI 1.08 — Asteras Tripolis 0.98 (total xG ≈ 2.06)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 21, 2026 (UTC)

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Super League 1 Super League 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Panathinaikos 4 4 0 0 12
2 PAOK 4 3 0 1 9
3 OFI 4 3 0 1 9
4 Panetolikos 4 3 0 1 9
5 AEK Athens FC 4 2 2 0 8
6 Olympiakos Piraeus 4 2 1 1 7
7 Aris Thessalonikis 5 2 1 2 7
8 Iraklis 1908 5 1 3 1 6
9 Kifisia 5 1 2 2 5
10 Kalamata 4 1 1 2 4
11 Atromitos 5 0 2 3 2
12 Volos NFC 4 0 2 2 2
13 Asteras Tripolis 4 0 1 3 1
14 Levadiakos 4 0 1 3 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Panathinaikos 4 11 2 +9 12
2 AEK Athens FC 4 11 2 +9 8
3 PAOK 4 9 4 +5 9
4 Panetolikos 4 7 4 +3 9
5 OFI 4 6 2 +4 9
6 Kalamata 4 6 7 -1 4
7 Aris Thessalonikis 5 5 10 -5 7
8 Iraklis 1908 5 4 6 -2 6
9 Kifisia 5 4 7 -3 5
10 Atromitos 5 4 7 -3 2
11 Olympiakos Piraeus 4 3 2 +1 7
12 Volos NFC 4 3 7 -4 2
13 Asteras Tripolis 4 2 7 -5 1
14 Levadiakos 4 0 8 -8 1
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Olympiakos Piraeus 4 4.9 1.1 +3.8 7
2 Aris Thessalonikis 5 4.5 2.8 +1.7 7
3 Panathinaikos 4 3.9 2.2 +1.7 12
4 Kifisia 5 2.2 1.1 +1.1 5
5 AEK Athens FC 4 2.5 1.5 +1.0 8
6 Panetolikos 4 3.0 2.2 +0.8 9
7 PAOK 4 4.7 4.3 +0.4 9
8 Asteras Tripolis 4 3.0 3.1 -0.1 1
9 OFI 4 3.4 3.7 -0.3 9
10 Volos NFC 4 0.8 1.4 -0.6 2
11 Iraklis 1908 5 1.3 3.0 -1.7 6
12 Levadiakos 4 1.6 3.4 -1.8 1
13 Kalamata 4 2.9 5.4 -2.5 4
14 Atromitos 5 1.7 5.1 -3.4 2