Yeovil Town vs Worthing Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Yeovil Town
Final Score
1 – 1
(HT 0-1)
Worthing
Kick-off 18:45 Stadium Huish Park

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Yeovil Town opened at -0.25 against Worthing in the National League. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 6 valid books, with 83% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.09
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.25 / 1.35
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Yeovil Town -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 5 / 6 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.34
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.34 AH points more toward Worthing than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Worthing +0.25
@ 2.62
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.34
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.66
Price Advantage
+57.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 6 valid books · 83% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
-0.25
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
00:30
Opening
-0.25
18:00
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
18:47
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.81 / 2.43 -0.25 1.80 / 2.43 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.88 / 2.57 -0.25 1.90 / 2.62 -0.25 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.90 / 2.50 -0.25 1.88 / 2.60 -0.25 0
1xBet -0.25 1.83 / 2.45 -0.25 1.82 / 2.45 -0.25 0
Betano +0.25 1.50 / 1.90 +0.25 1.52 / 1.90 +0.25 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.83 / 2.51 -0.25 1.82 / 2.53 -0.25 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 6.95 9.60
-1.75 4.80 7.70
-1.50 3.74 5.75
-1.25 3.35 5.31
-1.00 2.97 4.85
-0.75 2.36 3.43
-0.25 1.82 2.45
0 1.58 2.17
+0.25 1.45 1.84
+0.75 1.24 1.48
+1.00 1.11 1.30
+1.25 1.09 1.24
+1.50 1.07 1.19
+1.75 1.03 1.12

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.55 5.90
-1.25 3.30 5.50
-1.00 3.00 5.00
-0.75 2.38 3.55
-0.50 2.08 2.85
-0.25 1.88 2.60
0 1.60 2.30
+0.25 1.48 1.92
+0.50 1.40 1.72
+0.75 1.27 1.55
+1.00 1.17 1.38
+1.25 1.15 1.32
+1.50 1.13 1.27

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.82 2.53
0 1.58 2.19
+0.25 1.44 1.85

Betano Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.87 2.50
+0.25 1.52 1.90

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.80 7.70
-1.50 3.75 5.75
-1.25 3.34 5.30
-1.00 2.97 4.85
-0.75 2.35 3.42
-0.25 1.80 2.43
0 1.59 2.15
+0.25 1.44 1.82
+0.75 1.23 1.47
+1.00 1.11 1.30
+1.25 1.09 1.24
+1.50 1.07 1.19
+1.75 1.03 1.12

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.53 3.56
-0.50 2.14 2.94
-0.25 1.90 2.62
0 1.65 2.29
+0.25 1.51 1.95
+0.50 1.41 1.74
+0.75 1.30 1.54
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

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